Midterm temperature check 30 days out, with DDHQ

Sunday marked 30 days until Election Day. Democrats are favored to win the House and have a slight edge in the Senate, according to The Hill’s partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), which puts the party’s chances at 75 percent in the lower chamber and 54 percent in the upper chamber.

Democrats’ prospects have improved in recent weeks, despite a Senate map heavily stacked against them. A month ago, DDHQ gave the party a 49 percent chance of retaking the Senate and a 67 percent chance of winning back the House.

The generic congressional ballot and President Trump ’s overall approval rating can offer clues about how the parties will fare in the midterms, DDHQ’s chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley told Morning Report. Both indicators have shifted in Democrats’ favor and “haven’t really trended back in any notable way.”

“That’s the big question over the last month here: is if Republicans can do anything to stem the tide of that — bring margins on the generic ballot back a little bit, see Trump’s approval rating increase just a tad,” Skelley said. “Any of that would be, I think, helpful to the GOP.”

When it comes to the Senate, he added, “That’s pretty much a coin flip.”

Across the million simulations in DDHQ’s forecast, Democrats win an average of 51 Senate seats and 234 House seats, representing net gains of four seats in the Senate and 19 seats in the House.

The outcomes in the two chambers are closely linked. A favorable environment for one party can boost its candidates in across the country. DDHQ gives Democrats a 52 percent chance of winning both chambers, while Republicans have a 23 percent chance of holding both. There’s a 1 in 4 chance of split control.

Even with a favorable political environment, Democrats face a steeper climb to a majority in the Senate than in the House.

Democrats need to hold all their current seats and flip another four to win control of the chamber. That means Michigan, where Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is running to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), is a must-hold for the party.

El-Sayed has a 71 percent chance of defeating former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), “ but that leaves a very realistic possibility for Mike Rogers to win in the end ,” Skelley said. “So the kind of lead El-Sayed has is far from safe.”

Democrats’ most likely path involves flipping North Carolina — where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has an 82 percent chance of winning — and then to win another three of five other highly competitive races.

DDHQ puts Democratic chances of flipping Alaska at 61 percent, Texas at 55 percent, Ohio at 53 percent, Maine at 50 percent and Iowa at 47 percent.

Skelley said Texas is particularly worth watching because Democratic nominee James Talarico is polling better than Beto O’Rourke did at this point in 2018, when Democrats last thought they had a real shot at flipping a Senate seat in the state.

Republicans hold a significant fundraising advantage over Democrats, though, and it remains to be seen how that spending advantage will shape Talarico’s race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton .

Democrats need to net just three seats to reach a 218-seat majority in the House.

Results in certain districts could offer early indicators of the broader electoral outcomes, Skelley said, pointing to Florida as a state that tends to count votes quickly.

He said he will be watching Florida’s 14th and 25th congressional districts, where Democratic Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz , respectively, are running for reelection in redrawn districts where majorities voted for Trump in 2024.

If both win reelection, DDHQ puts the probability of Democrats flipping the House at 95 percent. If Republicans win both seats, the GOP’s chances of maintaining control of the lower chamber increase to 67 percent.

In Virginia, a rematch between former Rep. Elaine Luria (D) and incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) could be a key test of Democratic momentum. If Luria unseats Kiggans, DDHQ gives Democrats an 84 percent chance of flipping the chamber. If Kiggans wins, Republicans have a 61 percent chance of keeping control.

Next door in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, GOP Rep. Rob Wittman is another incumbent to watch. Skelley noted his district is one of the few that shifted to the left in 2024, when most of the country moved to the right, and that Wittman has a history of outperforming the top of the ticket.

“He ran well ahead of Trump in 2024, but if he is in danger of losing on election night, that’s when you know that the national trends have really trumped that local strength, candidate strength, that he has shown previously,” Skelley said.

Preparing for victory: The Hill’s main man in the House, Mike Lillis, takes a deep dive on how Democrats are preparing to fight Trump if he attempts to use federal powers to interfere with election outcomes.

“I take seriously that Trump will reject the results if it’s not [in his favor],” Rep. Bennie Thompson (Miss.), told Lillis for the story, which is available only to Insiders .

The president is heading to Nebraska to rally for incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts. The Republican faces a tight race against Dan Osborn, an independent backed by Democrats. Trump’s visit to Grand Island, Neb., on Monday will mark his latest stop in a campaign tour that has hit a surprising number of red states.

