‘Supersized’ El Nino could reshape global weather and push 2027 to heat record: UN

A "supersized" El Nino could strengthen further into 2027 and potentially become the strongest such event ever recorded, raising the risk of extreme weather including droughts, heavy rainfall and powerful tropical storms worldwide, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Thursday.The UN weather agency said there is an almost 100% probability that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It said this was the first time it had expressed such a high level of confidence in El Nino's continued presence.“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters at a news conference in Geneva.El Nino is a recurring climate pattern caused by changes in ocean temperatures and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and can last for up to 12 months, disrupting weather patterns across large parts of the world.A particularly strong El Nino can alter normal rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the likelihood of severe droughts, flooding, heavy rainfall and powerful tropical storms. Its effects can also disrupt agriculture and food supplies, particularly in vulnerable regions.Warming Pacific raises concernThe WMO said Pacific Ocean temperatures linked to the current El Nino are already more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. The event is among only four classified as "very strong" in records dating back to 1950.Although El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon and is not directly caused by fossil fuel-driven climate change, rising global ocean temperatures can influence its intensity and amplify its impacts.“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.The effects are already being felt across tropical regions, including through disruptions to soft commodity production. In Central America's Dry Corridor, El Nino-related weather conditions have contributed to a severe food crisis.2027 could see temperature recordThe WMO expects the current El Nino to peak towards the end of this year, but warned that its influence could extend into 2027 and contribute to elevated global temperatures, as per the Reuters.Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO's chief of climate prediction services, said El Nino events are normally followed by a temporary increase in global temperatures.“Normally after an El Nino event we tend to see a pulse in global temperatures — a temporary one,” he said, referring to 2024, which was the hottest year on record so far. “2027 has the potential to be the warmest on record.”The potential for a record-strength El Nino has prompted the WMO to strengthen preparedness and early-warning measures to help governments anticipate its impacts.Such measures could include early shifts towards drought-resistant crops in vulnerable regions and preparedness across climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, health, energy and water resources.“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” Saulo said.Catch the latest World News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.