5 potential midterm Senate upsets

Senate races are tightening in the closing days of the midterm cycle, expanding the battleground map and fueling both parties’ dreams of game-changing pickups.

A handful of tight Senate races are soaking up the spotlight: Ohio, Iowa and Kansas are toss-ups in the latest ratings from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), The Hill’s partner, while Texas, Maine and Alaska edged out of the coin-toss column as of Monday.

But there are more possible flips on the table for both parties as support consolidates in the homestretch. As of Monday, 15 states were in the “lean” or “likely” categories under DDHQ’s forecast, giving both parties a fighting chance in the fight for Senate control.

Here’s a look at five potential upsets that could offer Election Day surprises:

Republicans have found themselves on defense in South Carolina, scrambling to protect the Senate seat that the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) held for more than 20 years.

Lindsey Graham’s sister, Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.), was appointed to fill the vacancy after his unexpected death earlier this year. With President Trump’s support, she jumped into the race for a full term and emerged from a tough primary runoff despite concerns about her lack of political experience.

Trump has since made more than one last-minute visit to the Palmetto State in what many see as a sign of GOP stress in the red stronghold.

South Carolina is “a little bit more of a reach for Democrats” than toss-up contests like Kansas, said Geoffrey Skelley, DDHQ’s chief elections analyst, “because of the racial polarization and voting patterns in South Carolina.”

Both DDHQ and Cook Political Report rate South Carolina’s Senate contest as “lean Republican.”

“This could be an early barometer for Democrats on election night — if it’s even within a few points, gale force winds could be forming for Republicans,” Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote in a preelection analysis, though she predicted the seat will ultimately remain “just out of reach for Democrats.”

Republicans dominate in Trump’s home state of Florida, but forecasters have softened the Senate contest from safe-red ratings to show a real chance for Democrats amid frustration with the status quo.

Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who was appointed to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio , is polling ahead of Democrat Angie Nixon by single digits in a state that Trump won by 13 points last cycle.

The winner of Tuesday’s election will serve the last two years of Rubio’s term, which is up in 2028, and would need to run again in two years for a full term in the upper chamber.

Both DDHQ and Cook Political Report now rate Florida’s Senate fight as “likely Republican,” a step closer to “safe” red territory than South Carolina’s rating.

Nixon, who defeated Trump whistleblower Alex Vindman in an unexpected primary upset , “would be faring better” without her Democratic Socialists of America affiliation, Taylor noted.

But Florida’s race could also be impacted by changes in the Hispanic and Latino bloc , which makes up roughly a third of the Sunshine State’s population . The demographic moved toward Trump in 2024 but appears to be turning back to Democrats amid frustration with the economy and immigration under a GOP-controlled Washington.

Former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) is running for his old seat in the Granite State and is considered a top recruit for Republicans hoping to claw back ground in blue territory.

His opponent, Rep. Chris Pappas (D), has pulled ahead since the primary, giving Democrats some breathing room — though the seat isn’t a lock for the party just yet.

In the run-up to the election, Pappas suggested his opponent was purposefully keeping his first name out of campaign materials to confuse voters into thinking that his brother, former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), was the one on the ballot.

“Look, if people thought they were voting for me, my brother would be up by 30 points. Come on,” Chris Sununu said on CNN . John Sununu said his brother was “totally wrong.”

“This is a race that no one thought would be in play a year ago, and it’s a toss-up race right now,” the Republican candidate added.

Cook Political Report rates the New Hampshire Senate seat as “lean Democrat,” while DDHQ moves it a step further to the left, to “likely Democrat.”

With Pappas in position to take the seat, DDHQ also considers New Hampshire as the most likely state to see a split-ticket result for Senate and governor, with incumbent Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte on track to fend off Democrat Cinde Warmington.

Republicans could also have a shot in the open race to replace Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) in the upper chamber.

Smith is supporting Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who beat out centrist Rep. Angie Craig (D) in the primary, against former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya (R), who has distanced herself from Trump while sporting his endorsement.

Republicans have been hopeful that recent scrutiny on the state’s sprawling fraud scandal will open a door for them after Trump lost the state by single digits in each of his three elections.

Democrats, though, are trying to capitalize on economic woes and outcry over Trump’s immigration crackdown, which led to Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids that roiled the state earlier this year.

Like New Hampshire, Cook Political Report rates the Minnesota Senate race as “lean Democrat” after moving it toward the GOP in late October, while DDHQ has it a step further to the left, at “likely Democrat.”

“While we still believe the national environment will lift Flanagan to victory, this race’s margin may ultimately even be closer than New Hampshire’s Senate contest, which has seen far heavier investment from outside groups on the airwaves,” Taylor wrote.

Mississippi could prove a sleeper race in the fight for the Senate majority.

Trump won Mississippi by more than 20 points in the presidential race, and Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith started the cycle as the clear favorite.

But as the political winds shift toward Democrats across the country, closer-than-expected polling has raised concerns that Hyde-Smith, who ran behind Trump in 2020, could be in trouble. She’s also taken heat for an unartful response to rising beef prices, as she suggested there were “so many proteins to choose from.”

Democrats have rallied behind Scott Colom, the Lowndes County district attorney, and are pushing for support from Black voters to give him a boost in the Deep South.

Cook Political Report moved the race from “solid” to “likely” Republican in late October, noting that “a Democratic upset in Mississippi would signal a blue tsunami.” DDHQ also rates it “likely” Republican.