NFL's biggest surprises, disappointments and MVP through first 4 weeks of season

Four weeks into the 2026 NFL season has provided fans early data points, tight ballgames , testy referees and the usual dollop of gripes about coaches and coordinators.

So which teams, players and coaches stood out? And what should we look forward to over the next set of games before we hit the NFL's midway point?

Yahoo Sports' Frank Schwab , Eric Edholm , Jay Busbee and Jori Epstein each weighed in with their takes on the NFL's top surprises, disappointments, MVPs and storylines.

Frank Schwab: Last season, the Raiders were an absolute mess with no plan and no hope for the future. That changed quickly. Las Vegas is coming off a loss Sunday, but even that was a competitive game against the Chiefs. The 3-1 start looks like it is sustainable, with a defense that is much improved and an offense that is revamped with rookie head coach Klint Kubiak.

The Raiders earned the No. 1 overall pick last season by being a horrendous team. This season, they should be a playoff contender. What a change.

Eric Edholm: The Raiders, and specifically the Klint Kubiak-Kirk Cousins duo, have been a highly competitive team. They started 3-0 before falling to the Chiefs at home, but they gave Kansas City everything it could handle and might be far more competitive than we realized. Cousins has thrown multiple TDs in every game despite missing Brock Bowers for two of them. This has completely taken the pressure off the Raiders to force rookie Fernando Mendoza into the lineup as a savior. Now they can develop him at a proper pace and hand over the baton when Mendoza is ready, not when a struggling team needs a boost. This short-term development could have important long-term benefits.

Jay Busbee: Since I'm writing this on Tuesday morning, I have to go with the Atlanta Falcons. After an opening two games in which the team didn't look capable of making the College Football Playoff, much less winning four games in the NFL, the Falcons are a completely new and revitalized team with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. How long will this run last? Who knows, but watching Bijan Robinson in open space is like watching poetry in motion … if poetry could run right over you.

Jori Epstein: Maybe it sounds silly to say the reigning Super Bowl MVP is a pleasant surprise. But Kenneth Walker III's 161 yards from scrimmage on the biggest stage did not represent his season-long average during four Seahawks years and certainly didn't represent his first four games of production in prior seasons. In no four-game start prior did Walker average more than 70.8 rushing yards and 85 yards from scrimmage per game. This year: He's riding a league-best 134.3 rushing yards and 155.3 yards from scrimmage through four weeks. His six touchdowns from scrimmage already surpass his five across 17 games last season. Credit Walker for his toughness, head coach Andy Reid for his creative play-calling, Patrick Mahomes for his general magician tendencies and the Chiefs' offensive line for paving the way even without their starting left tackle.

What I want to know next: Can Walker sustain this pace, or anything near it, over the course of a whole season?

Schwab: It seems too easy to say the Chargers, so I'll go to the AFC South and take the Texans. It's not just the 0-4 record, either. Houston's offense has been middling, and it fell apart without Nico Collins for a couple weeks. That isn't a huge surprise. What's surprising is the Texans' defense hasn't been very good. Needing a stop in Week 4 to get their first win, the Texans allowed Dak Prescott to drive downfield. They gave up 17 catches and 189 yards to CeeDee Lamb. This is supposed to be a great defense and it's not even that good. That's stunning.

Edholm: It's gotta be the Texans, who dropped another game late Sunday — and another game at home, too. That's 0-4 overall, and 0-3 in Houston. They battled back from the 0-3 start a year ago, but this hill is an even higher climb. More than anything, how they're losing is the most bothersome aspect. The defense was unglued in losses to the Bills and Cowboys. Granted, those are two of the league's better offenses, but this Texans' defense entered the season regarded as elite; that hasn't been the case so far. QB C.J. Stroud hasn't turned the ball over the past three games, but he's still missing some throws and being sacked too often. We'll see if this team can pull out of this tailspin, but it's not looking great early.

Busbee: Well, Frank left the Chargers sitting right there for me like an Easter egg on the middle of the lawn, so I'll grab them. Everything about Los Angeles seemed to be pointing toward a deep January run prior to this season, and everything now points to a six-win ceiling. Injuries, incompetence, and an inability for Justin Herbert and new OC Mike McDaniel to connect have all contributed to a dismal 0-4 start to a season that could still get so much worse.

Epstein: The Los Angeles Chargers' offense.

I wasn't sure the Chargers would be great this year. But I did believe one of Mike McDaniel's key offensive principles would help Justin Herbert improve this season.

McDaniel told me when I visited Chargers training camp how he believed NFL pass rushers are on average better than NFL offensive linemen. "So if you accept the fact that blockers have an inherent disadvantage," he said, "to me, beating the pass rush with the time of the play more often than not is where those beliefs come from." McDaniel in turn wanted Herbert to focus on quick-release passes, a strategy that should leave him less reliant on a seemingly always injured offensive line and less susceptible to excessive hits. Yards after the catch was to be the name of the game. Instead: Herbert's 12 sacks trail only Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield; the 35 pressures he's faced trail only Rodgers, the Panthers' Bryce Young and the Packers' Jordan Love.

