The Outlook - Week 1 (Page 4)

Implied Point Total: Las Vegas 21.75, Miami 18.75

Willis' rushing ability gives him an easy bar to clear for top-10 fantasy quarterback production this season. Every quarterback who has rushed for at least 600 yards has finished as a top-10 fantasy passer, and almost three-quarters of those players have finished as a top-six fantasy passer. We're going to get a LOT of information right out of the gate on how Miami will operate its offense and how aggressive it will be with Willis at quarterback. Against one of the softer defenses in the NFL in Las Vegas, Willis has the chance to get off to a nice start in Week 1.

Fantasy Advice: Willis is a solid streaming option in Week 1 if you're daring enough, but the floor is pretty low. Even with a nice matchup, this may not be the week to play it cute at quarterback, since you likely drafted another quarterback ahead of Willis.

Not only is Achane one of the most efficient and explosive backs in the NFL, but he is also one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. No back in the NFL had more 10-plus-yard runs or 15-plus-MPH runs than Achane last year. In terms of the Dolphins and who stands to benefit in the post-Mike McDaniel era, it's really just Achane in terms of the high-end production. He's the focal point of the Dolphins' offense this season, and especially in Week 1 against the Raiders.

Fantasy Advice: Achane is a mainstay at the RB position on your roster. A must-start option against these Raiders, who were in the bottom half of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Coming out of UCLA in 2022, Dulcich always had the talent to be a deeper aDOT tight end that can bust seams and get downfield. His 12.7-yard aDOT in his rookie season with the Broncos showed a ton of receiving talent. However, injuries took their toll, and he bounced from Denver to the Giants, then landed with Miami in 2025. As a Dolphin last season, Dulcich was a small-sample demon, with 10.8 yards per target and a 2.31 YPRR on 31 targets and 145 total routes. Dulcich remains with the new Miami regime, where he'll have a real chance to stick past this season.

Fantasy Advice: Dulcich might be the most bankable non-Achane skill-position player for fantasy, but unless you're in tight end premium league and able to start multiple tight ends, Dulcich is best left on your bench in Week 1 against the Raiders.

After suffering an ankle injury that had everybody drafting Mike Washington Jr. in the seventh round for 18 hours, Jeanty has practiced in full the last two days and should be good to go for Sunday's game against the Dolphins. Jeanty finished as RB11 after a solid but inefficient season in 2025. Averaging just 3.7 yards per carry last season, we should see some improvement in the offensive environment in 2026 under new head coach Klint Kubiak.

Fantasy Advice: In a primo matchup at home against the Dolphins, Jeanty is a solid RB1 and he should have a solid start to his 2026 in Week 1.

Well, Brock Bowers will be missing time as he's having his meniscus trimmed after getting banged up in training camp and preseason. What a time to be alive to have this news drop! (Thank you for waiting until 99% of drafts were in the books, Las Vegas!) Regardless, we must move on for now. In Week 1, Mayer will be next man up. He's no slouch as a second-round pick who was immediately usurped the second the words "Brock Bowers" came out of the lips of Roger Goodell at the NFL Draft podium a few years ago.

ANYWAY, Mayer is perfectly fine and very talented as a tight end; he just hasn't been featured too much outside of a Bowers injury. Earning a 21.2% TPRR last season on limited routes, Mayer has shown that he can earn targets when given the opportunity. For at least the first few weeks of the season, he'll get that opportunity.

Fantasy Advice: Mayer has thrived at times when Bowers has been out of the lineup, but with this opportunity against one of the worst teams at defending the tight end position in the Dolphins, I've got Mayer as a back-end TE1 and more than worthy of a start if you're more keen on him than your current tight end option. Mayer is an easy 1:1 pivot if you roster Bowers and don't already have another option. For those who roster guys like McBride, Warren, Kraft and that top-end group, there's not much need to go grab Mayer unless it's tight end premium or you have an empty bench spot and want to play some defense in your league.

Implied Point Total: LA Chargers 28.5, Arizona 19

During his stint as the Cardinals' starting quarterback last season, Brissett was QB8. His connections to Michael Wilson and Trey McBride fed families. Literally. Mine. It was glorious!

