Week 6 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our best bets for Sunday's games

Week 6 of the NFL season began with a Denver Broncos 17-14 overtime win against the Seattle Seahawks. The Broncos blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead, but held on, thanks to two Sam Darnold interceptions.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Corbie Craig, Michael Fiddle, Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond and Matt Russell combine to give their best bets for Week 6 of the NFL season.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5) in London

Pond : Brenton Strange might be the hottest tight end in the NFL not named Trey McBride right now.

After collecting just seven receptions for 72 yards in Jacksonville's first three games, the Penn State product has caught fire, racking up 14 catches on 16 targets for 163 yards in the Jaguars' back-to-back wins against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. He also boasted a team-best 26.2% target share in those wins.

Now, Strange and Jacksonville face a Texans defense that has amassed 20 sacks, including a league-high 7 from Will Anderson Jr. The Texans are third in sack percentage and 10th in total pressures.

Lawrence is going to face the heat from Houston's nasty defensive line all day long, meaning he's going to have to get the ball out quickly to his receivers. And that's why I think Strange, who has become one of his two favorite targets — the other being Parker Washington — will prosper a third consecutive week in this showdown.

Back him to find the end zone and hit this mini ladder of receptions at plus money.

Bets: TE Brenton Strange anytime TD (+330) | 5+ receptions (+136) | 6+ receptions (+265)

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7.5, 43.5)

Russell: Drake Maye has a particular set of skills.

Maye's quarterbacking "super power" is two-fold: An ability to scramble and a nice deep-ball. During the Patriots' two-game resurgence — wins over the Bills and Raiders — Maye ran 15 times for 79 yards, and was able to hit big shots against two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (both in the bottom-quarter of the league in Dropback EPA/Play and Success Rate).

This week looks a little trickier, and not just because the Jets are sixth and 12th in those metrics when adjusted for garbage time and turnovers.

Will Campbell's been upgraded from doubtful, but he and right tackle Morgan Moses are both listed as questionable, on an offensive line that's given up sacks at the best of times (47 during the regular season last year, and 11 in five games this year). Until recently, that might not have been an issue against the Jets, but first-round pick David Bailey got home three times last week, and New York has 17 sacks and the seventh-best pass-rush win-rate in the league (according to ESPN).

The Jets defense struggles against the run, but with TreVeyon Henderson out, the Patriots will have to go back to the plodding-version of their run game with Rhamondre Stevenson to take the heat off Maye.

As for the Jets, Geno Smith must be staring at his weather app this week, with fingers crossed. The grim conditions for his two home games this season have tamped down his numbers, as his best games have come in beautiful summer weather at Tennessee and indoors against the Lions. While those defenses aren't impressive, Smith's bugaboo last season — interceptions — has been taken out of the equation this season completely.

On what should be crisp-but-sunny autumn conditions in Foxborough, Smith could replicate the nice day he had against the Patriots defense in Week 1 last season (24-of-34, 362 yards, TD, INT) before the Raiders' offensive line (and season) fell apart. With a pass-block win-rate as good as their defensive line numbers, Smith should have the time and conditions to keep up with Maye.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 39.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pond : When it comes to bare cupboards, there might not be any more empty than the one housing the Steelers' wide receivers.

Roman Wilson, Michael Pittman and Ben Skowronek are hurt. And they've all been ruled out in Pittsburgh's clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

So, where does QB Aaron Rodgers turn to complement DK Metcalf down in Florida? Enter Pat Freiermuth.

The standout tight end is favorite target for Rodgers when the Steelers are deep in the opposition's territory, catching four touchdowns, including two in last week's win against the Indianapolis Colts. And things got so thin at wide receiver that Freiermuth actually lined up in the relatively foreign position to him.

Now, Rodgers, Freiermuth and the Pittsburgh offense face a Tampa Bay defense allowing the sixth-most points to tight ends this season. And that should mean chances for Freiermuth in the red zone.

I like the numbers we're getting on Freiermuth to score and to clear his receptions total. Rodgers loves him and so do we at these prices.

Bets: TE Pat Freiermuth and anytime TD (+320, BetMGM) and over 3.5 receptions (+116, FanDuel)

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5, 51.5)

Jacob: The NFL's schedule-makers didn't do any favors for the 2026 Los Angeles Rams.

First, they sent the Rams to Australia for a divisional game against one of the league's best teams (San Francisco). Then, after a Monday night home game against the Giants, the Rams hit the road for consecutive games against Denver and Philadelphia before returning home to play Buffalo.

For context, the 49ers, Broncos, Eagles and Bills posted a combined 49-19 record last season. Add several key injuries to that early-season gauntlet, and it's hardly surprising Los Angeles is off to a 2-3 start.

