On the Ballot: The state of the states: Which states are most likely to see trifectas in November

While much of the national focus this cycle has been centered on the competitive Senate and House races that will determine which parties control Congress, there’s plenty of reasons why folks should also be turning their attention to state Capitols and gubernatorial elections next month.

State legislative races used to be sleepier affairs, but they’ve grown in importance over the last 15 years, in particular, as both parties have started to invest more in the downballotelections. For one, local lawmakers pass laws that often impact constituents’ lives more directly and immediately than at the federal level.

Growing attention has also been placed on state Capitols and state Supreme Courts as local lawmakers and judges have been increasingly caught in the crosshairs on issues that have bubbled up at the national level – redistricting, abortion access, school choice and election disputes and law changes, among others.

State legislatures are also important to keep track of because they serve as incubators fordifferent issues and trends that can later catch attention at the national level.

Right now, Republicans hold more state trifectas (meaning a single party controls both legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion) – 23 – compared to Democrats’ 16. The remaining 11 states have divided government.

Trifectas give the parties tighter reigns on state power; the trifectas created after this November will give either party more authority to weigh in on upcoming consequential issues like data center and artificial intelligence (AI) regulations and open the door to more potential mid-dedicating redistricting.

Given the political environment this cycle, Democrats are projected to have a good cycle in state legislative chambers. But how good is another question.

“Even if we call this like a neutral environment, then I would still put Democrats as plus one because I would assume that Republicans would flip Kansas back because of the governor’s race, and I would assume that the Democrats would win Michigan and Minnesota trifectas,” Bill Kramer, vice president and counsel of state and local government relations firm MultiState, told On The Ballot.

Here’s a look at which states are most likely to see trifectas this fall:

If there’s one state that’s likely to become a trifecta this cycle, it’s the North Star State. Democrats already control the governor’s mansion and narrowly hold the state Senate.

Meanwhile, the state House is essentially tied between the two parties: Democrats hold 67 seats, Republicans hold 66 seats and there’s one vacancy that was left open by former GOP state Rep. Joe Schomacker.

After the 2024 elections, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party and Republicans settled on a power-sharing agreement that allowed Republican Lisa Demuth to become House Speaker while nearly every committee would have co-chairs from each party.

The DFL was buoyed earlier this year by the fact that it swapped out its gubernatorial nominee. Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) initially signaled he would run for another term but growing scrutiny around a statewide fraud scandal led him to backtrack. Recent polling suggests Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic nominee, will defeat Demuth, the GOP nominee, by between single and double digits.

“In Minnesota, the Democrats only need to net one seat [in] the state House to get it because the governor’s race [is] pretty much safe Democratic” with Klobuchar at the top of the ticket, explained Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate.

While Republicans have homed in on the statewide fraud scandal to put Democrats on defense, the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown – including two shootings in the state that involved U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) — threatens to stymiepotential gains.

State Navigate forecasts a 96 percent chance that the state sees a Democratic trifecta.

Kansas offers a rare bright spot for the GOP, who are likely to see a trifecta in the Sunflower State as the GOP holds both legislative chambers and Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is set to retire after this year.

Republicans hold comfortable majorities in each chamber: They hold a 31-9 edge in the state Senate and an 88-37 edge in the state House, according to Ballotpedia .

Kansas Sen. Cindy Holscher (D) is running against state Senate President Ty Masterson (R) to be the state’s next top executive, with recent polling showing the Republican up by 5 points, more or less.

Democrats face more headwinds here given Kansas went for Trump by 16 points in 2024, though the Sunflower State has shown more willingness to elect Democratic governors than Democratic senators in recent years.

While there is a competitive Senate race playing out between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and Democrat Adam Hamilton, experts note that voters weigh statewide and federal races differently. Federal races are usually tied to the national party while gubernatorial races can see more split-ticketing because the race is inherently more personal to the voter.

But experts also note that the coalitions needed to win statewide versus downballotare different, too.

The voters that “matter to us may be … a slightly different version of Democrats than maybe sort of a tier one target of a different race,” explained Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC).

State Navigate forecasts a nearly 80 percent chance that the GOP holds a trifecta in Kansas.

