Tourney talk: Northwestern football’s path to the College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff Committee released their first top-25 rankings just three days ago, and as controversial as this was, there are two monumental takeaways.

The SEC is held in as high of a regard as it was in the Nick Saban era, even after all the turbulence within the conference.

Besides Indiana and UCLA, the committee doesn't believe in the Big Ten this season.

The latter of those statements includes Northwestern, who despite being ranked No. 23 by the AFCA Coaches Poll, was dropped from the top-25 by the AP and the CFP after a one-touchdown loss to Oregon, who snuck in at No. 23 in the CFP rankings. That means it's time for us to regroup and re-evaluate NU's chances at making the tournament.

With four weeks of the regular season left, time is of the essence for NU. Its playoff hopes are dwindling, but haven't faded yet. There's a still a small chance, but it's going to take some elbow grease and a whole lot of luck.

The good: Why NU was considered a CFP contender

The buzz for Northwestern started after it took then-No. 5 Indiana to the brink of defeat, even after the slowest first half of offense it played this year. It started to show its clutch factor — scoring 16 points in the fourth quarter, the most an opponent had posted against IU in the Curt Cignetti era — and if it wasn't for one fatal face mask penalty, that game could've went the other way. A win, and Northwestern would've immediately jumped into the polls. Instead, it got a singular vote from Greg Luca of the San Antonio Express.

That wasn't just pity. It was intentional, based on the tape produced by the Wildcats' offense.

In terms of system fit, Northwestern's personnel is up there with any team in the country: a dual-threat quarterback in Aidan Chiles, two gritty yardage-eaters in the backfield alongside him in Caleb Komolafe and Gavin Sawchuk, a prototypical deep-ball threat in Griffin Wilde, a sneaky-athletic slot receiver in Drew Wagner, freakishly athletic tight ends in Luke Dehnicke and Alex Honig, and the Swiss army knife, Joseph Himon II. Put all of that together, and you've got an innovative wing-T offense that shifts, motions and counters to no end.

It's an offense that the majority of NU's opponents haven't been able to figure out.

Not South Dakota State, who couldn't contain Chiles or stop the jet sweep in Week 1.

Not Colorado, who couldn't I.D. Himon out of the backfield in Week 3.

And for a time in the second half, not even IU, who kept losing Wilde and Dehnicke over the middle in Week 4.

This offense is what dominated in back-to-back weeks, posting nearly flawless showings that flashed the best of both worlds: the ground game against Penn State, the pass game against Ball State.

Pair that with the second-best red zone defense in the Big Ten, that allows scores just 75% of the time, and that's a top-25 team.

By Week 8, NU had checked off every box it could, thrashing the opponents it was expected to beat and snagging a gritty road win in an emotional reunion with former head coach Pat Fitzgerald inside Spartan Stadium.

Then, it went to Eugene, and some chinks in the armor were exposed.

The bad: Why NU is on the outside looking in

There's a lot to unpack that we at Inside NU haven't gotten around to after the 'Cats first-ever trip to Eugene, so let's do that.

Firstly, before anything, it's important to note Northwestern's luck, for better or for worse. Before the start of the season, Halloween was supposed to be the start of an extended spooky season for the Wildcats, facing the preseason No. 2, No. 22 and No. 1 in succession. Two of those teams — Oregon and Ohio State — have dropped in the polls, losing their starting quarterbacks in the process. The third, Iowa, is going through quarterback turbulence right now and doesn't even have a starter named on the depth chart for Week 10.

Before the start of the year, CBS analyst Brad Crawford ranked NU's schedule as the hardest in all of college football, quite literally saying "they aren't making the playoff this season" in a conversation with Claudia Bellofatto.

But he had a point. Oregon and Ohio State's only losses in 2025 were to the eventual national champ Indiana. In the year before, the Ducks won the Big Ten Championship over Penn State, while OSU won the natty in a stretch of four uncompetitive games. Iowa was the model of consistency during those two seasons as well, going 8-5 in '24 and 9-4 in '25.

The Hawkeyes, right now, are arguably the best team of the trio. Oregon lost both its coordinators — OC Will Stein to Kentucky (what a gamble for the Wildcats, huh?) and DC Tosh Lupoi to Cal. Drew Mehringer was given the keys to the offense, and couldn't do the job, getting the booth after a 21-10 loss to Illinois in Week 8. Ohio State was gunning for the nation's No. 1 spot until Julian Sayin suffered an arm injury against Indiana in Week 8. Luke Fahey stepped in his place and was given the wake-up call of his young career against USC.

On top of all this, the Iowa State import into Happy Valley didn't make Penn State nearly as good as it was hyped to be, while Colorado and Michigan State just can't figure it out this year. NU has scooped up more definitive wins as a result, but its strength of schedule (SOS) has suffered.

