Fantasy Football: From Daniel Jones' health to the Jaguars' RB situation, here are the storylines that will define Week 1

My wife and I have been watching the new HBO series Lanterns when we've got time. First, it's an excellent show. Kyle Chandler and Aaron Pierre are the perfect pairing. Anyway, I went in with expectations of a traditional superhero show. Some banter, lots of constructs and action sequences serving as the shroud for a single plotline. Instead, since the first episode, the storylines have diverged. Each with its own mystery that has me looking for clues each weekend.

The last two days have set us up for a similar atmosphere of confusion. We've already had tectonic injuries and an off-field legal case that have destroyed months of preparation. And we haven't even gotten to our first full Sunday of action. So, to help put most of Week 1 in perspective before the real chaos hits, here are the storylines I'll be monitoring as we take our first step into the 2026 season.

To be clear, the subtext to my subtitle isn't to point a conspiratorial finger at the Colts. I'll leave that to DK Metcalf . Regardless, Daniel Jones' mobility has been more proof of concept than fact.

Theoretically, Indianapolis ' QB1 is as healthy as can be. Jones has been a full participant in practice. By all accounts, he's taken his full reps without any restrictions. But even the clip above highlights how different a practice can be versus live action. Not to mention sustaining the same level of play for at least the next four months. And with three skill players in the top 100, I don't need to remind you of how things looked without Jones under center.

(Ranks in) Yards per Drive: 1st (Jones Healthy), 25th (Jones Hurt or Out)

Other than the nostalgia of watching Philip Rivers throwing TDs in 2025 , nothing was holding our interest in this offense. Jonathan Taylor went from the RB2 in PPG to the RB16. We had to talk ourselves into starting the pass-catchers. As such, we'll be watching every Jones dropback with bated breath.

Some play-caller/QB pairings, like Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, aren't fair. California may have another in the works.

Watching Justin Herbert uncork a deep ball is a marvel. And yet, he was sitting close to the middle of the pack in completion rate on downfield shots last year. But new OC Mike McDaniel was creating explosives out of kindling in Miami . Hence the excitement surrounding the two connecting in L.A. But the tendencies surrounding McDaniel's play-calling have us second-guessing who benefits the most from the coaching hire.

Neutral Dropbacks per Game (2022-2025): 28th

From Jerick McKinnon to Elijah Mitchell to Raheem Mostert to De'Von Achane, the RBs under McDaniel have seen success as rushers and receivers. But the intertwining of the run and pass game left the Dolphins in the bottom five for play volume. We're sacrificing opportunity for efficiency. So while we like highlight plays from Herbert, if it's just one of 20 attempts on the day, there may be some worry about his value to our fantasy teams.

Kyler Murray : (Short) King in the North

We had two QBs sign veteran-minimum contracts elsewhere after their first team released them. But just one has fantasy appeal.

The Kyler Murray comeback tour begins in Minnesota this Sunday. He'll have everything he needs. An above-average offensive line , one of the better play-callers and a top-tier supporting cast would be any QB's dream. Plus, looking back at Murray's last full season as a starter, there's reason to buy into the pieces connected to the passing game.

2024 Target Rate to Top Target Earner: 4th (among all starters)

I chose these stats specifically because you can almost see which receiver connects to each metric. Justin Jefferson has top-12 upside with a boost in target quality, while maintaining his WR1 role. Even Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson become speculative adds (especially with Brock Bowers shifting the TE landscape) with more stability under center. The distribution might adjust each week, but the down-to-down efficiency from Murray will be the top storyline for the Vikings in Week 1.

I usually don't pay much attention to depth charts. But I take notice when they hint at the confirmation of a prior that I've held most of the offseason.

I highlighted Bhayshul Tuten as one of the worst picks of the middle rounds . Nothing against him personally. But with little usage as a receiver (66th in route rate, 60th in target share – min. 200 snaps), he has a fragile workload. And the team signing Chris Rodriguez Jr., who plays a similar style and has ties to the HC, doesn't help Tuten's case to be the unquestioned RB1.

On the bright side, Jacksonville 's OC did indicate Tuten has tried to grow in all RB roles . And LeQuint Allen Jr., who analysts expected to take on the coveted third-down job , is dealing with an injury. The situation keeps hope alive for Tuten drafters, but how the rotation shakes out will alter their value by Tuesday.

