The Trump-to-Mamdani voter is real. How does the trend affect the midterms?

New York City, United States – Ron Barba, 56, voted for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani last year. He also voted for United States President Donald Trump the year before.

One is a democratic socialist. The other is a deep-red Republican. Barba, a tall, outgoing man with bright eyes and a chin dotted with white stubble, knows the two politicians hail from opposite ends of the political spectrum. He does not care.

“Both of them were awesome,” Barba said.

Barba has become the face of a small but striking trend in New York City. Exit polling after last year's mayoral race suggested that 9 percent of the city's Trump voters in 2024 proceeded to back Mamdani.

Such swing voters could be critical in the upcoming midterm elections on November 3. Control over Congress is likely to be decided by a few key toss-up races.

But experts caution against reading the Trump-Mamdani crossover as a new voting bloc.

Rather, they say it's part of a familiar trend of voters seeking relief among populists for their economic frustrations, as well as searching for a break from the political establishment.

“A lot of times those people are reacting to economic performance, essentially,” said Brian Shaffner, a political science professor at Tufts University.

“And a lot of the time, they are just voting against whoever's in office or voting for the outsider candidate who they think will shake things up.”