Stop piling on Drake Maye. A deep dive look at his struggles, what's failing around him and why Patriots should believe he'll bounce back

After 490 regular-season points and a surprising, and perhaps premature, run to the Super Bowl in Mike Vrabel's first year and Drake Maye's second year, the Patriots' offense seems to have fallen back to earth through three weeks in 2026. Everything has been diagnosed as the reason for its current ailments: a more difficult schedule, a young quarterback flummoxed as "the league adapted to him," an offense seeing no improvement from returning players, or new faces underwhelming or injured.

As with everything in football, everyone has a portion of the blame pie for the Patriots' lackluster start on offense. Just like everyone has their portion of the credit pie when things are going right.

Who is to blame for this putrid start for the Patriots? Well, not to spoil the hundreds, nay thousands, of words below, but just about everyone in New England has a nice slice on their plates as we enter October.

All data is via TruMedia unless otherwise noted.

Busting myths about why Maye is faltering

Let's start with Maye, who is one of the youngest starting quarterbacks in the NFL. He blistered his way through his second season and capped it off with a second-team All-Pro selection and MVP runner-up. His underwhelming playoff performances have been scrutinized and the "soft" regular-season schedule is often brought up as a reason to not anoint him quite yet as the league's next star quarterback. The schedule discussion took on a life of its own despite the passing defenses Maye faced falling more around league average. It's not like he was facing a MAC schedule (plus the lack of firepower around him, but don't worry, we'll get to that).

There have been theories thrown around to explain Maye's turnover-heavy start to 2026. I've heard that he can't "solve" Cover 6, a two-high coverage that has Cover 2 to one side and Cover 4 to the other. I'll snuff out that theory right away: Maye has absolutely no issues against Cover 6. The numbers thrown around are weighted heavily by facing the Seahawks twice, a team that runs Cover 6 more than anybody and, oh yeah, was one of the best defenses on record last season. The Seahawks are also a team Maye and the Patriots have faced twice over his dreaded "since the start of last year's playoffs" drop-off.

Maye had absolutely zero issues against the Chargers and Texans, or really any defense aside from the second matchup versus the Bills, that ran Cover 6 last season. There is no theme of not being able to read out the defense. There is a theme of the Seahawks dominating with their Cover 6 because it completely wipes out the Patriots' preferred formations and concepts. But, even if you include those two Seahawks matchups, Maye has been about league average in terms of success rate against teams in Cover 6; his 46% dropback success rate is just above the league average of 45.4% since the start of last year, including the playoffs. That mark is above Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy, for instance. And his explosive pass rate (13.8%) is just below league-average and just below Trevor Lawrence.

Maye's decision-making has actually been, for the most part, quite good, even during this mess of a start. He's been efficient, ranking 12th in dropback success rate among 28 quarterbacks with 50 or more pass attempts, and that's despite playing the toughest defensive schedule so far, per FTN's DVOA. His 46% success rate is above Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix. And not a soul is saying Stafford or Burrow is off to a poor start this season!

Down-to-down decision-making matters at the position that touches the football every single play (and I don't mean center, though their decision-making matters, too, but I digress).

The turnovers have been rough. Fumbling will likely always be a thing with Maye, as he has just over 9-inch hands, plays an aggressive style as a thrower and runner, and has led all QBs in fumbles lost after being sacked (8) since he entered the NFL.

The interceptions this season have all been a different story. Each turnover is a different microcosm of a young quarterback pressing, being too aggressive at the wrong moments while also operating in a predictable, archaic scheme that lacks creativity and skill players with any semblance of needle-moving talent. That's especially true with early injuries to the players (and also just general misuse and lack of understanding of those players' skill sets) who were meant to inject life and explosive plays into this offense.

Let's perform an autopsy on each of those six interceptions.

The first interception was a pure force by Maye when there was an easy checkdown available. The second interception was a phenomenal read and play by Julian Love, one of the smartest defenders in the NFL who immediately made a read (he's keying the No. 2 eligible pass-catcher to his side; when that player didn't release vertically, he then read Maye's eyes and made a great play).

The third interception was a prime example of the issues plaguing the Patriots' offense, and that Maye has been compounding: Mack Hollins released his route inside, which ends up convoluting the whole concept. Still, Maye should throw that football away.

