Democrat Flanagan leads in Minnesota Senate race by double digits: Poll

Democrat Peggy Flanagan is leading in the Minnesota Senate race against GOP competitor Michele Tafoya, according to a new poll.

In The New York Times/Siena University poll , 54 percent of respondents said they were more likely to cast their ballot for Flanagan if Election Day were that day, while 40 percent said the same for Tafoya. Less than half a percent chose another candidate, and 5 percent were unsure of their choice or gave no answer.

The double-digit gap between Flanagan and Tafoya is notable, as the Minnesota lieutenant governor was recently holding a slim lead over the former NFL reporter. And nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted the race toward the Republicans, from “likely” to “lean” Democrat, just a short time ago.

In a polling average from Decision Desk HQ, Flanagan was leading Tafoya 47.4 percent to 43.8 percent on Wednesday morning .

The current political environment in the 2026 election cycle is appearing to favor Democrats, due to factors including the unpopular war in Iran, President Trump’s slumping approval rating and concerns about the cost of living.

Amid the war in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the oil industry, has been closed, driving up energy prices. In Minnesota, the average price for a gallon of regular gas in the state on Wednesday morning was about $4.17, up from about $2.90 at the same time last year, according to AAA.

In the Times/Siena Minnesota poll, 35 percent of respondents said they “strongly approve” or “somewhat approve” of Trump’s job performance, while 62 percent said they “somewhat disapprove” or “strongly disapprove” of how the president is handling his job. Three percent were unsure about Trump’s job performance or did not respond.

The Times/Siena poll took place from Oct. 19-26, featuring 752 Minnesota voters and 4.1 percentage points as its margin of sampling error.