New poll signals movement in Talarico vs Paxton Texas Senate race

A new Texas Pulse poll shows the Democrat widening his lead over the Republican in the Texas Senate race , with Election Day more than a month away.

Published Sept. 17, the ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll showed that Democrat James Talarico 's lead has grown to 6 points — outside the poll's margin of error — over Republican Ken Paxton , 49%-43%.

"This movement can also be seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Talarico by 40 points, 64-24%, up from 23 points, 53-30% in July," ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said.

Here's a deeper look at the poll and how it compares to other September polls.

James Talarico widens lead over Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race

The latest Texas Pulse poll was conducted Sept. 8 to 11 among 614 likely Texas voters and has an overall margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.

The poll found that Paxton has a negative favorability rating — 38%-55% — down slightly from 40-52% in July. Talarico has a positive favorability rating of 50-39%, up from 46-39% in July.

When asked who they think will win the election, 48% of voters say Talarico while 45% say Paxton.

The poll also found another shift: a quarter of voters didn't have an opinion about Talarico in June — now it's just 10%.

"Paxton's Senate bid is being undermined by defections from within his own party," Hendren said. "While nearly all Democrats say they are supporting Talarico, just under 9 in 10 Republicans say they are supporting Paxton."

What previous Texas Senate polling showed

This is the latest poll in September as the election cycle enters its final stretch to Election Day on Nov. 3.

Here's what September polls have shown so far:

Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%.

SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.

AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.

N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com .