Anyway, back again is Brissett with a new head coach in Mike LaFleur. However, for a full season, can Brissett keep up that pace? It'll be tough with a lot of game tape around for defenses to study and stop the Cards' passing game.

Fantasy Advice: Against a tough Chargers defense in Week 1, this isn't the spot to unleash Brissett in 2026. I'm leaving him out of my fantasy lineups.

Jeremiyah Love is currently dealing with an ankle injury, but LaFleur is "optimistic" about Love's progress, even though the rookie's status for Week 1 is reportedly up in the air.

Love's sprained ankle suffered in the Cardinals' first preseason game has carried over into the first injury report of the season, but if he can play against the Chargers, we have to figure out whether he'll be part of a committee at the outset of the season with free-agent signee Tyler Allgeier . With James Conner on the PUP list to start the season, it's primarily a two-man backfield right now, with Bam Knight possibly spelling both for a carry or two.

Fantasy Advice: If Love misses Week 1, I have Allgeier as a flex play given the tough Chargers defense that allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs and the likelihood that the Cardinals get down big. If Love DOES play, I have him as a flex play too, just on the pretty decent chance that he's still splitting work and rotating with Allgeier.

It's not as though Harrison has been BAD, but he's just not lived up to the lofty expectations placed upon him as the son of a Hall of Fame wide receiver. Missing five games last season, Harrison's numbers dipped across the board, but he'll continue to get every opportunity to shed that "bust" label that's honestly been a little unfair to place on him going into his third season as a pro.

Fantasy Advice: Facing the Chargers this week in the season opener, Harrison Jr. is a flex play that you're hoping gets some garbage-time opportunities if the Cardinals get down quickly.

From Week 11 through Week 18, Wilson had FIVE top-10 fantasy finishes and had just one game in his last eight with less than seven targets. To say Brissett was feeding him is a clear understatement. The question we're all asking this season about Wilson is if that second half is repeatable in 2026. With Brissett back and now Harrison and McBride, Wilson may find replicating that stretch a lot tougher.

Fantasy Advice: Allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, Wilson is a flex play at best against the vaunted Chargers defense.

It's hard to argue with McBride in your tight end slot. Posting 126 receptions for 1,239 yards and 11 touchdowns will certainly assuage one's doubts despite being on a bad Cardinals team. Having Brissett installed at quarterback for 2026 will help things in a new offense, and honestly, that's the best-case scenario right now for McBride's continued fantasy value. He had at least seven targets in every single game last season; if that's not consistency and production, I don't know what is.

Fantasy Advice: McBride is a must-start option at tight end each week he is active.

It feels like Herbert has been on the cusp of stardom for almost four seasons now but just can't quite get over the hump. In 2026, he has his best and most complete team around him, with his bookend tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt healthy, plenty of receivers and tight ends and stud running back Omarion Hampton . New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is joining the fray to tie it all together.

Fantasy Advice: With a cake matchup in Week 1 against the Cardinals, if you roster Herbert, you've got to start him this week.

The addition of McDaniel to what was a pass-centric offense under previous coordinator Greg Roman last season should lead this offense to become a bit more balanced in 2026. While Hampton was a large part of what the Chargers did on the ground – especially late in the 2025 season – getting more attempts and utilization under his belt will only help Hampton in his second season.

After missing a seven-game stretch in the middle of his rookie season, Hampton returned to action in Week 14 to average a solid 14.7 fantasy points per game from Week 14 through Week 17. As the bell-cow of this offense and a (mostly) healthy offensive line with bookend tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, Hampton should take the next step to becoming a fantasy force in 2026 - especially with McDaniel calling plays.

Fantasy Advice: This feels like a launchpad game for Hampton, especially with Keaton Mitchell (hamstring) banged up and on the injury report this week. Hampton is an RB1 with a bullet in Week 1.

It's incredibly hard to ignore what we saw in McConkey's rookie season, but there are also reasons why McConkey's second season in 2025 wasn't as good as his first. Players like this don't just become bad all of the sudden. With a new play-caller and offensive coordinator in McDaniel, this Chargers' offense may be a bit more balanced in terms of run vs. pass. However, in terms of who is getting the ball, McConkey looks to be at the head of the pack when it comes to who can balloon his production in his third season.