All 12 B-1 bombers stationed at the RAF Fairford air base in Gloucestershire, U.K., returned to their home stations Sunday. The Pentagon did not specify the reason behind the decision, but it comes days after an alleged terror threat against the base. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said Wednesday that he believed Iran “played a part” in the foiled attack.

The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded on Monday to three scientists — Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagelfor — for pioneering the field of optogenetics, research into brain circuitry that helped advance treatment of conditions including blindness, depression, addiction and dementia.

An official voting center sign stands outside of a polling location on May 26, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Gabriela Passos)

LATINO SWING: A new poll shows that Trump’s support among Hispanic voters has plummeted since the 2024 election. The NBC News/Telemundo survey found that 27 percent of respondents approved of the president and 69 percent disapproved.

And nearly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of border security, while almost 7 in 10 said they disapproved of how he has handled immigration and foreign policy.

“Frankly, it’s the hardest job that I’ve had,” Trump said Wednesday regarding immigration enforcement. “They’ll say you’re too tough or you’re too soft. Get tougher, get softer. No matter what you do, it’s always tough.”

Almost three-fourths of respondents disapproved of how he has handled the economy, and 78 percent said they disapproved of how he has handled the cost of living.

Annual inflation rose from 3 percent in January to 3.4 percent as of last month, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Trump campaigned in 2024 on a platform of affordability and lowering prices, after inflation reached a 40-year high under former President Biden .

Democrats held a 24-point edge over Republicans regarding which party Latino voters want to see control Congress after the midterm elections.

▪ The Hill : Trump’s 2024 support from Hispanic voters dips in new poll

“PARTISAN POLLSTERS:” Kevin Hassett , who heads the National Economic Council, dismissed recent polling showing Americans’ concerns about the economy.

“Ahead of an election cycle, the fact that there’s, you know, possibly partisan pollsters telling us that the people are really, really depressed, it’s a classic Democrat move, and I just don’t buy it,” he told CNN’s Jake Tapper during his “State of the Union” interview Sunday.

An Associated Press/NORC survey found that 73 percent of American adults disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, and 65 percent directly blame Trump’s policies for higher prices.

A Quinnipiac University poll saw 62 percent of respondents critical of the president’s economy.

Hassett, however, says he doesn’t see the criticisms playing out in the real world.

“Because if it were true, if the polls were any value for thinking about what’s going on with consumers, then we should look at the consumption data and say, ‘Jeez, yeah, that’s right. People aren’t spending.’ But, in fact, the retailers are doing well,” he said.

▪ CNN : Hassett defends Trump economy despite voter concerns on inflation

JUDICIAL BLINDERS: Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito said Sunday he avoids giving attention to the president’s praise and likewise ignores Trump’s criticisms toward his peers.

“I put all of that out of my mind. I trust that my colleagues put all of that out of their minds,” he told “Fox News Sunday” host Shannon Bream .

Alito also warned about the “escalation in public rhetoric in general and about the things that people in important positions say about the Supreme Court as a whole and about individual justices,” adding that such commentary can damage Americans’ trust in the country’s highest court.

Alito was also interviewed on CBS over the weekend, as part of a publicity tour for his new book, “So Ordered: An Originalist’s View of the Constitution, the Court and Our Country.”

The appearances follow Trump’s recent comments in an interview with Time Magazine and on Truth Social where he expressed regret for his nominations of Justices Amy Coney Barrett , Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh .

“These are not the people I interviewed to serve on the United States Supreme Court, they are merely a shell of their original selves,” the president wrote on social media last month, while referring to Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas as “legends.”

The Supreme Court has ruled against Trump’s wishes on a number of issues, including his mail-in voting plan and his executive order ending birthright citizenship .

▪ The Hill : Samuel Alito addresses Trump’s comments about him and fellow Supreme Court justices

INITIAL COUNT: Thomas Giuffra, a lawyer for a former Cornell University student who alleges that she was gang raped at the Chi Phi fraternity house in 2024, said he believes there were more than seven men who participated in the alleged assault of his client, referred to as Jane Doe.

“I’m not even sure we have everybody who participated in this assault because my client was blacked out during periods of time, and that’s reported in these statements. We don’t even know the people we have are the people we definitively know,” Giuffra told Tapper during an interview on “State of the Union” Sunday.

“If you ask me, I believe there were more,” he added.

The accused men were all in the fraternity Chi Phi. An alleged screenshot from the night shows a man telling other members that there was “free p—- upstairs.”

