Why Donald Trump has a Joe Biden problem

During the 2024 presidential campaign, President Trump repeatedly slammed then-President Biden for not understanding the economic pain Americans were feeling.

In rallies and speeches, Trump made the case that Biden and his small circle of aides were touting jobs numbers and low unemployment but were still out of touch with the rising cost of groceries, housing and other expenses.

Now, with just 49 days left until the midterm elections, some Republicans worry Trump is confronting the same kind of economic disconnect that plagued his predecessor.

“Trump has a Biden problem,” one of the president’s former campaign aides told The Hill. “He’s basically saying, ‘Look at the numbers; you’re wrong in how you feel.’ That’s the same exact thing Biden was saying, and that’s why we won.”

The war in Iran, which began in February, has caused gas prices to rise rapidly, while airfare, travel and shipping have soared.

Tariffs have also contributed to higher prices on consumer goods. Inflation, which stood at 2.7 percent at the end of 2025, was 3.4 percent in August, according to a Friday report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Those figures could also create a headache for Republicans heading into November.

Trump has repeatedly blamed a bad economy he inherited from Biden for any bad economic news while touting good news about the economy, including low unemployment.

But many Americans aren’t feeling the good economic vibes as they struggle to pay their rent or mortgages or fill up their cars. And the Trump messaging, like the Biden messaging when the Democrat was in the White House, is falling flat.

Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who worked as a senior adviser on Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in 2012, agreed there is a parallel, saying there’s “a fundamental question at the heart of the average voter’s assessment of the president” and the broader system in Washington, and that is, “Do they understand what I’m going through?”

“In 2024, Biden was underwater with voters largely because he seemed out of touch with both the causes and the solutions related to the issue of inflation,” Madden said. “For too long, he claimed it was temporary, and then he took too long to provide any real solutions to address the pain the issue was causing.”

“Fast forward to 2026, and members of Congress are returning to their states and districts and hearing a similar refrain about the cost of living,” Madden added. “Voters need to know that Washington gets it and is doing something about it.”

In recent weeks, the president has sought to persuade Americans he understands their frustration — while arguing the higher costs stemming from war are necessary.

“Ultimately, prices are going to come down. … Will it happen before the election? I can’t tell you that, but I think people are very smart,” Trump said late last month, answering a question from a reporter on the elevated prices. “They know we had to go into Iran. It only went up because of Iran.”

Polling underscores voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the Trump administration’s handling of economic affairs.

A Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed 32 percent of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 65 percent disapproved.

Among independent voters, the numbers were even starker, with 21 percent approving of Trump’s handling of the economy and 75 percent disapproving.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll out at the end of August showed 22 percent of those surveyed said they approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 71 percent disapproved.

The same survey also revealed 47 percent of registered voters said the cost of living would be the most important factor in deciding their vote in November’s midterms.

Republicans say the poll numbers underscore the difficult path ahead in trying to convince voters about their economic anxieties, particularly as they see the war in Iran drag on and gas prices jump by the day.

“Trump’s challenge, much like Biden, is that it’s hard to tell people what they feel is wrong,” Republican strategist Doug Heye said.

Democrats acknowledge there are parallels between Biden’s and Trump’s insistence that voters would come around. But they say that unlike Republicans on Biden, Democrats have a better story to tell on Trump because his direct actions on Iran and tariffs caused a shaky economy.

“The macro is the same, but what’s very different is that Trump is actively doing things that are making people’s lives worse,” one Democratic strategist said. “The public can make the connection on Trump’s meddling in the economy, which is making things more expensive.”

Susan Del Percio, a longtime Republican strategist who does not support Trump, warned that Trump’s approach on the economy may not be effective.

“Trump is basically saying to voters, ‘Get over it. Man up. And believe me because I’m always right,’” Del Percio said. “Well, voters aren’t seeing that anymore.”

While other Republicans acknowledge Trump may change course depending on the results of the midterms, Del Percio said she has her doubts.

“If Republicans lost the House and Senate, he’s not going to change,” she said. “He believes in what he’s saying. He is in that bubble. And it’s not even being disconnected. He’s just living in the land of Trump.”