Bold Predictions for the Buffalo Bills' Post-Bye Stretch Run

The Buffalo Bills are locked in atop the AFC East at their bye week, with a critical Week 8 contest against the Baltimore Ravens on the post-break horizon.

What should we expect from the AFC's Super Bowl favorite between now and Week 18?

Here are three bold predictions for what is sure to be an entertaining run toward the playoffs.

By Season's End, the Defense Will Be Above Average in Most Major Categories

Yes, it's been ugly. And yes, they have a lot of work to do. But I actually chalk up a large portion of Buffalo's defensive problems thus far to three dynamics that should give fans hope:

They're still adjusting to a brand-new defensive coordinator, and Jim Leonhard is still adjusting to them.

This is the youngest defense in the NFL.

Per ESPN's Power Index , they've faced the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL thus far, but will face the ninth-easiest the rest of the way.

Each of those facts indicates there is room for growth and adaptation.

They aren't lacking raw skill. Are the off-ball linebackers low-ceiling starters? Sure. Are they devoid of current elite talent throughout the back seven? Absolutely. But the lion's share of the defensive issues thus far stem from this being a green unit trying to acclimate to a new scheme.

A lot of what has gone wrong is related to issues with communication and assignments, rather than an inability to make plays.

Leonhard and Joe Brady have exacerbated that challenge by varying personnel far too often for the defense to find any sort of groove. I understand the desire to give young backups like Kaleb Elarms-Orr and T.J. Parker reps, but 20 players are averaging more than 12 defensive snaps per game. That's overkill under the current circumstances, and injuries do little to explain it: The starting defenders have missed only nine combined games through six weeks.

On top of this, Leonhard seemingly has not become comfortable enough to get creative with schemes and disguises. What you see is what you get, and it's pretty limited in terms of blitzing and press coverage.

The result thus far is a 32nd-ranked defense with the second-worst EPA allowed per play in the NFL, albeit against a very tough schedule featuring established offenses and weapons like Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Ashton Jeanty.

I mean, a staggering 33 percent of their snaps in pass defense this season have come against the reigning MVP and reigning MVP runner-up.

But you can see the potential. Rousseau is off to the best start of his career. He and Deone Walker look like legitimate All-Pro candidates. Bradley Chubb will eventually get his, and there's no shortage of depth up front. Christian Benford has already recovered from an ugly start as the top cover guy, while physical rookie Davison Igbinosun is improving quickly. He's already leapfrogged Maxwell Hairston, who wasn't cutting it as a starter but might now at least be the best No. 4 corner in the league.

Soon, the recently signed Tre'Davious White will be back in the mix as well. That's a pretty damn strong group of five corners.

Safety remains a concern considering the obvious C.J. Gardner-Johnson problem, but again, CJGJ and Cole Bishop do bring plenty of workable talent to the table as a duo.

With time, Leonhard and the coaching staff should be able to tap into that talent more effectively, especially as the stakes increase and they rely more heavily on their core players, who should cut down on communication breakdowns and blown coverages as Leonhard's first season wears on.

Last year, the run defense was the issue. This season, the Bills have fixed that problem. Now I expect a pass defense that ranked in the top 10 in EPA allowed per pass play last season to gradually return to respectability as players become more comfortable in the scheme and face a softer schedule down the stretch.

We'll See a Lot More of Ty Johnson and Ray Davis

It was obvious that James Cook actually changed his grip on the football in a Week 6 victory over the Raiders, which was necessary considering the veteran's four fumbles in the opening five weeks.

That said, it should be pointed out that Cook was going up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL—a unit that to that point had surrendered an AFC-worst 5.2 yards per attempt on the ground—and that in this case, Cook actually averaged a season-low 4.3 yards per carry.

To be clear, it was still a solid overall performance featuring 153 scrimmage yards. But I couldn't help but notice that with the game on the line in the second half, Cook mustered just 33 yards on his final 11 rushes (3.0 per carry). And I can't help but wonder if he's shifting his focus to ball security at the expense of some productivity.

The fumbling issue is no fluke. It's a significant problem. The man has coughed up the ball nine times in his last 15 games, plus once in last year's playoffs.

Most fumbles in the last calendar year: 1. Cook (10) 2. Bijan Robinson (5) T-3. Aaron Jones (4) T-3. Cam Skattebo (4) T-3. Jonathan Taylor (4)

I believe Brady and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael are going to eventually reduce Cook's workload, either because his fumbling habit bites them again, or because the specter of another fumble impacts his production and the staff's approach to backfield reps.

Ideally, it's more of the latter—a proactive attempt at preservation. And the offense might actually be better off that way in the long run, considering that the 27-year-old Cook has 989 touches since the start of 2023.

Besides, Johnson and Davis have earned it. Johnson averaged a stellar 4.5 yards per carry in his first three seasons as a Bill and has made a strong enough impact as a receiving weapon out of the backfield to keep defenses vulnerable when he takes handoffs. Davis averaged 4.7 yards per rush last year and has proven to be a tough back to take down, even if he's rarely going to pop off for an explosive play.

And critically, Johnson has just two fumbles on his last 226 touches, while Davis has yet to fumble on 206 career touches.

So while I expect that Cook will remain the top dog barring a true ball-security meltdown, I also think we'll see a lot more variation in the offensive backfield between now and January.

The Bills Secure the Top Seed in the AFC

My belief that the defense will recover and at least become more of an asset than a liability was likely a clue that I have this team not only returning to the throne in the AFC East, but also capturing the No. 1 seed in the conference for the first time this century.

It's time, and the path is actually somewhat clear. They don't own that top spot right now but actually control their own destiny for it because they'll host the thus-far-undefeated Chiefs on Thanksgiving.

Barring something catastrophic between now and then, the Bills will likely be favored in that matchup given their home-field and rest advantages against an aging Kansas City roster. That helps explain why sportsbooks give Buffalo and Kansas City similar odds to win the AFC despite the Chiefs' edge in the loss column.

Within the East, the Patriots had a historically soft schedule last year. But their remaining 2026 slate is actually much more challenging than Buffalo's, based on ESPN's Power Index.

Elsewhere, the 4-2 Broncos don't appear to be even a remote threat considering their glaring offensive struggles through six weeks. They rank 26th in terms of offensive EPA per play and will have their hands full just chasing down the Chiefs considering Kansas City's blowout Week 1 victory over Denver.

The AFC North's teams appear intent on cannibalizing one another. The Steelers lack firepower, the Ravens are facing a gauntlet the rest of the way, and we know better than to purchase Bengals stock.

The Jaguars are worth monitoring in the AFC South, but that Week 6 loss to the Texans in London was a killer for a team that plays just four more games in Jacksonville the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has the league's clear-cut MVP favorite in Josh Allen, who has positioned himself as the frontrunner for that award despite the fact his top receiver has been on the field for just 34 percent of the team's offensive snaps this season.

Now imagine Allen with a healthy DJ Moore and significantly more support from a settled-in Leonhard defense. Combine that with what we already know they can get from Cook and his backfield colleagues as well as a veteran offensive line, and the ingredients are all there.

Fans might find themselves frustrated by the fact the Bills have been winning ugly this season, but it's early. They're experiencing growing pains defensively and yet still find themselves at 5-1 at a perfectly timed bye.

Following a much-needed two-week stretch that should be used to both get healthy and iron out the kinks associated with substantial coaching changes, look for the Bills to hit their stride in November and December, culminating in another break via a first-round bye come January.