The fourth one was a ton of issues. Yes, Maye could get to a checkdown, but it would help to not have pressure in his lap — Maye has been pressured on 42% of his dropbacks so far this season — and it would also help for Hunter Henry to actually look on his route.

The fifth interception should have been a throwaway, but it was also a terrible design and use of personnel. Jaguars defenders even said afterward that they knew exactly what was coming. Travis Hunter, who made the interception, said after the game , "We got those plays in practice. The coach did a great job scheming it up for us. He called the perfect call for us. We all talked and we communicated on my side of the ball and I just made it happen."

And that's on top of Rhamondre Stevenson, not a burner, being used to run the horizontally stretching route (into the short side of the field, mind you), Hollins (the guy in there for blocking) not blocking anybody and Efton Chism III stumbling on his route.

That particular play is a perfect snapshot of everything going wrong with the Patriots: lackluster personnel with a predictable play topped off by Maye compounding the issues by trying to do too much.

And, finally, the sixth interception was the right read against that coverage. But Kyle Williams is 5 yards short on his stutter-stop route and allows the cornerback to get inside of him. Not ideal!

The quarterback has to take care of the football. There's an adage with quarterbacks to "not make a bad play worse." And it's cropped up too often for Maye this season despite his actual down-to-down efficiency and good decision-making. You can point at his EPA right now, but there are other quarterbacks who have started a season with poor EPA because of a high turnover rate in a small sample size of games. I can point at other QBs who have started with comparable or even worse numbers over the first three games, and they turned out more than fine. There's Burrow (whose success rate wasn't even close to Maye's this season) and Lawrence in the 2023 season and Dak Prescott in 2018. So, Maye's EPA may be warped right now because of the turnovers, which have to improve, but his down-to-down efficiency and decision-making have still been more than fine. Especially given the absolute hell he has around him.

Even his other knocks, such as his high scramble and sack rates, are more understandable given the circumstances and the fact that he is one of the best scramblers since he's entered the NFL (and those scrambles are way more understandable when you see what he's working with down the field). He's even been highly efficient, with nine of his 10 scrambles this year resulting in a successful play. Even the sacks he has taken have a silver lining: he doesn't lose a ton of yards, ranking second in yards lost per sack at 4.2.

The underlying issue, though, is that Maye HAS to make high-end throws to generate explosives and HAS to be perfect with the football in an offense that is constantly feeling tight and static as it lacks any creativity in the run and pass games. And it lacks the personnel to help alleviate that pressure.

Here are Maye's throws that have gained 15 or more yards for the Patriots this season. Only two were thrown under 15 yards. His 21.4 air yards per attempt on gains of 15 or more yards is the highest in the NFL.

For comparison, Burrow's air yards is at 15.9 yards on passes that have gained 15 or more yards.

And Patrick Mahomes is at 12 air yards per attempt on his 15-plus yard gains.

It's really nice when you don't have to make constant downfield forays to generate big plays . And Maye has to do it a ton. He did last year, too!

But these throws can lead to volatility, especially if that decision-making gets rushed or the quarterback feels pressed.

Supporting cast and scheme are part of the problem

Looking at the scheme and players around Maye, "underwhelming" is the nice word I'll use to describe it. Henry, never a burner but a steady target for Maye, has taken a noticeable decline in play and athleticism. Henry's speed has dipped over the past few seasons, from a top mark of 18.84 mph in 2024, to 18.12 mph in 2025, to 17.73 in 2026. His average route speed has dropped from 12.06 mph in 2025 to 11.53 this year. And he just hasn't been as reliable.

There is a general lack of juice with the Patriots pass-catchers. Per Next Gen Stats, Henry actually leads the Patriots' pass-catchers in missed tackles forced this year, with 1 (one). There's no tie there, either. That's right, the Patriots' wide receivers have forced the same amount of missed tackles this year as you, dear reader. They have made zero tacklers miss this season. Z-E-R-O. Thirty-year-old Chris Godwin, coming off an injury-riddled season in 2025, has forced five missed tackles this year. Emmett Johnson, the rookie backup running back for the Chiefs, has forced six!

