Fantasy Football Film Review: 5 things that stood out to Hayden Winks from Week 5
Fantasy football analyst Hayden Winks enters the Week 5 film room.
Fantasy football is inundated with stats and charts (guilty!!!), but the more context the film provides, the more reliable the data gets. That's why we have a 2.5-hour show called Stats vs. Film every Tuesday at 6 p.m. EST. That show is live — join us in the chat!!!
This (experimental) weekly column will look at some of the biggest storylines I picked up by grinding the film.
Ashton Jeanty is not playing fast enough
His ankle and foot injury partially explains this, but this was Jeanty's primary problem as a rookie, too. Jeanty's particular issue is quickly changing direction and bursting through the hole or away from a space defender. This isn't overly surprising, as it's uncommon for the elite RB prospects to skip NFL Combine testing, and Jeanty did just that.
Compared to the elite RBs, Jeanty's processing is forgettable. The play above is an example of not seeing things well. We have an inside zone run, where the C is going to climb to the LB after engaging with the DT. Jeanty doesn't trust it, stutters his feet and misses a potential window to hit the hole.
This is another missed read, this time on a power run. Jeanty should be trailing his pulling guard and waiting for him to block the LB. Instead, Jeanty is impatient and bounces it towards Brock Bowers, who lost his matchup. There is a hole up in the middle if he finds it. On man and power runs this year, Jeanty is averaging 3.0 yards per carry.
Some of this absolutely falls on the Raiders OL not getting enough push on their individual blocks. The lack of yards before contact (0.6) this season is not dissimilar to what happened last year. Unfortunately, the more we learn about yards before contact, the more we learn that the RB has more say in it than originally given credit for.
Here are the bottom 10 RBs in yards before contact this season, and it's not a coincidence that they are the slowest RBs in the NFL:
My last note on Jeanty is as a receiver. He's very capable on option routes and the occasional downfield route, but he's simply dropped too many passes, particularly over the middle on fast balls from Kirk Cousins. The Raiders might be trying to evaluate exactly how they can use him in the pass game because his protection has included multiple pretty fatal reps. Dylan Laube was playing a lot more than usual last week, limiting Jeanty to 53% snaps in the first half. Some of that is the injury, but some of that is because he's not an elite bellcow back.
Jeremiyah Love looked healthier than his box score
Following a new right ankle sprain in Week 4, Love managed to get in a full practice heading into Sunday. He started, played in the 2-minute drill and started the second half before being shelved in a dead fourth quarter. He totally busted in the box score, but how did he look?
There was a wild jump over a blocker, many quick cuts and enough reps of him getting up to speed to believe he can be productive if the Cardinals allow it. Where the tape was concerning was across the OL. They don't have starting LT Parris Johnson Jr. for the rest of the year, and the rest of the OL has been problematic all season. There simply wasn't a lot of room to run in Week 5 against the Lions.
Love was on the field for the goal-line play-action rep before garbage time, so there might be a little more value in this role than what we saw last week in REAL garbage time. The comments around Love's happiness and health are concerning, but the Cardinals are going to get real desperate here.
Beyond his health, the consistent thing on his film is he's been a little too jumpy/dancy. He's a very explosive player who can jump around defenders and find hidden holes, but there are other times where he's jumping around to nowhere. Finding that balance is what turns the good starters into the great ones.
Small sample noise can lead us astray, but Golden is just very good. It's as simple as that. There will be an occasional drop or miscommunication with Jordan Love given his experience, but Golden moves like the top downfield receivers in the NFL. His explosiveness at the line is obvious; he can maintain separation downfield, and he has springs at the catch point.
All of that manifested on this man-coverage rep against CB1 Jaylon Johnson:
You'll notice Jordan Love saw the matchup after peaking to Golden's side, checked out of the run and then launched it to him with perfect placement. Golden had an extremely similar rep up the seam, too.
Beyond this rep, Golden is adding multiple quick-hitting reps, like screens, slants, hitches and scramble-drill wins, so his floor is higher than others with this downfield ability. He's on pace for 80 receptions and 1,350 yards right now. If Love is going to have as much time in the pocket as he did last year after the Packers began moving around their starting offensive linemen, then this team can rip explosives with the best of them.
