South Carolina Senate race deadlocked: Survey

Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) and Democratic Senate hopeful Annie Andrews are deadlocked in the Palmetto State race with less than a week before Election Day, according to a new survey.

The New York Times/Siena University poll , released Wednesday, shows both candidates with 48 percent support among likely voters in South Carolina — which has not elected a Democrat to the upper chamber of Congress since 1998.

Among those surveyed, 73 percent said they were “almost certain” or at least somewhat likely to vote next Tuesday. Another 22 percent said they voted early. Meanwhile, 3 percent said they were less likely or not at all likely to cast a ballot, while 2 percent were unsure or did not answer the question.

When asked if they were more likely to back a Democrat or Republican if the election were held today, 43 percent of respondents said Democrat while 51 percent said the GOP candidate, the survey found. The remaining 6 percent said they would choose another candidate or were unsure.

In recent weeks, Republicans have increased their spending to more than $20 million to back Graham in the high-stakes race to succeed her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), after his sudden death , according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

The incumbent, who was appointed to finish her brother’s term, has struggled to raise money throughout the campaign, and her support has come mainly from outside Republicans. Federal Election Commission filings show Darline Graham raised just $1.2 million as of Oct. 14, compared with Andrews’s $23.8 million.

President Trump has visited the state to boost support, most recently last week, and the Republican National Committee announced the president will return to the state on Thursday, just a few days ahead of the midterms.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who ran against Graham in the special primary, said last week that while he would keep his promise to vote for Graham, his family would not be supporting her.

“I would not do an event with her, and I made that pretty clear,” Norman said during a radio interview. “When I conceded the race, I called her and congratulated her, but that’s the only time I’ve spoken with her.”

Democrats have been burned before in South Carolina, namely in the 2020 Senate race, where polls suggested a close contest between Lindsey Graham and former Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison (D). Harrison went on to lose by 10 points.

The close race is just one battle the GOP is fighting as it struggles to maintain its Senate majority.

According to nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, the likeliest flips for Democrats in the Senate are North Carolina, Alaska, Texas and Ohio — amounting to the four seats they need to take back control of the chamber.

The party also has a greater than 40 percent chance in Iowa and Maine, and a greater than 30 percent chance in South Carolina and Kansas. DDHQ gives Darline Graham a 67 percent chance to win.

The Times/Siena poll was conducted Oct. 19-26 among 707 voters in South Carolina. The margin of error is 4.3 percentage points.