Fantasy Advice: McConkey feels very good as a nice WR2 candidate who could blow up in a great matchup against the Cardinals. Allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season, McConkey has a golden opportunity here at home in Week 1 to remove the landing gear and soar in his third season.

After a horrible first season in Los Angeles , Johnston has bounced back with two solid seasons, including his first top-36 fantasy season in 2025. As the prototypical X receiver, Johnston has taken the downfield role for the Chargers and been pretty successful with it, in contrast to players like McConkey, who run more short to intermediate routes.

Fantasy Advice: In a game that figures to be tilted towards the Chargers, Johnston is a worthwhile flex play against the Cardinals, who allow the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Implied Point Total: Dallas 25.75, NY Giants 22.75

One of the best value quarterbacks in fantasy drafts this summer, Prescott finished as QB6 last season with 30 touchdown passes and over 4,500 yards. The rushing component of his game is nearly gone, but he's good for a couple of TD plunges a season and 100-200 yards. The Cowboys are going to score a lot and have CeeDee Lamb , George Pickens and Jake Ferguson to highlight the weaponry available to Prescott this season.

Fantasy Advice: With the Giants just a middle-of-the-road team in defensive EPA per pass attempt but allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers, we'll ride Prescott this week in a very solid matchup against the Giants.

Despite averaging just 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry in 2023 and 2024 in his final two seasons as a Denver Bronco , the Cowboys signed Williams to a one-year deal in free agency last offseason. The hope was that Williams could find some of his pre-injury form. He found that and then some as he finished as RB12 on the season.

Among 48 qualified rushers last season, Williams was ninth in yards after contact per attempt, 11th in rush yards over expectation and was sixth in rushing expected points added (rush EPA). Not just that, but Williams also had his burst back with 26 runs of 10+ yards, which was good for 13th.

Fantasy Advice: Against the Giants, who traded away Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals , they could scuffle in the first week or two of the season. With the threat posed by Prescott, plus Lamb, Pickens and Ferguson, Williams is there to clean up. I like him as a high-end RB2 for fantasy in Week 1.

Lamb had a down season in 2025, having missed three games, but giving up a lot of touchdown equity to his teammate George Pickens. Still, you don't need me to tell you why Lamb should be in your lineup.

Fantasy Advice: If you roster Lamb, he's in your lineup.

George Pickens was unreal in fantasy football this past season, finishing as the WR5 in fantasy points per game. After trading for him last offseason, Pickens and Lamb have been a near-unbeatable wide receiver combination. With Lamb out for several weeks at the beginning of the season, Pickens put the Cowboys on his back in 2025 with five consecutive games with at least one touchdown. Pickens and Lamb both finished last season with massive efficiency, sporting a 2.35 and 2.37 YPRR, respectively. As the only player playing on the franchise tag this season, Pickens should be fine to continue his awesome production for the Cowboys.

Fantasy Advice: Pickens is a must-start option in a massively productive Cowboys' offense in Week 1. For me, he's a low-end WR1 with overall WR1 upside this week.

Ferguson is most definitely one of the most "eat your vegetables" tight ends you can roster in fantasy football, but he's in that Dallas Goedert "he's going to exist and be annoying for the wide receivers" role for the Cowboys. Let's not forget that Ferguson was fantasy's TE1 up until Week 8, when Trey McBride activated and went scorched earth on fantasy football. But quietly, Ferguson's always been a solid target earner, with targets per route run percentages at 20% or more in three of four seasons. Helping to buoy Ferguson's TE5 finish last season were his eight touchdowns, which could see a little scaling back. Ferguson will be plenty relevant this season, but doesn't carry the upside of the top-end names at the position.

Fantasy Advice: The Giants allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to the tight end position a season ago, but with the Cowboys' high-flying offense, I'm willing to give a little bump to Ferguson with all the defensive attention paid to Lamb and Pickens. For me, Ferguson is a low-end TE1 worthy of starting consideration.

The Giants' offense could be very good this year as long as health plays a factor, and Dart is at the forefront this season. With 487 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns on top of his 15 passing touchdowns, Dart was a per-game monster last season. Now getting a full season of Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers , plus some more depth like Malachi Fields , Darnell Mooney , Isaiah Likely and others, Dart is set up for success this season.

Fantasy Advice: Against the Cowboys in Week 1, Dart feels like a guy you just can't sit knowing he can create with his arm and his legs.

