Ethiopian gov’t forces advance in Tigray as rebels retreat: What to know

Ethiopia’s military and pro-government forces have recaptured the main airport in Mekelle , the capital of Tigray, as the government forces advanced in the northern region after more than a week of intense fighting.

Fighting erupted last week between the federal government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allies, shattering the fragile Pretoria Agreement, a peace deal signed in November 2022.

The fighting has stoked fears that it could escalate into a wider regional conflict, potentially drawing in neighbouring countries in the Horn of Africa.

This is what you need to know about the latest developments:

Ethiopian troops regained control of Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle, a source with knowledge of the events in the city and a humanitarian source told the Reuters news agency.

The airport, about ⁠10km (6 miles) east of the centre of Mekelle, was one of three airfields in the region that were seized by rebel forces at the start of the fighting on September 23.

A third source, a Mekelle resident who asked not to be named for security reasons, confirmed government forces had retaken the airport and added that gunfire could be heard outside the city centre.

This source reported seeing some fighters from the TPLF abandoning their posts and heading home and said looting of government facilities was taking place in the city.

This was also confirmed by a local journalist who told the AFP news agency the “TPLF militants and leaders are leaving Mekelle.”

The journalist added that government offices and police stations had also been left without security personnel.

A local resident told AFP that he was concerned “government and public property could be exposed to looting”.

“Lawlessness could spread in the city, and I am also afraid for my life. I want us to quickly return to law and order,” another resident said.

On Friday, Al Jazeera’s bureau chief in Ethiopia, Mohammed Taha Tawakel, reported that forces loyal to the federal government have made significant gains in Tigray, taking control of several towns and closing in on Mekelle.

The fighting has occurred on several fronts across northern Ethiopia that stretch across the Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions.

Last week, the Tigray Peace Force, an armed group composed of Tigrayan fighters aligned with the federal government, said it had captured the town of Alamata.

Alamata is important because it sits near Tigray’s southern border with Amhara and serves as a supply hub for troops, fuel and food. Control of the town could allow federal forces to push north towards Mekelle.

The offensive in Afar could threaten supply routes from Djibouti, through which most Ethiopian imports, including fuel, pass.

The fighting in Afar also comes amid allegations of direct Eritrean involvement.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of backing armed groups opposed to its government. Eritrea has rejected the accusations

Fighting has also spread into Amhara , including around North Wollo. The Ethiopian military has said about 270 Tigrayan fighters have been killed and more than 200 wounded there.

Outside northern Ethiopia, the conflict appeared to spill into the capital, Addis Ababa, for the first time early on Thursday as an explosion was reported at the Ministry of Defence.

What is the humanitarian situation like?

The fighting is already taking a devastating humanitarian toll.

At least 52 civilians have been killed due to fighting in northern Ethiopia.

Doctors Without Borders, also known by its French acronym MSF, said last week that there had been a surge in the number of wounded in the north.

Amnesty International said on Friday that since the fighting has restarted, it has received “credible reports of destruction of civilian objects through shelling and air strikes, intensified forced conscription, and other acts that may constitute violations of international humanitarian law and international human rights law”.

“The African Union’s Peace and Security Council cannot wait for mass atrocities to unfold or for a surge in civilian casualties before placing Ethiopia, its host country, on the agenda. The AU, which was one of the guarantors of the ceasefire agreement that has now effectively collapsed, must learn from past mistakes and urgently activate its response mechanisms and mobilize its member states before it is too late,” Tigere Chagutah, Amnesty International’s regional director for East and Southern Africa, said in a statement.

“The starting point is for the Peace and Security Council to urgently convene an emergency session on the situation in Ethiopia. This is especially critical as fears of regionalisation of the conflict are on the rise ”.

Analysts fear the current conflict could spread beyond Ethiopia’s borders.

On Thursday, Eritrea cut off diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, escalating a long-simmering conflict between the two states.

In a statement, Eritrea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Ethiopia’s actions had left it with “no option but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia”.

The ministry accused Ethiopia of pursuing a years-long “agenda of incessant hostility”, including by infringing on its coastal areas and arming fighters opposed to Ethiopia’s government.

Eritrea and Ethiopia restored ties in 2018 under Abiy’s leadership after more than 20 years of tensions, but their relations have since soured over Addis Ababa’s accusation that Asmara backs the Tigray rebels.

Ethiopia and Eritrea now also find themselves on opposing sides.

Conflict in their shared neighbour, Sudan, has drawn in both countries, alongside other states in Africa and the Gulf.

Down the coast, Somalia’s security crises are deepening, threatening to fragment the country further as foreign powers eye its self-governing regions for their coastline.

Against this backdrop, the United States-Israel war on Iran and the involvement of Yemen’s Houthis just across the Red Sea from Eritrea have also increased concerns over trade routes through that waterway.

Laura Hammond, professor in development studies at SOAS University of London, told Al Jazeera on Friday that this scenario is already under way.

“The risks that conflict will spread to other countries or that neighbours in the region will be brought into the present conflict are already playing out in terms of Eritrea’s support for the TPLF and the Alliance for Survival,” Hammond said.

“There is a strong possibility that Eritrea will become more involved in the conflict on the ground inside Tigray if it continues much longer,” she continued. “There is also a risk that the conflict could inflame relations with and inside Sudan.”

Eritrea has denied it is involved in the war.