The case has also drawn bipartisan support in Congress for stronger protections for sexual violence survivors, The Hill’s Sudiksha Kochi reports .

This past week, the Education Department announced it had formally rescinded the Biden-era Title IX interpretation that gave sex-based discrimination protections to students on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity.

Critics argue the move weakens protections for sexual assault victims.

▪ The Hill : Jane Doe’s lawyer believes more than seven men were involved in Cornell gang rape

▪ The Hill : Cornell allegations fuel bipartisan push for stronger sexual assault protections

The House is holding a pro forma session at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

The Senate is holding a pro forma session at 4:00 p.m. EDT.

Pumpjacks operate in a pasture on Sept. 30, 2024, near Hays, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

FOSSIL FUEL FURY: The Supreme Court on Monday will hear a case that will determine the future of state and local efforts to recover damages from fossil fuel companies’ role in global warming, The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports .

The case, Suncor v. Boulder, allowed climate change claims brought by the city and county of Boulder against oil companies to proceed. The justices’ decision could set a precedent to toss other cases around the nation.

Suncor Energy and ExxonMobile asked the Supreme Court to reverse the decision initially made by the Colorado Supreme Court, arguing that federal law preempts state-level cases.

“There is no constitutional bar to states addressing in-state harms caused by out-of-state conduct, be it the negligent design of an automobile or sale of asbestos,” said a brief from the city and county.

“What’s at stake is the future of litigation seeking money damages from fossil fuel companies over climate change, ” said Michael Gerrard , faculty director of Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

If that happens, localities won’t be able to collect funds from climate change contributors and will have to find another way to pay for damages caused by rising sea levels, floods and wildfires.

Gerrard said there are roughly two dozen cases underway.

If these climate lawsuits are successful, it would mean “massive damages that would be very difficult for the companies to pay,” he added.

When the Supreme Court agreed to take up the case this year, justices raised questions about their authority to hear it. If the court rules it can’t, it’s a “punt” and could return at a later date.

Alitorecused himself from the case, as he has financial holdings in other oil companies.

The Trump administration has sided with the oil companies.

▪ The Hill : Supreme Court to hear case Monday on if localities can sue oil companies for climate damages.

▪ The Washington Post : Should Big Oil pay for climate change? A Supreme Court case will help decide.

An apartment is seen burned out following a Russian drone strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

COMING ESCALATION: Moscow announced Sunday that it would ramp up strikes against key military facilities across Ukraine, following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ’s recent threats to target Russian oil refineries.

“Strikes by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation against military and military-industrial facilities, as well as related infrastructure in Kyiv and other regions of Ukraine, will be intensified,” the Russian Defense Ministry wrote on Telegram.

Moscow added that Zelensky “bears full personal and political responsibility for this” and that Ukrainians should “ blame” their president.

The Telegram statement comes following Zelensky’s interview Saturday with Reuters, where he told the outlet that “with their attacks on our energy, we have to respond on their energy. First of all, oil refiners: what gives money to them for this war.”

The Russian-Ukraine war, which is well into its fourth year, has taken a toll on the global economy and Trump has blamed Kyiv’s newest strategy targeting refineries for rising diesel prices, which reached record highs last month.

“There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel, because that’s hurting, that’s hurting the world,” Trump said in September.

Zelensky has said that Ukrainian lives are more important that the cost of energy supplies.

As The Hill’s Julia Manchester reported late last month , rising diesel prices are proving to be a particular problem for Republicans weeks out from the midterms.

That has prompted a growing number of Republicans to take a rare stand against the president, calling for the Iran war to end and for extraordinary measures to lower diesel costs.

▪ Al Jazeera : Russia hits Kyiv bridge as Germany’s Merz visits Ukraine’s capital.

Iran did not collapse after Khamenei — it just became harder to read , Charbel A. Antoun writes in The Hill.

Where did the independent leaders go? Joseph Epstein writes in the Wall Street Journal.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) during the Senate Judiciary Committee business meeting to consider the nomination of Todd Blanche to be Attorney General at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, August 4, 2026.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is feeling fit at 66.

The co-leader of the Senate’s “YOLO caucus,” now in his final weeks in office, was profiled by CBS’s “60 Minutes” in its episode on Sunday.

While waiting with correspondent Ross Douthat for the Capitol subway, Tillis dares him to jump across the tracks. After Douthat lands successfully on the other side, Tillis repeats the feat.

“In the second Trump administration, though, there’s been too little legislative work for an energetic senator,” the correspondent says.