Skattebo's season was cut short in the middle of Week 8 against the Eagles with an ACL injury that ended his season. Averaging 20.5 opportunities (targets + carries) per game from Week 2 until Week 7, we saw Skattebo force the hand of then-head coach Brian Daboll. Under a new Giants regime with new head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, Skattebo should get every opportunity to thrive in a productive system predicated around setting up the run and letting Dart create in and out of the pocket. And he's healthy – that we know of.

Fantasy Advice: Against a tough front featuring Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark , the Cowboys are a lot better against the run than against the pass. Still, Skattebo should see some work in the receiving game to establish a solid floor in addition to his work on the ground. He's a mid-range RB2 in Week 1.

Last season ended prematurely for Nabers as he tore his ACL and suffered meniscus damage as well. All is well, as Nabers has been practicing in full, and it's been confirmed that he's playing on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys. Nabers' rookie season was sublime, with 165 targets, 109 receptions and 1,204 receiving yards. Nabers was on his way to besting those numbers when his injury hit in his fourth game of the season, but there's plenty of time to make that up this season and beyond for Nabers.

Fantasy Advice: If you're rostering Nabers, you have to start him this week against the Cowboys on Sunday night.

Can Likely rise above the non-Nabers riff-raff in the Giants' receiving room to be the second target? All we've seen from Likely are small samples, but coming over from Baltimore in free agency to reunite with Harbaugh, Likely has a solid shot to get a full-time role at tight end and be a difference maker alongside Nabers. Likely has shown some moderate efficiency, but had his worst season as a pro last season with just a 14.3% targets per route run and 1.29 yards per route run. A season with over 60 targets for Likely will be his first, and it's probably going to happen this season. Will any efficiency come with it?

Fantasy Advice: The Cowboys were a middle-of-the-pack defense last season against fantasy tight ends, so it's probably a wash for Likely on an offense that also figures to be in the middle of the pack. He's a high-end TE2, but I'm not going out of my way to start him in Week 1 unless we see some gaudy target numbers and high-end utilization right away.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs – 8:15 PM ET

Implied Point Total: Kansas City 23, Denver 20.5

The Broncos added Jaylen Waddle to the Denver mix via trade and added him to Courtland Sutton , Marvin Mims , Pat Bryant , Evan Engram and Troy Franklin . Nix is certainly not without passing-game weapons. First-time play-caller and offensive coordinator Davis Webb was given the keys to the offense by head coach Sean Payton and should be able to cook with this recipe in 2026.

While it could be a little different Broncos offense than we've been accustomed to, a more modern iteration of it could unlock even more potential with pre-snap motion and the hope of a more condensed personnel utilization than we've been used to with Payton over the last two decades-plus. Nix is coming off back-to-back fantasy QB7 finishes to start his career. A trip to Kansas City, as tough as it may be, could actually be a good thing this early.

Fantasy Advice: Nix will be working against a completely remade Kansas City secondary with rookie corner Mansoor Delane, plus the returning L'Jarius Sneed and safety Alohi Gilman . With Chamarri Connor also unlikely to play, it opens things up for Nix. I like him as a low-end starter this week, where Nix can unleash Waddle, Sutton and the rest of the offense without a lot of resistance.

RBs R.J. Harvey, J.K. Dobbins, & Jonah Coleman

Harvey ramped up his production in the back half of last season, and it's still a muddy backfield with no answers. Not great! Dobbins thrived last season in what was basically an every-down role for Denver before a Lisfranc injury put him out for the season after Week 10. He was brought back in free agency to continue handling that early-down role for the team and working in tandem with Harvey.

Now, Coleman enters the chat and it's even muddier. Drafted in the fourth round, he offers a bit of a varied profile, taking parts from both Harvey and Dobbins' skill sets. It's hard to know how this backfield shakes out in Week 1, but we'll get some answers at the very least.

Fantasy Advice: At the outset, I'm fine starting both Harvey and Dobbins as low-end flex plays, and keeping Coleman being on the bench until we get a true sense of what roles each player has and how it will shake out.

