Alaska governor’s race shifts to toss-up: Cook Political Report

Nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted Alaska’s gubernatorial race to a toss-up on Thursday after previously leaning Republican.

Jessica Taylor, the handicapper’s Senate and governors editor, reported that new AARP polling found Democratic former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins had 40 percent of respondents’ backing, while his closest challenger — conservative businesswoman Bernadette Wilson (R) — garnered 20 percent.

The remaining two candidates, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor (R), polled 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively.

Jessica Taylor wrote that Alaska’s ranked choice voting leaves the GOP vulnerable, as the party fears voters will fail to rank gubernatorial candidates beyond the first pick. The ranking system diminishes the advantages Republicans would have in the race for governor given that there are two on the ballot.

“The AARP poll backs up that fear, finding that a quarter of GOP voters — who overwhelmingly backed Trump by a 41-point margin — simply aren’t ranking anyone in the contest, which is helping Kreiss-Tomkins and hurting Wilson, who was the top Republican vote-getter in the primary,” she continued.

The Cook editor noted that, though Wilson won votes in the primary, the businesswoman has called on Bronson and Treg Taylor to step out of the race and show her support.

“Further voter education from Republicans on the RCV system could help tighten this contest, so we are only moving it into Toss Up for now given the high volatility of a race that’s difficult to game out,” the editor concluded. “But Kreiss-Tomkins is winning independent voters by 34 points, also helping him solidify his frontrunner status.”

The handicapper previously considered the race to replace term-limited Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) as “likely Republican,” shifting away from solidly red, due to the “ranked-choice complexities.”

Democrat Tom Begich dropped from the race in August and backed Kreiss-Tomkins, with both having advanced to the general election in the Last Frontier’s open primary.