Oddsmakers react to the differing travel strategies for NFL game in Australia: 'My first thought is the Rams are nuts'

The NFL will play its first-ever regular-season game in Australia later this week when the Los Angeles Rams "host" the San Francisco 49ers as 3.5-point favorites. The game will kick off at 8:35 p.m. ET on Thursday night here in the United States, but will be played at 10:35 a.m. local time on Friday morning in Melbourne. Both teams will take at least a 16-hour flight to get there — although Aaron Donald won't have to make the trip , as he was ruled out for the game on Tuesday.

To further add intrigue to the game, the teams consulted with their staffers and arrived at diametrically opposed travel strategies. The 49ers flew out on Sept. 2, and will be in Australia for about a week prior to the game, while the Rams plan to fly into Melbourne the day before the game and fly out immediately afterwards.

While the Rams are the clear Super Bowl favorite , no preseason favorite with +500 or better odds has ever won the Super Bowl over the past 30 seasons (0-for-20). And no preseason Super Bowl favorite has ever had to start its season this many time zones away on another continent — against a division opponent that could have an impact on the NFC West and No. 1 seed.

Variance provides opportunity in sports betting, and it would stand to reason that one of these strategies will be far more effective than the other. But so far, the line has held steady at Los Angeles -3.5 at sportsbooks, and the total has stuck at 48.5.

So, what is the potential betting impact of these travel strategies — both on this game and Week 2 for both teams?

We asked a bunch of oddsmakers — including one based in Australia — and handicappers for their thoughts.

It's always best to ask those with first-hand experience, so I reached out to Adam Hamilton, the head of racing and talent at Entain in Australia and New Zealand, for an on-the-ground report. While Hamilton noted the buzz surrounding the game in Melbourne and more money wagered on the Rams to cover, he was one of several oddsmakers in favor of the Rams' strategy.

"Fascinating difference in travel approach," Hamilton wrote in an email to Yahoo Sports. "Is the chance to acclimatize and settle [in] negated by the distractions and almost relaxing too much? While it's great for promotion of the game to have San Francisco here so early, I'd argue the Rams' approach is better. I love my horse racing and it's interesting most trainers would rather travel to a race interstate or overseas as close as possible."

Multiple oddsmakers that Yahoo Sports spoke with noted that the travel wouldn't have an impact on the spread or the way the public bet on it. One oddsmaker said he would've opened the game Rams -4.5 if it was being played at their true home in SoFi Stadium.

"I have been pretty in the weeds on circadian rhythms for a long time," Rob Pizzola, a sharp NFL handicapper and owner of The Hammer, told Yahoo Sports via text message. "I believe the Rams' plan is better because they are going to be playing on an optimal body clock. The 49ers will get acclimated to the facility and everything else a bit better, but they are going to end up on a morning body clock in Melbourne."

Several other oddsmakers theorized that San Francisco's approach was better, in terms of being able to adjust to the time, knowing their surroundings, ability to treat injuries on the ground, etc.

Perhaps one longtime Vegas oddsmaker put it best: "My first thought is the Rams are nuts. But they had a similar strategy with a game in London and they played great. Short answer is I have no idea. Either way, I'm letting the action dictate the number."

An interesting point was raised by Dr. Cathy Anne Goldstein on Ed Feng's Power Rank podcast , though. She noted that it takes about a day per time zone crossed to fully adjust, which means that even though the 49ers were coming in a week early, they wouldn't be able to fully adjust to the time in Melbourne — needing over two weeks to do so.

"[The 49ers] are going to be partially misaligned and it's not just that internal circadian misalignment with the time in Melbourne," Dr. Goldstein said. "They're also going to have sleep deprivation and poor performance while they're training and trying to recover and optimize for themselves for the game. So I think this is not a good strategy."

With the game at 10:35 a.m. local time — which translates to 5:35 p.m. the previous day in Los Angeles or San Francisco — being partially misaligned could be an even bigger disadvantage than flying in, playing and flying out. Yahoo Sports' own Jeff Eisenberg did a deeper dive on the science behind it all in this article earlier this week .

"What the Rams are doing — their body clock is going to remained aligned to L.A. time, leading up to the game they'll be sleeping normally and training normally," Dr. Goldstein added. "I personally think this is a much better strategy to address this massive change in time zones."

Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, added, "I asked some Australian oddsmakers and they all believe the Rams are making a big mistake in [their travel plan]. I would tend to favor the under in this game, and they're of that belief as well."

What is the impact for both teams in Week 2?

Assuming the game doesn't end in a tie, the differing travel strategies will also have an impact on the rest of the season — especially in Week 2. The 49ers return to play three straight home games (-12.5 vs. Miami Dolphins , -10.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals , -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos ) and won't have to leave the West Coast again until a Week 7 game at Atlanta .

The Rams host the New York Giants in Week 2 as 9.5-point favorites, followed by consecutive road trips to Denver and Philadelphia and a home game against the Buffalo Bills . Los Angeles' schedule is far less forgiving, but the Rams may have an advantage in Week 2 by never adjusting to the Melbourne time zone.

"Maybe they're thinking ahead to Week 2, if we're not changing the body clocks then it's less of an effect," Gable added. "I believe there's going to be more of an effort to fade both of these teams in Week 2 than necessarily what happens in this week."

Either way, one team is going to end up 0-1 with a long trip back to the West Coast, and the other will likely be touting its travel plans as a big reason for a Week 1 victory.