Ranking the Democratic 2028 presidential contenders

Democrats are already looking beyond November’s midterms to the 2028 presidential contest — and they like what they see.

For now, Republicans are weighed down by President Trump’s low approval ratings and broader voter concerns about the economy.

Democrats guess whoever becomes the GOP nominee in 2028 will suffer from the president’s liabilities without being able to replicate his visceral connection to the MAGA base.

There is no runaway contender for the Democratic nomination, however. That’s a factor encouraging numerous potential contenders to think about a run.

It could be a large field in 2028, and there are a number of credible candidates who could top any list of contenders at this early stage.

The notion of a successful bid for the nomination from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) becomes more real by the day.

Ideological opponents often disparage the chances of a 36-year-old, leftist Latina from New York becoming a winning candidate nationwide.

But that underestimates the panoply of political strengths that AOC, as she is widely known, brings.

She is far and away the most charismatic candidate of the left, which is enjoying a surge of momentum within the Democratic Party.

Her capacity to connect with voters in unusual ways has been shown yet again in recent weeks, especially through her regular video updates about her decision to begin freezing her eggs.

Ocasio-Cortez, a far more astute strategist than she is often given credit for, is plainly positioning herself for a bid.

Her blithe dismissal of “woke 1” as “crazy” during an ABC News interview last month seemed designed to inoculate her from criticism about the perceived excesses of that agenda.

She is shaking up her team , with the departure of her longtime campaign manager.

And even small habits, like her propensity to take random on-camera questions from reporters as she walks near the steps of the Capitol, keep her central to the conversation.

It’s still quite possible that Ocasio-Cortez chooses to stay in the House or challenges Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in a primary rather than seek the White House.

But if she runs, it will be a real struggle for anyone to beat her in a Democratic primary.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is Ocasio-Cortez’s most obvious competitor for front-runner status.

The governor of the nation’s most populous state has been open about his interest in seeking the top office.

He has battled Trump both in public remarks and in regular jabs on social media.

On a more substantive level, California has been in the vanguard of attempts by Democratic states to stymie Trump’s agenda in the courts.

Newsom also appears to be doing his best to shake off the idea that he is a “coastal elite” figure who is ill-equipped to connect with a broader public.

He is on a tour of Southern states this week. A memoir earlier this year saw him write about his early troubles with dyslexia and an upbringing that was split between a wealthy father and a mother who struggled financially.

The California governor would have no problem raising the money to support a presidential bid.

There are, to be sure, enduring concerns about Newsom’s ability to win in the heartlands.

But right now, he and Ocasio-Cortez feel like they have a jump on the rest of the field.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.) is the breakout star of this midterm cycle for Democrats.

He was once thought to be in real danger of losing his reelection fight in Georgia, a state that Trump won in 2024.

Instead, Ossoff is now a strong favorite over GOP challenger Rep. Mike Collins (Ga.). The last two major polls of the race have put him up by 8 points and 9 points.

But it’s not only Ossoff’s chances of reelection that commend him to Democrats.

He has become a national star in part because of slickly filmed campaign videos that have often gone viral. Fans see tonal echoes of former President Obama in the senator’s penchant for rhetoric that is simultaneously elevated and pugnacious.

A recent reference to White House aide Natalie Harp and her closeness to Trump was controversial in some quarters but delighted the most fervent members of the Democratic base.

Skeptics argue that Ossoff’s appeal is too reliant on slick packaging and wonder how he would stand up to the intense spotlight of a presidential campaign.

But there’s no question that he would be a serious contender if he ran.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is in an odd spot.

The trauma Democrats feel about her loss to Trump in 2024 may militate against them nominating her again. Her argument — in essence, that her campaign did not have enough time after then-President Biden dramatically dropped out of the race — is questionable at best.

Still, Harris leads almost every early poll of the 2028 field. Is that simply a function of name recognition, as her detractors would say, or evidence that she is held in higher regard by actual Democratic voters than she is among the pundit class?

This past week, Harris was measured about Democratic midterm candidates in competitive races who seemingly want to keep their distance from her.