Democrats are also in a good position to gain a trifecta in the Great Lakes State where the state has a Democratic governor and the party holds the state Senate by a narrow 20-18 margin. Meanwhile, Republicans hold a 58-52 edge in the lower chamber.

Recent polling projects Democrat Jocelyn Benson will likely win the Michigan governor’s race next month against Republican John James, putting more of the focus on the legislative chambers. This state Capitol is particularly interesting given Trump won Michigan in 2024.

“Minnesota and Michigan are the the two clearest paths for Democrats right now because they literally had trifectas there a cycle ago,” explained Kramer.

While Kansas remains a likely bright spot for the GOP, Republicans have been clear-eyed that they face a tough election cycle in state Capitols.

“Our focus has been on making strategic investments that will give Republicans a chance to overcome historical headwinds and hold as many majorities as possible this fall,” Edith Jorge-Tuñón, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), told The Hill in a statement.

State Navigate forecasts a 77 percent chance that Michigan sees a Democratic trifecta.

What about Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona?

Three additional states to watch in November include the Badger State, the Keystone State and the Grand Canyon State for potential trifectas. All three states have Democratic governors, but only one, Pennsylvania, has divided control of the state legislature.

Wisconsin and Arizona, on the other hand, both have GOP-controlled state legislatures. So why are experts so interested in these three states?

In Wisconsin, a decision by the state Supreme Court’s liberal majority paved the way for new state legislative maps to drawnand made more competitive, giving Democrats an opportunity to compete more broadly across the state legislative map.

Democrats are bullish about flipping the state Senate, which has a GOP edge of 18-15, though they face a taller task in flipping the state Assembly, which has a 54-45 GOP tilt. Another unsure variable is the governor’s race between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany.

Recent public polling has largely been minimal, though a Marquette Law School Poll conducted last month had Crowley up by a narrow 3 points.

State Navigate forecasts a 49 percent chance that the state sees a Democratic trifecta.

Arizona is another state that observers are closely watching. Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is running for reelection against Republican Andy Biggs.

Republicans “have a very poor candidate there in the governor race, and … in 2022, another thing was just that the Democrats kind of underplayed their hands in the seats that they were playing in,” Nuttycombe said.

Adding in the fact that Latino voters look poised to swing back toward Democrats, it’s altogether “hurting Republicans’ odds of preventing a Democratic trifecta,” he added.

Kramer notes that Arizona has been Democrats’ figurative “Lucy and the football” as the party hastried multiple times to win one or both chambers and with no luck.

State Navigate forecasts a 73 percent chance that Arizona sees a blue trifecta.

A third state worth paying attention to here is Pennsylvania. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), seen as a likely 2028 candidate, is all but expected to win reelection in November and Democrats hold a narrow 103-100 edge in the state House while Republicans maintain a 27-23 edge in the state Senate.

“The Republicans have a lot of strong state Senate incumbents in there,” Nuttycombe, said, who also added that “Pennsylvania is one of the biggest states for ticket-splitting in the country on the state level.”

State Navigate forecasts a 48 percent chance Pennsylvania sees a Democratic trifecta.

Welcome to The Hill’s On The Ballot. We’re Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil — reach out to us on X ( @jmthewriter + @CarolineVakil) or via email ( jmueller@thehill.com + cvakil@thehill.com.)

The spending and fundraising moves on our watch:

Democrat GinaHinojosa is gaining on Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in the race for the ruby-red state’s governor’s mansion, and national eyes are taking notice.

The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) has committed $1 million to support Hinojosa’s bid, and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker plans to give another $1 million after donating $200,000 in the last filing period.

“The DGA is proud of our latest investment in Gina Hinojosa’s campaign as we keep expanding the map. We’re also excited about Governor Pritzker’s continued support. There’s no doubt Gina has the momentum in this increasingly competitive race,” said DGA Executive Director Meghan Meehan-Draper.

Abbott is eyeing an unprecedented fourth term leading the Lone Star State, and he’s long had the midterm advantage. The seat hasn’t been blue since 1994, and Democrats have struggled for decades to notch any statewide win.

