Trump’s deportation agenda haunts him in 2 high-profile House races

President Trump’s deportation agenda is haunting him in two key House races as polls show Latino voters turning on the president and Republicans a month out from the midterm elections.

The issue is acutely playing out in Florida’s 27th and Texas’s 15th congressional districts, where incumbent Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) and Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), respectively, are facing competitive reelection bids.

Salazar made headlines last month when she released a video filmed in front of the White House, warning Trump that Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024 feel betrayed by his immigration policies.

De La Cruz released her own ad the same day, touting her efforts to release a Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipient from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody.

“What they’re doing is they’re trying to show distance between themselves and the president. They’re trying to unanchor themselves because he is so unpopular,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist and Trump critic who specializes in Latino voting behavior and trends.

“The best symbolic way to do that is on the immigration issue,” he continued. “You can’t really distance yourself from him on the economy because nobody knows what his economic policy is day to day. So what are you standing against? The immigration issue is very clear.”

Trump and Salazar carried Florida’s 27th Congressional District by 15 points and 20 points, respectively, in 2024, while he and De La Cruz carried Texas’s 15th Congressional District by 15 points and 14.2 points, respectively.

“They both should be Republican districts on paper,” Madrid said.

Democrats are making a concerted effort to flip the two seats with the party’s campaign arm adding Salazar’s opponent, Eliott Rodriguez, to its “Red to Blue” program. The campaign arm also rolled out a $13 million ad buy in 35 races, including in De La Cruz’s district, on Monday.

In a statement to The Hill, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Bridget Gonzalez accused De La Cruz and Salazar of “trying to rewrite their immigration record.”

“They’ve cheered on Trump’s extremist agenda and out-of-control ICE operations at every turn, and voters can see right through them,” Gonzalez said.

One Republican operative speaking on the condition of anonymity pushed back on the Democratic narrative on the races, arguing Salazar’s and De La Cruz’s stances on immigration are no surprise.

“The Maria Salazar ad, I think, was mostly a surprise to people who have never heard of Maria Salazar,“ the GOP operative said. “It was definitely not a shock to us.”

“Monica De La Cruz, the same thing,” they added.

The lawmakers’ supporters note Salazar introduced the Dignity Act, which calls for a legal “Dignity Status” for immigrants who have resided in the U.S. for years without a criminal history.

De La Cruz has touted her role in helping to secure the release of a family that included two teenage mariachi students in March.

Republicans across the board appear to be in trouble with the Latino voting bloc, which helped to boost Trump and the GOP two years ago.

An NBC News/Telemundo poll released over the weekend showed Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot 59 percent to 35 percent among Latino voters. Meanwhile, a recent CBS News poll showed 60 percent of Hispanic voters saying they plan to vote Democratic in November, while 39 percent said they planned to vote Republican.

Other polls show Hispanic and Latino voters unhappy with Trump’s immigration policies in states like Texas.

A Cook Political Report survey of Texas Hispanic voters released last month found that nearly 66 percent of Hispanic voters in the state said they would be less likely to back a candidate who supported Trump’s immigration policies.

Trump, himself, acknowledged he struggled with messaging on the issue of immigration during a Hispanic Heritage Month event at the White House.

“Frankly, it’s the hardest job that I’ve had,” Trump told a crowd of Hispanic and Latino supporters. “They’ll say you’re too tough or you’re too soft. Get tougher, get softer. No matter what you do, it’s always tough.”

One Latino Democratic strategist emphasized the importance of tying Republicans to Trump’s messaging on the matter, even as they shift their rhetoric.

“I see a lot of people softening the way they’re talking about this stuff,” the Democratic strategist said. “He’s such a wild card, and I don’t know how much of what he says trickles down.”

“We need to show him his decisions, his actions, and that’s what matters,” the strategist added.

However, both Republicans and Democrats emphasize that immigration is not the top priority for Hispanic and Latino voters, noting that the economy remains top of mind for the voting bloc.

“If the economy were doing really well, we probably would not be having this conversation, certainly to the extent that we are,” Madrid said. “Immigration has become a compounding issue on top of the economy, but it is a secondary consideration.”