Democrats make sharp gains among Latino voters in battleground districts: Poll

A new poll found that Democratic candidates have made notable gains among Latino voters living in battleground House districts since 2024 — gains that could determine control of Congress next year.

A new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll shared with Axios shows that Democrats hold a 58 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot among the fastest-growing swing electorate across 17 competitive House districts, with Republicans winning the support of 35 percent of Latino voters.

The poll found that Latino voters in three competitive House races in Texas went from a self-reported 44-44 split on the 2024 presidential race to 56-36 in favor of Democrats going into the midterms.

Latino support for Democrats has also risen in other states, with 57 percent in California saying they will back Democrats compared to 33 percent who say they will back the GOP.

“Latino voters aren’t locked into one party,” Kate Coleman, TelevisaUnivision’s senior vice president, told Axios. “They’re paying close attention and making decisions based on who shows up for them, and how they’re showing up.”

Pollsters found that 11 percent of Latino respondents who said they voted for President Trump in 2024 now back Democratic candidates. The president has seen his support from Latinos sour as he has ramped up his deportation agenda, stoking fear in many Latino neighborhoods.

Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision found that 63 percent of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, with 36 percent saying they support his job performance.

His handling of high prices — and the cost of living — also faces 65 percent disapproval from Latino voters, with 62 percent also saying they do not approve of his handling of immigration enforcement and deportations. More than half, 64 percent, of Latino voters disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A poll from UnidosUS released in May showed a quarter of Latino voters said they either “probably would not vote for Trump again” or definitely would not back him in the case they “had to do it over again.”

The poll showed at the time that Democrats had not made many gains in the wake of Trump’s unpopularity among Latino voters.

Pew Research Center data showed that Trump’s support among Latino voters improved in 2024, receiving 48 percent of the Latino vote, just short of the 51 percent won by former Vice President Kamala Harris.

The worry among some Democrats is whether the rising tide of democratic socialist victories in the primaries could leave some Latino voters — including those who fled Cuba or Venezuela — with a sour outlook on the party going into November.

The Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted Aug. 6-17 and included 1,500 Latino respondents. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.