When you look at who's in and who's out of the first edition of the CFP poll, SOS matters a lot. A 5-3 Florida team playing .500 SEC football can get in with the No. 3 strength of schedule in the nation, per ESPN. It's losses? No. 25 Mizzou, No. 3 Georgia and now-No. 21 South Carolina.

Wait, what? Why are the 5-3 Gamecocks here?

They are 15th in SOS in the country. On top of that, they have a win over No. 11 Tennessee and a TIGHT loss to then-No. 24, now No. 6, Kentucky.

Northwestern, right now, is 34th in that metric. So it doesn't matter how well it plays. If it's not seen as quality competition, it doesn't move the needle.

Oregon, being 21st in SOS, was the first true test for the Wildcats. They failed.

But there are chances for redemption on the horizon.

The roadmap: Who needs to heat up and cool down?

10 SEC teams are in the CFP top 25. That doesn't bode well for a non-blue blood Power Four team like NU, who doesn't get the "benefit of the doubt." Some teams need to tumble, but others need to rattle off some wins to boost the Wildcats' resume.

Northwestern . Self explanatory. In the past two years, three-loss teams have only made the CFP if they've been in the SEC and their third loss was in the conference title game (looking at you, 'Bama). NU's already got two losses. It has no more lifelines. The 'Cats can't afford another loss in the regular season. MAYBE if every domino falls their way and they get to the Big Ten Championship, we can talk about what a "good loss" might do to solidify their chances of getting into the playoff. For now, it's do-or-die.

Oregon . Also self-explanatory. U of O doesn't have the hardest of schedules to end the year, taking on a Sayin-less No. 12 Ohio State this week before rounding out the year with Michigan, Michigan State and Washington. Not the cream of the crop, but if the Ducks end with a 8-4 record, a loss at Autzen Stadium gains so much more credibility.

Here's the catch. They need to lose one of those games. Why? Because NU needs to heighten its chances to get into the Big Ten Championship as much as possible. The safest bet here, without dropping out of the polls, would be to back Michigan State, who gave Northwestern a dogfight and put up a fight against Notre Dame earlier in the year.

Illinois. Okay, yes, I know what you're thinking. Why would I EVER root for Illinois as a Northwestern fan? Hear me out for two seconds.

I'm not saying the Illini should run the table. In fact, the best case scenario would be for them to finish the year 1-3. What I am advocating for is for competitiveness. Keep it tight with UCLA and Iowa, force them out of their offenses, make these games low-scoring affairs and test their guts. It makes the prospect of a multi-touchdown win for Northwestern on rivalry week more enticing for the CFP committee to look at in relation to the other ranked Big Ten teams.

Miami. Right now the ACC has two teams in the hunt to secure an at-large bid for the CFP: No. 1 Miami (8-0) and No. 16 Wake Forest (7-1). However, 6-2 teams SMU, Virginia Tech and Duke are also all still in the hunt to make the ACC title game, and with a big win over Miami in that game, they could steal a bid and vault themselves into the field of 12, shrinking the at-large field to 10 teams. That would be catastrophic for Northwestern.

So if you're a 'Cats fan, the ACC needs to blow up. It's okay if Miami wins the conference — in fact, this is what NU wants to happen.

However, outside of the Hurricanes, NU can't afford for another ACC team to make it into the field. Wake Forest needs to pick up a loss against SMU or Duke, while SMU needs to fall to Notre Dame and Duke must lose to Miami.

And, most importantly, Miami needs to win the ACC title game, so that the conference doesn't produce a bid stealer.

Indiana . The biggest threat to NU's conference title hopes with the head-to-head win at home. Asking the Hoosiers to lose to USC seems reasonable. Asking them to lose to Washington or Purdue is a difficult ask. But it needs to happen. Three losses for the Hoosiers and Northwestern is right back in the mix.

UCLA . To be honest, it's way more likely that NU sneaks into the Big Ten title game if the Bruins lose twice within the next four weeks. Minnesota on the road is a tall task, and USC at the Rose Bowl is bound to bring out Rivalry Week emotion. Those are the two games I've got UCLA on upset alert for.

Notre Dame. NU's odds at sneaking in as a 10 or 11 seed increase exponentially if the Fighting Irish lose to Miami AND a team like SMU or Syracuse. It's certainly possible. North Carolina made it competitive when they went on the road to Chapel Hill and BYU made a case for being the nation's best team by besting them in Provo. Can 'Cuse get it done in The Dome? I'd give it a shot after the Orange won last Saturday against the Mustangs.

Georgia. The more the SEC crumbles, the better. There's been so much parity in the conference in 2026: first, everyone thought Texas was the team to beat. Then, Auburn became the story of the conference. Then, Kentucky blew everyone's minds with a pair of overtime wins over South Carolina and LSU. But through it all, the Bulldogs have been consistently good-to-great. One slip, though, and smoke and mirrors cloud everyone's perception of the SEC.