There's hope that reinforcements will be coming soon. A.J. Brown played just over a half before going on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. Tight end Eli Raridon, who has flashed early as a blocker and receiver in his young career, has also battled a thigh injury and a devastating personal loss (sidebar: please keep the Raridon family in your thoughts). Both players could come back over the next month. So that, and in theory, an easier schedule in terms of defenses over the next few weeks, should help. But there's just the sheer usage of their other skill players that makes me sound the alarm about what's going on with New England's offense.

There's Romeo Doubs, the other offseason addition the Patriots made to the receiver room. And, through three weeks, I have to ask if offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the Patriots' coaches watched Doubs and how he was best used in Green Bay. Like, at all.

Doubs, even going back to his time at Nevada, has been best used on breaking routes at the short and intermediate level. His connection with Jordan Love on outbreakers was particularly notable.

What do the Patriots do with Doubs? If you say use him on breaking routes, the obvious answer, you'd be wrong! They instead use him on vertical routes like gos and stops, like he's Randy Moss.

Doubs ran outbreakers on 22.5% of his routes in 2025, per Next Gen Stats. That number is 11.7% this year. And 44.2% of his routes are vertical this season, compared to 31% last year.

This matters! Doubs has been very productive on breaking routes and is around league average on go and hitch/stop routes over the past two seasons, just like he was in college!

Combining his 2024 and 2025 numbers in Green Bay, Doubs had 75 catches on 108 targets for 956 yards on 466 breaking routes (both in-breaking and outbreaking) for a 110.7 QB rating. Doubs averaged 2.1 yards per route on breaking routes, the same number as Justin Jefferson over that time and just below names like Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb and DeVonta Smith.

He averaged a first down on 12.4% of his routes. That ranks 13th among all receivers with at least 400 routes over that period. He's sandwiched between Ja'Marr Chase and Waddle in the rankings, and well above the league average of 8.8%.

On 249 routes defined as go and hitch routes, Doubs averaged 1.4 yards per route, below the average of 1.5. He recorded a first down on 6.8%, hanging out with receivers like Adonai Mitchell and again hovering around the league average of 6.5%.

Doubs has been targeted just three times on outbreakers this season. The results? Three catches for 100 yards.

It's not just Doubs, either. Williams, who I mentioned before with his lack of details on Maye's last interception, has been pigeonholed as an isolated wide receiver who runs nothing but vertical routes. While Williams was a big-play machine in college, often on vertical routes, those big plays didn't come just as an isolated receiver. But for whatever reason, the Patriots cater their offense to DeMario Douglas and even Hollins. This lack of role diversity impacts their other players, including Williams. He has 22 total routes in his career from the slot, with three targets. Why is that notable? In college, Williams ran 143 routes his last two years at Washington State from the slot while racking up 3.51 yards per route run and 13.3% first downs per route run (compared to 2.34 yards and a 9.3% first-down rate from outside alignment). The NFL is a totally different animal than college, of course. But, for a team lacking big plays, it seems like something to at least try to help create space and get a young player going.

There's even proof of concept for this last year! Williams' 72-yard touchdown against the Buccaneers in Week 10 of the 2025 season came on an over route when he was aligned in a condensed split (a way to "create" a slot when only two receivers are on the field).

If Williams seemingly lacks details with his route-running, it seems like an easy solution to just let him run and use his speed.

It's not just the passing game, either. The Patriots' offensive line and designs in the run game also leave a lot to be desired. The Seahawks exposed the Patriots' pass protection scheme in both recent matchups. Defensive games and twists constantly give them issues, especially with center Jared Wilson and on the right side that has faced injuries.

To their credit, the Patriots have tried to sprinkle in a protection scheme called Dash Pass to move the pocket for Maye, help the protection and let Maye continue to attack downfield.

The run game is still simplistic in its design. It's sound, but sound can go only so far if the players aren't putting it over the top. This is where design and creativity take more importance in a league predicated on matchups.

The Patriots love running the duo run concept, which in itself is not an issue. Duo is good to run in the current NFL ecosystem with how defenses are playing their boxes and coverages. The Patriots have been above average on duo runs in terms of success rate (45.7% compared to the league average of 40.8%). The issue is that they telegraph their duo runs and there are no big plays happening on them. They average only 3.5 yards per carry on duo runs and have been stuffed seven times, the most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. They're the only team in the league to average negative yards before contact on duo runs this season. They've played good defenses to start this season, but that's putting a lot on the Patriots' running backs to make something happen.