Love had six completions for 252 yards on passes over 20 air yards, both a single-game high this season. He also had a phantom OPI called back that would've made his stat 7-302-2.
Bernard is the consensus top waiver wire add of the week . The role is undeniable with Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) on injured reserve, and Roman Wilson (finger) expected to be out multiple weeks. Bernard ran a route on 36 of 38 Week 5 dropbacks. That's enough to be an auto top-50 fantasy WR, but the question is, can he be a bye-week starter in fantasy?
In Week 2, Bernard had a bubble screen clank off his chest for a horrid interception, one that required Aaron Rodgers himself to make the tackle. I'm sure Rodgers loved that.
This week, Bernard had two other drops. Bernard's toughest drop began by not knowing the play. Once again as the flanker, Bernard began blocking for a run play and realized he had a route to run. He cut inside, just where Jaylen Warren was expected to be as the checkdown. Bernard sat right in front of Warren, then dropped it. That's what it's like playing as a rookie in a dense Rodgers offense.
His other one was the flanker in a trips set, running a seam ball against zone coverage after Rodgers drew an edge offside. While turning around, Bernard dropped a perfect pass that would've gone for an explosive. Drops happen, so this wasn't so bad.
The Steelers seem willing to live with the mistakes, and Rodgers has even spent pre-production time talking up his second-round rookie. I loved Bernard's versatility and toughness on his Alabama tape, so I do hope he can round out his game immediately. Bernard's positive plays in Week 5 reflected those traits. He had two slant wins in traffic, then two big-boy dig routes for chunk gains. Rodgers likes to throw these underneath passes into tight windows, and Bernard has the size and willingness to be targeted here.
Jaylen Warren is a star. There's no competition between him and Rico Dowdle. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Tyler Shough (left hand) had to hand the ball off only with his right hand. I wouldn't be surprised if his non-throwing hand is broken right now. Speaking of broken, the Saints have the worst RB and TE blocking rooms in the NFL. That's really what broke the Saints versus Brian Flores.
Many of Kyler Murray's biggest plays were a bit out of structure. His speed on scrambles was excellent and very valuable. There were also chunk passing gains in the scramble drill, and his big touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson was after he got bumped off his route. Even while he learns the feel of this new downfield offense, Murray's play-making is a fun backup plan. The Vikings are heading on bye now, and they could absolutely use it with their injuries.
Parker Washington is excellent. His physicality and ball skills have been evident since late last year. That showed up again when he peaked around the much-bigger Riq Woolen before extending his other hand for a one-handed TD. What I didn't realize was how fast he is in a straight line. His long, leaking TD showcased burst that is reminiscent of the top slot/flanker types, like Steve Smith Sr.. Washington is going to get the biggest bag at any moment.
Makai Lemon just might not be quick enough to be a difference maker. A quick slant covered by Travis Hunter was pretty glaring in terms of movement skills and length. There was another screen called for him that went incomplete because he initially went out to block. This isn't the first time that's happened this year, so don't be surprised if his snaps stagnate or reduce with Darius Cooper playing better and offering more in the run game. Lemon is droppable.
The Eagles had another 10 unblocked pressures (bad), but they attacked it differently this time around. They went empty to simplify things and often threw it downfield. Those went incomplete this time, but this was a better plan for Jalen Hurts when teams are blitzing. It's evident that they don't trust their fourth- and fifth-string RBs in protection, nor should they. The other thing with the new-look Eagles offense is a pivot away from the Tush Push. Neither of their one-yard-to-go plays were pushes, and their new C (who had some bad snaps) and extremely undersized new LG (who had five pressures allowed) aren't equipped to run it. That really hurts Hurts' fantasy value.
Tyler Warren is being utilized more downfield without Alec Pierce. In 17 games with Pierce, his aDOT is just 4.5 yards downfield. In seven games without Pierce involved, Warren's aDOT is up to 6.5 yards. Last week's 9.9 aDOT was the second highest of his career. He had a pair of wheel routes up the sideline, then more breaking routes in the 8-15 yard range. Those will be helpful for the next few weeks. A bonus FB dive at the goal line for a score is also helpful.
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