3 battlegrounds where ticket-splitting could make the difference

A handful of key gubernatorial and Senate contests in battleground states could hinge on split-ticket voters as Republicans look to keep control of both offices.

Split-ticket voting has dwindled in recent cycles: A Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecast from last week suggests an average gap of more than 6 percentage points between the Senate and gubernatorial races this cycle with a median difference of 5 points — a far cry from the 28-percentage point average margin gap between the races and 25-point median difference in 1990.

Despite lower rates of ticket-splitting, the rare voters that cross party lines may prove decisive in Democrats’ hopes of a sweep on Election Day as they look to capitalize on the GOP’s bleak political outlook.

More than two dozen states are holding elections for both Senate and governor next week. Seven states — according to the analysis from DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley last week — are most likely to see ticket-splitting: Maine, Iowa, Alaska, New Hampshire, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.

Here’s three key states The Hill’s keeping a close eye on:

One state that is almost certain to see split-ticket voting is the Granite State.

DDHQ forecasts Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) has a 72 percent probability of winning reelection and Rep. Chris Pappas (D) has an 84 percent chance of succeeding Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

New Hampshire is no stranger to splitting its ticket: The state voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, Ayotte and two Democratic House members in 2024. While former Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, served as the top executive of the state from 2017 to 2025, Shaheen and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) served in the Senate during that same period.

Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said Ayotte had the resources early on to define herself by airing advertising on largely bipartisan issues while also tying Democrat Cinde Warmington to the opioid crisis — an attack line that was used against the Democrat in her unsuccessful 2024 gubernatorial bid.

Warmington was a lobbyist for OxyContin-maker Purdue Pharma, and she also represented several people with ties to a clinic that was accused of overprescribing the opioid, according to New Hampshire Bulletin . She has said she didn’t know the dangers of the medication at the time.

“If I had known in 2001 what we all later learned, I would never, ever have done this work,” she said of her time at Purdue Pharma in a video to supporters.

Regardless, Ayotte has effectively tied this work to the Democrat, Scala argued.

“Warmington really hasn’t had the resources to reply effectively and to try to move the conversation onto something else,” Scala added.

The Senate race is more national, however, Scala said, pointing to Trump’s poor approval ratings, the state’s slight Democratic tilt and the large deficit Sununu is tasked with making up in a bleak environment for the GOP as boosting Pappas. Scala also suggested the Democrat has been “underrated” as a candidate.

“The whole congressional delegation: Shaheen, Hassan, [Democratic Rep. Maggie] Goodlander, Pappas — they’re all very comfortable in that center-left lane.” Scala said. “They might get dinged as moderates during a primary, like Pappas did, but … the New Hampshire electorate has a comfort level with these sorts of politicians.”

Democrats in Iowa are increasingly bullish about winning the governor’s mansion, with Rob Sand largely leading Republican Zach Lahn in the polls. As of Wednesday afternoon, Sand holds a 6-point lead over his opponent in DDHQ’s polling average , forecasting a 70 percent probability that the Democrat wins next week.

But flipping retiring Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R) seat may be a tougher task. Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are neck and neck , as Hinson leads her opponent by less than half a percentage point in the latest average. DDHQ projects Hinson has a 54 percent chance of winning the seat in November.

Timothy Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said Sand may be better positioned than Lahn because of “no party” or independent voters.

These Iowans, who often make or break elections in the state, tend to like incumbents. Even though Sand is not an incumbent, he may be treated as one since he already holds statewide office and wider name recognition.

Hagle suggested Lahn has also had to work hard to introduce himself to Republican voters as a lesser known candidate than his chief primary rival, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R).

“He’s got to convince Republicans that he’s sufficiently conservative enough that they’re going to actually vote for him,” Hagle said.

In the Senate race, the professor noted Hinson has an easier leap from the House to the Senate than her rival, who serves in the state House.

“Hinson had a much better command of the details and the programs, and she can speak to specific things that she introduced into Congress,” he said of Hinson’s debate performance.

“Turek just didn’t have that,” Hagle added, noting the state lawmaker didn’t have the same record to cite.

One other state worth watching is the Buckeye State, where Democrats are looking to wrest back control of the governor’s mansion and Senate. A DDHQ forecast shows Democrat Amy Acton with a 60 percent chance of winning the governor’s race against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.

Ramaswamy’s campaign took a hit last week when it aired a controversial ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother Donna Arthur, who called her daughter “a liar” and urged voters not to support her.

Acton’s stepfather was indicted by a grand jury for sexually abusing Acton when she was a child. Acton’s brother Philip Stearns condemned the ad and said he and his sister were removed from Arthur’s care after their stepfather’s arrest. Arthur remained married to her husband until his death.

“If there was any kind of event that really changed the trajectory of the campaign, it was the Ramaswamy ad and the blowback to it,” Paul Beck, professor emeritus and academy professor of political science at Ohio State University, told The Hill.

The gubernatorial candidate and fellow Democrats denounced the ad, and some Republicans have even suggested that Ramaswamy shouldn’t have run the ad at all.

Beck suggested that controversy “really moved” the contest “out of a ‘too close to call’ contest to one in which Acton would be favored to be the winner.”

Meanwhile, the Senate race between Sen. Jon Husted (R) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is a bit tighter, with DDHQ giving Brown a 55 percent chance of winning the seat in the upper chamber.

Ohio has trended Republican in recent years, but Brown’s name recognition in the state could push him across the finish line. Brown lost reelection to the Senate just two years ago.

But Beck chalks the tighter match-up in the Senate up to the fact that both Democrats and Republicans have aired effective attack ads.

“The Husted campaign has done a pretty good job in its ads at depicting Sherrod Brown as somebody who has been in office long enough,” Beck said, adding that the Ohio Democrat’s campaign has effectively tied the incumbent to Trump.