Week 9 college football best bets: Northwestern, Wisconsin lead road-heavy card

Six of the seven picks on the Week 9 college football best bets card back road teams, including No. 20 Northwestern , which visits an Oregon team that just lost Dante Moore for the season and fired its offensive coordinator.

No. 2 Ohio State lays 6.5 points at USC in its first full game without Julian Sayin. No. 25 Wisconsin gets 3.5 at Iowa, where the Badgers haven't won since 2018. Every game on the card also carries a total pick, and four of them are unders.

Hat tip to Game On Paper and ESPN FPI for providing a lot of the advanced stats and matchup data.

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 12 p.m. ET, Fox

No. 25 Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) beat No. 16 USC 24-7, the Badgers' first regular-season win over the Trojans in program history . Wisconsin held USC to minus-17 rushing yards and sacked the quarterback five times. The defense had to carry the game because Colton Joseph threw for only 58 yards.

Iowa (5-2, 2-2) has won the last four meetings in the series, including a 37-0 win in Madison last season. Badgers coach Luke Fickell knows the Hawkeyes will test his front differently than USC did. Against Iowa, he said, "it's going to be a completely different challenge for us to stop the run."

Iowa's offense, however, is in its worst shape of the season. The Hawkeyes lost 13-10 at Minnesota after Jeremy Hecklinski was pulled in the second quarter, and Hank Brown will start Saturday. Leading rusher Kamari Moulton is also out for the season. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz called the quarterback play "not good enough" and said, "Neither one of them are really experienced right now."

Wisconsin allows 4.15 yards per play, so an Iowa offense without its top back and with an unsettled quarterback shouldn't build a two-score lead. Iowa still averages 28 points per game, and a 20-17 final clears 36.5.

Picks: Wisconsin 20-17, Wisconsin +3.5, O36.5

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network

No. 12 Ole Miss (5-2, 3-2 SEC) came back from 21 points down at Texas to tie the game at 24 but lost 34-27. Trinidad Chambliss went 25 of 52 for 250 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. One of those picks came on fourth-and-goal from the Texas 2 just before halftime.

Texas running back Raleek Brown ran for 157 yards on 23 carries against the Rebels, who bring the SEC's worst run defense into this game. Auburn has a quarterback built to test that weakness. Byrum Brown leads the Tigers with 480 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, and he hasn't turned the ball over in two straight games against Georgia and LSU.

Auburn (4-3, 2-3) lost 38-17 to LSU last week. Still, this is the same team that won at No. 1 Georgia earlier this month, and Ole Miss is its fourth straight ranked opponent. Tigers coach Alex Golesh called the Rebels a "really well-coached football team and, in a big way, a football team that knows how to win ."

Auburn averages 5.66 yards per carry, so its ground game can sustain drives and keep the Ole Miss offense on the sideline. Those longer possessions keep Auburn within two touchdowns and push the total below 57.5.

Picks: Ole Miss 31-24, Auburn +13.5, U57.5

Kansas State (+1.5) vs. Colorado (U46.5)

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 2 p.m. ET, TNT

Kansas State (4-3, 1-3 Big 12) is likely to start its third different quarterback in three weeks. Avery Johnson is out again with an undisclosed injury. Jacob Knuth went 26 of 41 for 194 yards in last week's 28-17 loss at Arizona State and is listed as doubtful . The Wildcats led that game 17-14 in the second half before the Sun Devils scored twice late.

Colorado (2-5, 0-4) is in worse shape. The Buffaloes have lost five straight. Last week they led Oklahoma State 24-23 at halftime, then were outscored 34-0 and held to 120 second-half yards in a 57-24 loss. Coach Deion Sanders said his team's lone constant has been penalties: "That's the only thing we're consistent in is getting penalties , and that doesn't make sense to me."

Colorado averages just 4.04 yards per carry, and quarterback Isaac Wilson lost a fumble on a keeper in Stillwater. The Buffaloes' defense is good enough to slow a Wildcats offense led by a backup, so the under is the safer side.

K-State has also beaten Sanders' teams in each of the last two seasons, including a 31-28 win in Boulder in 2024. A Colorado offense that can't run and keeps giving the ball away hands a short-handed Kansas State team enough chances to win a low-scoring game.