Will Rico Dowdle Take Over Another Backfield?

I'm willing to be open to the idea that I've missed something regarding Rico Dowdle.

The former Panther finds himself on another committee with an established RB at the head. And after watching Aaron Rodgers prefer short passes to getting hit, the environment doesn't lend itself to Dowdle. Jaylen Warren has been the de facto receiving RB. But two things stand out to me.

Rushing Rate (Weeks 9-18): 67% (Dowdle), 29% (Hubbard)

Dowdle has already taken somebody else's job before. Chuba Hubbard was active and healthy over the back half of the year, but the former Cowboy was the RB1. And while Warren may have earned more targets, Dowdle was more effective with his receptions (1.21 vs 1.18 YPRR). In short, as HC Mike McCarthy suggested, the workloads may not be as defined as we think.

Plus, there's the offensive environment to consider. Pittsburgh made additions to its line. Brought in another receiver. The Steelers could look like a modern offense. In that situation, Dowdle profiles as the better option. Not Warren.

Players make all sorts of proclamations about their health. But when J.K. Dobbins made a claim about his sixth year in the league, my ears perked up.

A full season with a top-rusher accolade by Week 17 at an RB33 price? Name your terms. I'll accept any. But Dobbins' own history is working against him. He's missed no fewer than four games since joining the league. Plus, even when healthy, we had questions about the sustainability of his production.

Rushing Success Rate (2024, 2025): 21st (out of 41 qualifiers – min. 30% rushing rate)

In 2025, Dobbins' ceiling was RB14. Despite two games over the century mark and one score in four of 10 starts, the Broncos RB1 couldn't crack the top 12. Even worse, he couldn't garner more than two targets a game.

Dobbins' inability to seize all phases of the job is where RJ Harvey holds our interest. He ended the season as one of 10 rushers with a double-digit target share. And he mixed in as the two-minute option, early-down starter and pass protector. If a split, or even a debut from rookie Jonah Coleman , occurs in Week 1, Dobbins will only be able to keep part of his promise.

All Right, Joe Brady. Show Us What You Got

The Bills promoted their OC and brought on a WR that most fans of his previous team were happy to see him go. Admittedly, my framing paints a pessimistic picture. But there's more to be excited about with Buffalo coming into '26.

DJ Moore reunites with his play-caller from Carolina and walks into the WR1 role without much challenge. While Moore's days of operating as a primary X-receiver are (mostly) over, he shouldn't leave the field under Brady.

In obvious passing situations, the Bills ran the 14th-most plays with at least two TEs on the field. The Bears were just ahead of Buffalo, and Moore had the highest route rate of any Chicago WR and earned just one fewer target than Rome Odunze . Plus, with Keon Coleman or Josh Palmer likely taking the split-end reps, Moore should see more off coverage, allowing him to use his route-running ability to create separation. But back to those heavy-personnel packages I was mentioning.

Dalton Kincaid has been at practice without any setbacks to the lingering effects of the PCL and soft-tissue injuries that plagued him in 2025. And when healthy, he led all Bills' pass-catchers in TPRR. Buffalo is returning four of last year's five starting offensive linemen, giving Josh Allen and James Cook II the same runways. But with Brady taking on a larger role on the team, the story will be how the aerial attack flows through Moore and Kincaid.

Everyone remembers the growing pains that Bears fans had to experience during the first season of Caleb Williams with Ben Johnson. The Titans may be going through the same.

The early returns on Year 2 of Cam Ward have been, to be kind, mixed . He still tends to drift in pockets while waiting for routes to develop. His ball security, or lack thereof , will have fantasy managers gripping their seats any time he scrambles. The lag in synchronizing the offense has wreaked havoc on the outlook for Tennessee 's strongest receiving asset.

(Pre-Season) Air Yard Share: 1st (among TEN pass-catchers)

Looking back at last season, Brian Daboll's QBs ( Jaxson Dart , Russell Wilson ) were just above the league average in passing aDOT and average time to throw. Their use of quick hitters and pre-snap motion took some of the pressure off them. But in Tennessee, we're yet to see how Daboll will adjust his concepts to Ward's style. And without a strong debut against a weaker opponent, our hopes of scooping late-round value with the Titans may have been a bad strategy.