Vance-Cruz battle suggests GOP gloves coming off in presidential fight

When Vice President Vance and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) traded increasingly personal barbs over the last few days, one thing was clear: Not only is the 2028 Republican primary officially underway, but the gloves are already coming off.

The tiff began when Vance swiped at Cruz last week, saying it was “really obvious” that the Texas senator was running for president.

Then in an interview over the weekend, Cruz pushed back, saying, “In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure.”

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“So he’s welcome to make whatever comments he likes,” Cruz told Politico in the interview.

The exchange offered an early glimpse into how top Republicans — who have played nice so far — may switch gears after the midterms.

It also might underscore the nerves surrounding the midterms; Republicans are bracing for bruising losses in the House and Senate, even as they battle to hold their congressional majorities.

Behind the scenes, Republicans are worried about how big midterm losses could translate to the race in 2028. The GOP is faltering in the midterms in large part because of President Trump’s own falling approval ratings. How might that impact Vance in the run-up to 2028?

If the GOP does have a poor midterm election year, does that give momentum to Cruz and other potential Republican presidential candidates who are not a part of the Trump administration?

Trump, for his part, hasn’t picked a successor, seemingly enjoying the competition surrounding Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“Vance should be insecure because of Donald Trump’s poll numbers and the fact that at this point Trump isn’t even willing to commit to his vice president is very telling,” said Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who does not support the president.

Del Percio explained that Vance finds himself in a precarious spot because he has to appear like there is no distance between himself and the president. And if he starts to look like he’s breaking with Trump, “that could be the beginning of the end” with the president, she said.

“There is no winning for JD Vance,” Del Percio explained. “He’s either too Trump or not enough Trump. And Cruz has found his moment to play on a no-win situation for JD Vance.”

“If you’re Cruz it’s just good politics,” she added. “He’s found a weak spot, and he’s not letting go.”

But one Trump administration official said Monday that if the vice president decides to run, Cruz may realize that it could be an uphill battle for him, which is why he’s taking the early shots at Vance.

The early jockeying comes as Trump’s approval ratings have reached all-time lows — much of which can be attributed to the war in Iran, high gas prices and inflation.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted late last month, for example, showed the president with a 32 percent approval rating, with 66 percent disapproving of his job performance.

A recent Associated Press/NORC poll was even more dire for the commander in chief. That survey showed just 26 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the economy and only 17 percent approved of his handling of the cost of living.

The poll also revealed that 65 percent believed Trump’s policies were more responsible for high costs than factors outside his control while 7 in 10 said his handling of the cost of living was worse than they expected.

But some polling suggests Vance — who opposed the Iran war at the start — has a more favorable rating than Trump.

Last month, a Marquette Law School poll of registered voters in Wisconsin found that 43 percent viewed the vice president favorably, compared to 38 percent who viewed Trump favorably.

Republicans acknowledge that Vance faces a tough road ahead if he is vying for a White House run on the heels of a tumultuous couple of years.

“He is in an unenviable position, especially if we lose the way many are expecting in November,” said one Republican strategist who asked for anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s going to be tough for him to distance himself from anything the administration has done. And the second he begins attacking Trump, he has lost his endorsement and he knows it.”

“And everyone knows Trump’s endorsement still carries a lot of weight,” the strategist added.

A former Trump campaign aide agreed, saying as of now Vance has the support of the president’s network behind him.

“He has the support of Trumpworld, and likely access to Trump’s resources,” the former aide said. “Right now, no one else can say that.”

But the former aide and the GOP strategist acknowledged the administration’s policies do open the doors for other potential candidates, like Cruz, who can distance themselves appropriately.

“I think that’s why you’re starting to see the attacks coming in hot,” the strategist said. “And if we lose, it’s going to get ugly pretty quickly, and I think some other folks might be revving up to enter if that happens.”

Rubio is frequently mentioned as a leading contender for 2028 but has sought to avoid some of the turmoil enveloping the Trump administration. While other Republicans — including many Cabinet secretaries — gathered last month at a GOP convention in Dallas, for example, Rubio traveled on a diplomatic trip to Colombia.

During those travels, he was asked by a reporter if he was one of the most formidable candidates on the Republican side for 2028

“Well, I don’t know what the future holds, but I have no plans at this time,” Rubio said, according to The Wall Street Journal. “I’m 100 percent focused on my jobs.”

One strategist who is hoping for a Rubio candidacy told The Hill that the secretary of State has been telling donors that he’s not running.

Del Percio predicted that the fights will only get bigger if Republicans lose control of the Senate — especially in Cruz’s home state of Texas, where the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is facing off against Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico for a Senate seat.

“If Paxton loses, Cruz will go after Vance even more,” she said.

“If nothing else, you ding Vance up a little,” she added. “Because it seems like Vance has gotten one of the main characteristics of his boss down pat, and that is a thin skin.”