Herbert's six interceptions to four passing touchdowns have tanked his passer rating to a 70.6, 31st out of 32 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 50 passes (Jameis Winston trails slightly, at 70.4). And the Chargers, in the "most important" stat, are 0-4. Their schedule remains daunting and questions linger about their offensive identity. Injuries, particularly to the offensive line, contribute heavily. And the Chargers lost to the Bills and Seahawks by one score. So there's reason to believe they can turn the corner. But through four games, they're disappointing.

Schwab: It's always fun when a non-quarterback is in the race for MVP, even though we all know that a quarterback will win the award. But who has had more value so far this season than Kenneth Walker? He has transformed the Chiefs' offense, and KC is 4-0 after a hugely disappointing 6-11 season in 2025. He already has 537 rushing yards and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry, and both marks lead the NFL.

MVP has become a quarterback-only award. But it would be nice if Walker at least stayed in the conversation because no one player has had a bigger impact this season.

Edholm: Brock Purdy has played elite football and is on pace for his finest season, statistically and otherwise, to date. Why he doesn't receive proper credit is beyond me, but Purdy needs recognition for his growth and efficiency, especially with the 49ers again being ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. He hasn't been sacked all season, and Purdy is completing nearly 70% of his passes and averaging 8.9 yards per attempt despite multiple receivers being hurt early in the season. And no one asked, but my OPOY is Kenneth Walker.

Busbee: I'm going with Kirk Cousins because uprooting your life and taking on a role that you know has a ticking clock is one thing; excelling in that role against all logical and roster-based odds is another. Cousins has thrown 11 touchdowns, tied with Brock Purdy for the league lead, but unlike Purdy, Cousins is doing this with a team that's already more than halfway to its preseason over/under of 5.5 wins. Is it sustainable? Probably not, but the Kirko Express is a fun ride for now.

Epstein: I'm torn between San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who have led their teams to 4-0 and 3-1 starts, respectively. Purdy's 11 passing touchdowns tie the Raiders' Kirk Cousins for most through four weeks, Purdy's 126.2 passer rating and 61.9% success rate (another efficiency metric) are best in the league. Two of those wins have come against the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos, who played in conference championship games last season. And Purdy has played while down a host of receivers, which should neutralize questions about whether he's simply capitalizing on injured (and, in Week 1, highly jetlagged) competition. That said, Allen has 13 total touchdowns (six passing, seven rushing) and remains a dual threat teams fear facing. He's thrown three picks the last two weeks, which gives cause for concern, but his dual-threat style may nonetheless still instill more fear in opponents than any of his counterparts right now.

To break the tie, I'll fall back on the criteria I've long used to discern between the best players and the most valuable players: Who has provided the most value to their team, based on the combination of what they've been asked to and what they've done? Through four weeks, Purdy gets the nod.

What's the top storyline to watch in the next four weeks?

Schwab: The Jaguars are one bad half at Denver from already being the story of the NFL through four games. They went 13-4 last season and look great during a 3-1 start to this season. But because Jacksonville struggles to get attention and the Jaguars did blow that game at the Broncos in Week 2, they're still well under the radar. But this looks like a complete team that can win a Super Bowl. There is practically no competition for the Jags in the AFC South (the other three teams are a combined 2-10). It will take too long for anyone to notice, but perhaps in the next quarter of the season everyone will realize the Jaguars are one of the NFL's elite teams.

Edholm: I'm looking at the NFC West race. Week 5 brings us a great matchup: the 4-0 49ers at the 3-1 Seahawks, and it's a critical stretch for both. The Seahawks have three of their next four games at home, but they face a tough quartet of teams. After facing the Seahawks, the 49ers play the Commanders (with Jayden Daniels potentially back) and the suddenly hot Falcons in Atlanta, followed by the Week 8 bye. And lest we forget about the Rams, who are 2-2 (barely) and also enjoy three of their next four games at home, although the next one is against a Bills team coming off a loss. The league's tightest division is entering a key stage of the season.

Busbee: I'm going to be interested to see if anyone can take control of the NFC East, which seems like the most up-for-grabs division in football right now. Seriously, you could make a case for any of the four teams to win it — a case largely based on the fact that all of the four teams have a tendency to underachieve at spectacularly awful levels. I still think Dallas has the horses to pull this one out, but given the high variance at play here, no winner would surprise me that much.

Epstein: Can Kyler Murray and the Vikings' offense figure things out? Clearly Minnesota's defense is playoff-caliber. The Vikings are 4-0 on the backs of a unit allowing fewer points than any other team in the NFL. But can Murray, who previously operated less in the pocket than head coach Kevin O'Connell's quarterbacks historically have, mesh well in this offense? How much of a shaky start reflects the injuries to players, including star receiver Justin Jefferson, how much reflects a standard acclimation period and how much reflects a player whose style differs from the Sam Darnold/Kirk Cousins type that O'Connell has thrived with? Murray was more efficient against the Miami Dolphins than he was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I want to know how Murray competes against playoff-caliber teams rather than the 0-4 units he's faced the last two weeks. If O'Connell, Murray and Co. settle the offense, the Vikings have the chance to threaten any team in the league.