Picks: Kansas State 24-20, Kansas State +1.5, U46.5

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 3:30 p.m. ET, Peacock

No. 20 Northwestern (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) has won four straight. Last week the Wildcats forced three turnovers and recorded four sacks in a 42-14 win over Rutgers. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has 1,617 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, one interception and nine rushing scores. Northwestern's offense is run by Chip Kelly, who was Oregon's head coach from 2009 to 2012.

Oregon (4-3, 2-2) was shut out in the second half of its loss to Illinois. Ducks coach Dan Lanning then fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer. He also ruled out Dante Moore for the rest of the year, saying, "I'm not anticipating him being back this season."

Jay Johnson takes over play-calling. Oregon has turned the ball over 10 times in its last three games while Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas have split starts. Wildcats coach David Braun said the coordinator firing "does certainly put a unique twist on this week's preparation."

Northwestern ranks eighth nationally in adjusted offensive EPA per play, while Oregon ranks 104th. The Ducks' defense still has Matayo Uiagalelei, who is second in the Big Ten with 6.0 sacks, so this projects as a low-scoring game. In that kind of game, the team that protects the ball has the advantage, and Northwestern has done that better than Oregon.

Picks: Northwestern 24-20, Northwestern +3.5, U47.5

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 3:45 p.m. ET, ESPN

No. 6 Utah (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) has the nation's longest active winning streak after a 21-13 win over Houston. Devon Dampier ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns in that game. He also threw two interceptions for the second straight week, including one on a drive with Utah up a point in the fourth quarter .

Cincinnati (5-2) ended a two-game skid by upsetting No. 8 Texas Tech 37-24, its first home win over a top-10 team since 2006. JC French IV threw a career-high four touchdown passes, and Cole Tabb ran for 173 yards. Tabb leads the Big 12 at 9.6 yards per carry. Utes coach Morgan Scalley said, "Their offense is humming right now ."

Bearcats coach Scott Satterfield sees a Utah offense that stays ahead of the chains. "They don't really have many negative plays ," he said.

Utah averages 478.4 yards and 221 rushing yards per game, and Cincinnati allows 6.21 yards per play. Tabb gives the Bearcats enough offense to help push the total over 56.5. Still, Utah should finish more drives, and the Utes win by more than a touchdown if Dampier avoids giving away possessions.

Oklahoma State (-9.5) vs. Iowa State (O57.5)

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 7 p.m. ET, FS1

No. 24 Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) trailed Colorado 24-23 at halftime and won 57-24. Drew Mestemaker threw for 386 yards and four touchdowns, his sixth straight 300-yard game. He also leads FBS with 41 completions of 20 yards or more. "I thought offensively we were in rhythm pretty much the whole entire game," Cowboys coach Eric Morris said.

Iowa State (3-4, 1-3) lost 39-3 at No. 25 Arizona, and first-year coach Jimmy Rogers benched Jaylen Raynor at halftime. Raynor will still start Saturday. "If you have some guys that haven't had a ton of experience, it's better off to have a guy that knows every moving piece ," Rogers said.

The Cyclones allow 7.81 yards per dropback, and Mestemaker should find receivers downfield on that defense. Iowa State's offense has its own problems: it converts just 29.4% of its third downs, which ranks 134th nationally.

Oklahoma State is 6-1 against the spread and averages 40 points per game. Iowa State should still score enough at home to push the total past 57.5, but the Cyclones don't have an offense that can keep up with Mestemaker for four quarters.

Picks: Oklahoma State 38-24, Oklahoma State -9.5, O57.5

Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC

No. 2 Ohio State (6-1) plays its first full game since Julian Sayin injured his throwing arm in the 19-15 win at Indiana on Oct. 17. Coach Ryan Day said the Buckeyes are planning to play through the postseason without Sayin. Day hasn't chosen between true freshman Luke Fahey and redshirt freshman Tavien St. Clair. "Both guys had a good week of practice and both will be ready to play," Day said.

Fahey replaced Sayin at Indiana and is 9 of 13 for 203 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions this season. USC (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) dropped out of the AP Top 25 after running for minus-17 yards in a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin. Trojans coach Lincoln Riley said, "We flat-out didn't play good enough on any of the three sides of the ball ."

USC's defense ranks 125th in adjusted EPA per play, which gives a freshman quarterback a favorable first start. Ohio State's defense allows 4.18 yards per play and 4.47 yards per dropback, and it should keep USC from scoring enough to cover. The Buckeyes don't need to throw much to win by more than a touchdown, so the game should stay under 51.5.

Picks: Ohio State 31-20, Ohio State -6.5, U51.5

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