Now, for the first time, the Rams are home for consecutive games. And they get a cupcake opponent that has lost 18 of its last 20 games while covering the point spread just six times. Isolate the last 10 contests, and Arizona is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS while allowing an average of 34.7 PPG. This includes two blowout losses to the Rams (45-17 and 37-20).

Yes, Arizona got a last-minute backdoor cover three weeks ago in a 36-30 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog. But the 49ers were in a lookahead spot that day, with games against Denver and at Seattle on deck. This week, the Cardinals face a focused — and angry — Rams squad that is eager to show why it remains a top three Super Bowl contender.

Look for the Matthew Stafford-led offense to once again light up a wretched Cardinals defense. And look for L.A.'s stop unit to have its best performance since a 28-6 Week 2 win over the Giants.

Pond: Like my colleague, I think the Rams are going to lay the smack down on the Cardinals after that gutting Week 5 defeat against the Bills. That should translate into Arizona finding itself in another deep hole early on in this affair.

So, what does that mean for the Cardinals and quarterback Jacoby Brissett? Air out, baby. There will be no other options.

And one of the weapons Brissett will again target often is Kendrick Bourne. Bourne finished with five receptions on eight targets for 70 yards in last weekend's defeat against the Detroit Lions. That was his best statistical performance since Arizona's Week 1 victory against the winless Los Angeles Chargers when he recorded eight catches on eight targets for 75 yards.

Bourne is clear WR2 behind Michael Wilson now that Marvin Harrison Jr. is with the Houston Texans, so that will open up even more opportunities to produce on a team that seemingly is always playing from behind.

I am jumping on Bourne via two ladder plays involving receptions and receiving yards. This could be a shootout and I expect him to have a big showing against the Rams.

Bets: WR Kendrick Bourne: 4+ receptions (+116) | 5+ receptions (+240) and 40+ receiving yards (+112) | 50+ receiving yards (+182) | 60+ yards (+290) at FanDuel

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 42)

Fiddle: It's always hard to click the button to fade one of the hottest players in the NFL, but I think now is the right time in Kansas City.

Through four games this season — and an undefeated start — Kenneth Walker III has been the engine of the Chiefs offense. He has amassed 87 carries in those games, averaging over 21 rush attempts per game. This week, though, I think that number could drop.

The Chiefs are coming off their Week 5 bye, and head coach Andy Reid has thrived in these situational spots — he is 22-5 after the bye week. A lot of that can likely be attributed to more specific game planning and detailed play creation for the given opponent. I expect Kansas City to integrate Xavier Worthy and Cyrus Allen heavily into the game plan — and a few of those touches could come on gadget run plays, which would directly take from Walker.

The Chargers are likely to stack the box heavily and not afford Walker clean looks. They know wide receivers Rashee Rice and Tyquon Thornton are hurt, and Walker has been the focal point. I expect a heavy blitz rate and a run-stopping effort from L.A. defense, forcing the ball into Patrick Mahomes' hands to create with receivers in man coverage.

The angles I like here are a possible Mahomes over on his rushing yards, or Kenneth Walker under on his rushing attempts. From a market value perspective, the better odds are on Walker unders right now.

Bet: Kenneth Walker III under 19.5 rushing attempts (-115, BetMGM)

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 53)

Jacob: Here are the final scores of the Cowboys' last 10 games away from Dallas: 37-32, 30-27, 44-24, 33-16, 44-30, 30-23, 34-17, 28-20, 34-31 and 34-30. All 10 games flew over the total.

Now here are the final scores of the Cowboys' last four regular season games against Green Bay: 35-31 (2017), 34-24 (2019), 31-28 (2022) and 40-40 (2025). And the last two playoff games against Green Bay: 34-31 (2016) and 48-32 (2023). All six flew over the total.

But wait, there's more: The over is 5-0 on Sunday Night Football this season. It also is 8-2 with totals that close at 50 points or higher. And Dallas — which is coming off an embarrassing 24-16 home loss to the Bucs that fell way short of the total — hasn't seen the under hit in consecutive games since Weeks 9 and 10 in 2024 (a stretch of 30 contests).

So of course for this SNF matchup I'm recommending the … under.

Call it an all-time contrarian play, but there's a correlated reason for it. Both quarterbacks — Dallas' Dak Prescott and Green Bay's Jordan Love — are among the NFL's best downfield passers. And they have to be, because neither gets any support from the running game (the Cowboys rank 30th in rushing; the Packers are dead last).

Here's the problem: Strong, sustained winds are forecast for Sunday night in Green Bay — the kind that hamper deep throws (as well as long field-goal attempts).

In other words, both Prescott and Love likely will have to rely on short and intermediate passes to keep drives alive. That means fewer quick-strike scores, which are usually needed for an NFL game to clear this high of a total.

No, this won't be a 14-10 defensive slugfest. Rather, I expect something in the range of 24-21 — and even that leaves a full touchdown of wiggle room.