She said in a phone interview with MS NOW that she would campaign where “helpful” but was also understanding about candidates “doing whatever they need to do to win.”

Harris has another big asset. She is already a history-making figure, as the first Black woman and first person of South Asian heritage to be either vice president or the nominee of a major party.

If she runs again, she would start with real strength among Black voters, who are critical in any Democratic contest.

It doesn’t hurt her chances that the first primary will be in South Carolina, either.

5. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg

Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg outperformed expectations back in the 2020 primaries, especially for someone whose only office at that time was as the former Mayor of South Bend, Ind.

Buttigieg, a graduate of Harvard and a former Rhodes scholar who speaks eight languages, has intellectual firepower to burn. He often puts it to use in interviews with media outlets that are not known to be friendly toward Democrats.

But there can sometimes be questions around what Buttigieg’s core beliefs actually are. He also struggled badly with Black voters in 2020, which is a weakness that would need to be remedied if he is to have any real shot at the nomination.

llinois Gov. JB Pritzker has emerged as one of the most aggressive critics of Trump among front-line Democrats.

Earlier this week, this approach even found expression in opposition to Trump traveling to Illinois for a golf tournament later this month.

“He is neither wanted here nor needed here,” Pritzker said in a statement, which also asserted that if Trump insisted on coming he should “explain to Illinoisans why his tariffs have made groceries, electricity, and everything else too damned expensive.”

The billionaire Pritzker would have no problem self-funding a campaign. He has all the toughness for which Chicago politics is legendary.

The question is how he can outflank the people higher on this list.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s appeal is fairly obvious. He is a popular governor of a state that is crucial in the Electoral College. He is expected to coast to reelection in November, leading by double-digits in some polls.

The governor’s appeal in Pennsylvania could plausibly be replicated in other battlegrounds deeper into the Midwest, notably Wisconsin and Michigan.

Shapiro would be well-positioned to try to secure the support of more centrist Democrats. His political identity stands in clear contrast to the more progressive wing.

That being said, this same dynamic has its downside — especially with regard to Israel.

Shapiro’s 2024 comparison of pro-Palestinian demonstrators to the Ku Klux Klan still rankles the left.

More broadly, the vigor of his support for Israel looks increasingly incongruous in a party that has come to view the issue of Israel, Gaza and the Palestinians as a kind of moral litmus test.

Much of the conjecture around 2028 Democrats is premised on the idea that Ocasio-Cortez is more likely to run than not.

If she takes a pass, a lot changes. More running room would immediately open up for other candidates on the left.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who said last month he is “kicking the tires” on a 2028 campaign, could be a bigger beneficiary than some other leftist contenders such as Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).

Van Hollen arguably has greater mainstream appeal and is less identified with the harder edges of the left. At the same time, he has real appeal to progressives.

The Maryland senator’s potential appeal was summed up in a recent remark on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” when he said he would not reject an endorsement from people connected to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) but swiftly added , “but I’m certainly not seeking the endorsement from the DSA.”

Rahm Emanuel has been hitting the media trail hard in recent months.

In the process, he has lamented that his party’s brand has become “toxic” and is seen by too many voters as “weak” and “woke.”

He says Democrats need to spend less time talking about “bathrooms and locker rooms” — in other words, about the battle over trans rights.

That may or may not be true as a raw political calculation.

But it’s uncertain whether today’s Democratic Party wants someone as its standard-bearer who first became nationally prominent during the Clinton presidency — and who shares much of the 42nd president’s instinct for “third way” triangulation.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) is a very effective communicator, including on social media.

It’s possible that if Democrats wanted a nominee with the ability to speak to both the left and the center-left, he could be in with a shot.

This week, as he did his annual “walk across Connecticut,” he told The Washington Post that Democrats need to be “telling the true story about the way that the economy is losing to benefit the very, very rich and the corporations.”

Murphy would face real challenges in picking his way through a crowded field to become a real contender, however.

Also in the mix: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.). Two Democratic governors who have indicated they will not run — Wes Moore of Maryland and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan — would be plausible candidates if they reconsidered.