El-Sayed narrowly leads Rogers in Michigan Senate race: Poll

Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed holds a slight lead over his opponent , former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, a new poll shows.

The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday found that El-Sayed garnered 48 percent support and Rogers received 46 percent, while 4 percent of respondents remained undecided and 2 percent chose another candidate in the race to succeed outgoing Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.).

Of the 1,000 Michiganders polled, Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted “there’s a substantial educational divide in the Senate race.”

“Voters without a four-year degree favor Rogers, 48 percent to 45 percent, while college graduates support El-Sayed, 53 percent to 42 percent,” he added.

El-Sayed led among respondents who identified as independents at around 47.5 percent support to Rogers’s 44.8 percent. Rogers, meanwhile, led El-Sayed among respondents 40 years old and above.

Rogers and El-Sayed are battling in one of seven Senate races that the election handicapper Cook Political Report rates as a “toss-up.”

In the Wolverine State’s gubernatorial election, the Democratic nominee, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, held a 7 point lead over her opponent, Rep. John James (R-Mich.), at 49 percent support and 42 percent, respectively. Three percent of respondents favored someone else, and 6 percent were undecided. Candidates are running to replace term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), who is seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Respondents were also asked if they held a favorable or unfavorable view of all candidates in the Senate race.

Forty-nine percent of respondents held a favorable view of El-Sayed, compared to 42 percent who favored Rogers. Forty-four percent of pollsters had an unfavorable view of El-Sayed, while 46 percent viewed Rogers unfavorably. The remaining 7 percent indicated they were neutral or never heard of El-Sayed and 12 percent responded the same for Rogers.

The candidates were slated to participate in a debate with Detroit’s Fox affiliate Tuesday, but Rogers’ campaign pulled out due to “media bias” — citing the debate’s moderator journalist Roop Raj.

“Roop Raj has made his position clear, from praising Abdul as ‘brilliant,’ to being celebrated by Hasan Piker as ‘my GOAT,’ and bragging about his political stunts,” Alyssa Brouillet, the Rogers campaign’s communications director said in a statement .

Despite Rogers’s absence from Tuesday’s debate, El-Sayed attended, standing beside an empty podium.

Thursday’s poll was conducted between Sept. 12-14 among 1,000 likely Michigan voters and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.