But a handful of recent polls put Hinojosa ahead of the incumbent. Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages of the race now show the Democrat less than two points behind, and Cook Political Report shifted it from a “likely” to “lean” Republican rating last week, a step away from “toss-up” territory.

The tightened race comes against the backdrop of a highly competitive Senate race that’s bolstered Texas Democrats’ hopes of midterm gains up and down the ballot.

Trump stopped in San Antonio on Wednesday to stump for Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and others, a signal to some that Republicans are increasingly worried about their chances in the red stronghold. Abbott skipped the rally, citing scheduling conflicts.

Amid Trump’s low approval ratings, though, some have questioned how much the president’s appearance on the campaign trail could help vulnerable candidates. In a string of leaked audio from a closed-door meeting with donors, Paxton has said that Trump’s tariffs and Iran war are a drag on his campaign and that Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas last month “dropped our numbers.”

Hinojosa has called repeatedly for a debate as Election Day approaches, but Abbott’s campaign has yet to confirm. The early voting in the Lone Star State starts in less than two weeks.

Fetterman more popular with Pennsylvania Republicans than Democrats: Poll. Read more from The Hill’s Mira Bhakta.

Democrat launches ad featuring Moreno ripping GOP’s Miller over daughter’s blue bunny. Read more first in The Hill from Sudiksha Kochi .

Here are the Republicans backing Democrats in the midterms, The Hill’s Ryan J. Karlin reports.

As the midterm cycle heats up, we’re asking folks in the elections space what they’re consuming on and off the campaign trail.

Dan Osborn is running to oust Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) in Nebraska. An independent, he came within 7 percentage points of Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in the 2024 cycle. Nebraska Democrats’ 2026 nominee dropped out of the race to clear Osborn’s path, but he’s promised not to caucus with either party if elected in November. Osborn is a labor union leader and military veteran.

A People’s History of the United States by Howard Zinn

What album or podcast do you have on repeat?

Been listening to a lot of Hardy and Ren lately

What TV show are you watching right now?

October baseball right now but otherwise I’ll have Trailer Park Boys on

What’s your go-to restaurant in your state?

Gotta go with Warren Buffett on this one and say Gorat’s

Hochul holds double-digit lead for New York governor, new poll finds

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), is leading her Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by double digits in the Empire State’s gubernatorial race, according to a new poll.

In the Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News poll, 52.4 percent of respondents said they would cast their ballot for Hochul, while 39.7 percent said the same of Blakeman. Nearly 8 percent of respondents were unsure on their vote.

Oct. 8: WOOD TV hosts Michigan Senate debate at 7 p.m. EDT. Tune into The HIll’s live coverage .

Oct. 8: Atlanta News First hosts Georgia Senate debate at 7 p.m. EDT

Oct. 8: WMTW holds Michigan Senate debate at 8 p.m. EDT

Oct. 9: President Trump rallies for midterms in Syracuse, N.Y.

Oct. 9: Vice President Vance holds election rally in Lima, Ohio

Oct. 10-11: Sen. Bernie Sanders rallies for Maine Senate candidate Troy Jackson in Bangor, Lewiston and Biddeford

Oct. 11: WCSC holds South Carolina Senate debate at 7 PM ET

Oct. 13: WPBF hosts Florida Senate debate at 7 p.m. EDT

Oct. 13: WABI & WAGM hold Maine Senate debate at 7 p.m. EDT

Oct. 13: Atlanta Press Club hosts Georgia Senate debate at 8 p.m. EDT

Oct. 13: KCAU hosts Iowa Senate debate at 10 p.m. EDT

Oct. 14: CNN and Jubilee Media hold Texas Senate forum with James Talarico at 8 p.m. EDT

Oct: 14: AARP hosts Alaska Senate debate at 10 p.m. EDT

Oct. 14: WPIX holds New York’s 17 th District debate at 7 p.m. EDT

Oct. 14: WHTM hosts Pennsylvania’s 10 th District at 7 p.m. EDT

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What to expect at the polling place amid uncertainty over federal agents ( Votebeat)

The inescapable Hasan Piker ( New York Magazine) ‘

How megapastor Adam Hamilton could break the GOP’s hold on Kansas ( Religious News Service )

Trump officials ramp up investigations into voter registration groups ( The New York Times )