Democrats lead Republicans by 37 points among likely young voters: Survey

Democrats are leading Republicans by 37 points among young voters who say they’ll definitely cast their ballots this fall, according to the latest Harvard Youth poll.

On a generic House ballot, Democrats are ahead with 45 percent to 24 percent among voters aged 18-29, a 21-point advantage. Among voters who are certain they’ll vote in the midterms, though, Democrats climb to 63 percent against the GOP’s 26 percent, a 37-point difference with another 10 percent still undecided.

Just a third of young Americans say they’ll definitely vote this fall, down from 40 percent who said the same in both the 2018 and 2022 midterms. But more Democrats than Republicans expressed that certainty, a 16-point gap, up from 5 points in 2022 and 11 points in 2018, signaling enthusiasm from the left.

“Young voters are poised to deliver a sharp rebuke to President Trump, while the broader generation is sending a message to everyone in power,” John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard’s Institute of Politics, said in a statement.

“Just 1 in 4 young Americans expects to be better off financially than their parents — and with corruption near the top of their concerns, leaders will have to earn trust by making life more affordable and showing whose interests they serve.”

Among likely young voters, 63 percent say their congressional vote is driven by opposition to Trump and his policies, compared to 14 percent who describe their vote as support.

Economy reigns as the top issue for young voters as they cite concerns with the country’s direction, government corruption and AI-driven job displacement.

Young voters, who had long favored Democrats, shifted toward Trump and Republicans in the 2024 presidential cycle, driven by economic woes and frustration with the status quo.

Two years later, though, young voters appear to be turning back to Democrats as a rebuke of the president and the GOP’s control on Capitol Hill.

A New York Times/Siena poll this week also found 70 percent of young voters identified as Democrats or leaned that way, a 15-point increase from the outlets’ last poll before the 2024 election.

That poll found young voters favor Democrats on a generic congressional ballot by 44 percentage points, up from a 10-point margin in the last cycle.

“The takeaway here is not that young voters are suddenly all Democrats. It’s that Gen Z is swingy. This is a generation raised on instant gratification, frustrated by the status quo and rising cost of living. They want change,” Rachel Janfaza, founder of the Gen Z-focused media and strategy firm The Up and Up, wrote on social media Thursday, sharing the Times’ numbers.

Conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 7 among 2,024 Americans aged 18-29, the Harvard Youth poll had a margin of error of 2.6 percent for the total sample, 3.19 percent for registered voters and 4.3 percent for young Americans who plan to “definitely vote” in the fall.

The Times polling was conducted Oct. 12-19 among 3,494 voters and had a 1.3 percent margin of error for the full sample.