Traded to Denver in the offseason, Waddle has been one of the most efficient per-route receivers in the NFL over his five seasons in Miami, and he still commands targets at an excellent rate with 23.8% targets per route run last season. We know Denver will score quite a bit, and Nix can let Waddle work the middle of the field to great success. If Webb can keep the big route numbers to Waddle and Sutton, while rotating the other wide receivers like Bryant, Franklin, Mims and others amongst each other and not the top receivers, we'll be cooking with gas. Week 1 will be a big test and showcase for Webb, as he, Waddle and the rest of the Broncos face the Chiefs and a remade secondary.

Fantasy Advice: Waddle should be in every lineup as a locked-in WR2 with upside for much more on Monday Night Football.

Sutton may be entering his age-31 season, but we'll see if he continues to produce for the Broncos in 2026. Denver traded for Waddle during the offseason, and he is likely the top receiver now for the Broncos. With new offensive coordinator Davis Webb taking the play-calling reins from Sean Payton, this offense could get a little more concentrated and certainly a bit more modern in its approach. With that said, Sutton is fine for what he is: a professional receiver.

Fantasy Advice: Facing off against Kansas City, Sutton may get some nods in the flex from fantasy managers who are looking for immediate production. I don't even hate him as a WR3, either.

Expecting to play in Week 1 with no limitations, Mahomes rehabbed his left knee after a torn ACL and LCL ended his season last December. Prior to that injury, he was on pace for over 500 rushing yards and looking to have his best fantasy season since his QB1 overall finish in 2022. A Mahomes without limitations is scary for multiple reasons, but good news for anybody rostering his pass-catchers.

Fantasy Advice: Starting Mahomes in fantasy feels a bit scary, but I'd be willing to do it if I didn't have another backup or another capable quarterback on my roster. That IS a tough Broncos defense he's going up against, even at home in the friendly confines of Arrowhead.

It's difficult to imagine that Walker wouldn't be a monumental improvement to the Chiefs' running game and offense. Leaning on Walker would be wise for the Chiefs, who will likely have Mahomes back in the saddle at quarterback less than a year after a torn ACL. It's also fair to question if Walker will be as effective as he was in last season's playoffs and Super Bowl, now that he got his huge free-agent contract. With that said, Walker should be a big-time bell-cow for the Chiefs against a stout Broncos' front that allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last season.

Fantasy Advice: Walker is a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 in Week 1 against the Broncos, and should get a sizable workload on Monday night.

When on the field, Rice is a target-earning machine at a super low aDOT. Key phrase: "on the field." Rice has played in just 12 of a possible 34 games over the last two seasons because of suspension and injury, so it's certainly been an odyssey rostering Rice. With that said, he's practicing in full and should be good to go as the Chiefs are at full strength with Mahomes back in the fold for Week 1.

Fantasy Advice: Rice, as long as he's healthy, is a must-start fantasy option.

While we want to write off Worthy as "another Mecole Hardman Jr.-like bust", Worthy is entering his third season and still has the touchdown equity from being on the Chiefs and in an offense tied to Mahomes; we do need to see more to really buy in. Luckily, his price on draft day was nice, but we need actual on-field production.

Fantasy Advice: In a tough matchup against the Broncos, I'm keeping Worthy on my bench with the hope that he figures it out in his third season. He's one of the best bench holds, but the information we'll get in the first week or two of the season will tell us if we need to keep holding on to him or not.

For fantasy football, Kelce has been a model of consistency throughout his long and storied NFL career, with 10 straight seasons of at least 100 targets and never finishing worse than TE7 at any point in his career. Up until last season, Kelce had a TPRR above 20% in every season. Kelce's PPR value holds even more weight, with no fewer than 72 catches and 823 yards in his 11 seasons after his first full season in 2014. He still maintained a solid 8.3 yards per target last season, fully in line with his prime marks, as well as a 20% first-read target rate.

This season, Kelce is a more projectable volume fantasy play than an upside, ceiling play. He's still going to get his receptions, but some of the YAC stuff may keep falling due to the ravages of age. Father Time comes for everybody, after all. Week 1 is going to be especially tough, even at home, against the Broncos, who are a big-time AFC contender. They allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season, so they can make life tough for an on-the-mend Mahomes and Kelce in his advanced age.

Fantasy Advice: Kelce is a perfectly fine TE1 in Week 1 even against the Broncos' tough defense, but especially in PPR formats where he can rack up catches.