The Patriots use motion on 45.6% of their early-down runs so far this season, per Next Gen Stats. They use motion at the snap on 26.3% of those plays. Both are dead last in the NFL. Now, motion isn't pixie dust that makes everything better, but it sure can help when the personnel is lacking and defenses are keying on your favorite run plays!

And, just like the Dash Pass in the passing game, there have been flashes of new ideas in the run game. And they've been working! TreVeyon Henderson's long touchdown against the Steelers came on a tackle pull concept (generally known as a dart run concept) that seemed to catch the Steelers completely by surprise because it was such a tendency breaker for the Patriots.

Do that more! Do something different! It won't hurt to try! There has to be better ways to alleviate things for Patriots players who aren't winning on their own.

If you want a play indicative of how offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is going to play just his hits, no matter the personnel, look at the Patriots running a concept known as "Hoss Juke" for Douglas against the Jaguars. Hoss Juke features mirrored seam routes on the inside and stop routes on the outside, with a "Juke" route over the middle that's meant to isolate the top pass-catcher against a hopeless linebacker. In theory, anyway.

If you need an example of how telegraphed the Patriots' empty formation was, the Jaguars dropped nine defenders into coverage (likely supposed to be eight, but I think dropping nine was fitting).

Maye found Douglas on this play, but Douglas dropped it. In a perfect world, Maye rallies and throws the stop/hitch route to his teammate at the top of his screen. But, pre-snap, I wouldn't like a running back against Travis Hunter, either.

What are the silver linings for the Patriots? The schedule for the offense gets a bit easier starting Sunday. Brown should come back over the next couple of weeks, and same with Raridon. And their defense has actually been doing some interesting things (it currently ranks first in EPA vs. the pass and fifth in success rate, with the run defense being solid, but lacking explosive plays, too).

And the offense has moved the ball fairly well in each game before Maye's turnovers, penalties (like the one that negated a Maye scramble touchdown against the Jaguars) and a missed field goal for good measure. I've laid out issues, but it's definitely not the worst offense ever or even close to it. I use a home-brewed metric called SUPLEX that combines success rate and explosive play rate into a simple measure, and the Patriots rank just below league average, at 21st overall.

And the quarterback will be fine. In fact, I think he will be more than fine, even with the turnovers and weird stuff surrounding his shoulder . (T hat flea flicker in Week 1 wasn't an underthrow , by the way. A.J. Brown just ran his route WAY too early on it and the play was called a bit too close to the end zone for my liking. A common byproduct of running flea flickers is receivers too eagerly running their route before the quarterback even gets the ball).

His down-to-down decision-making has still been fine. And when you look at the start of his career — a sample size that includes the Jerod Mayo experience, a year when Maye finished with the eighth-best rookie season in terms of success rate since 2013 — the start of this year and his "easy" schedule of 2025, Maye has been off to one of the best starts for a young quarterback on record.

No caveats. You can even include his playoff numbers and it still holds up. He ranks third in dropback success rate among the 30 quarterbacks with 1,000 or more pass attempts through their first three seasons since 2013, behind only Mahomes and Brock Purdy. That 49.2% number jumps up to 50.5% if you remove the playoff games.

If you look at just his success rate on throws, he's fourth, including the playoffs, and second when you remove the playoffs. He's also the second-best scrambler in terms of efficiency over that time period while scrambling over 10% of his dropbacks (a number that will need to come down slightly for longevity purposes). He's third in EPA per dropback (see, sample size!). He's seventh in explosive pass rate. He's even second in completion rate, at 68%, for the "accuracy" wonks!

Even looking at all 69 quarterbacks with 1,000 or more pass attempts since 2013, there's Drake Maye well into the top-right. He's next to or above names like Peyton Manning, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, Lamar Jackson, and Purdy (and Jimmy Garoppolo).

The ceiling is there on top of the efficiency. Now Maye and the rest of the Patriots organization have to start rebuilding the floor before it starts sinking even further.