New Hampshire Senate race tightens, Rhode Island governor on track to lose: 5 primaries to watch

New Hampshire and Rhode Island will serve up some of the last major primary contests of the 2026 election cycle, showcasing a likely upset in the Rhode Island governor’s race and bitter battles in the contest for retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) seat.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and scientist Karishma Manzur will face off for the senator’s seat on the Democratic side — a primary that some polling suggests may be tightening. Meanwhile, former Sens. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) and Scott Brown (R-Mass.) have mounted comeback bids in the race.

The Granite State’s Democratic primary for Pappas’s seat has turned into a war of words between front-runners Maura Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of Jeanne Shaheen, as the pair has traded barbs over nepotism and corporate influence.

Over in the Ocean State, incumbents are trying to fend off serious primary challengers in the Democratic contests for governor and Providence mayor as Democratic primary voters have made clear their largely antiestablishment and anti-incumbent mood.

Here are five primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Rhode Island:

New Hampshire Senate contest down to the wire

The Democratic contest for New Hampshire’s Senate seat is coming down to the wire on Tuesday as Pappas looks to fight off a challenge from Manzur and three other long-shot challengers to replace Shaheen.

Long viewed as the front-runner, Pappas has been endorsed by high-profile Democrats like Shaheen and former Vice President Kamala Harris, while Manzur has picked up endorsements from former Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and several Democratic state lawmakers.

Polling, too, has shown Pappas as the clear front-runner , though some has suggested the congressman’s lead over Manzur has narrowed.

Polling from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center released late last month showed Pappas leading Manzur by 13 points. Meanwhile, polling released by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics just six days prior showed the congressman holding a 31-point lead.

There’s been increased scrutiny on the accuracy of polling after surveys overstated Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed’s expected win against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and pollsters’ incorrect prediction that democratic socialist Francesca Hong would easily win the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary.

Manzur has contrasted herself with Pappas by arguing he’s been supported by — and therefore beholden to — special interest groups, including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Pappas’s campaign has argued that Manzur’s campaign has misconstrued how much Pappas has received from the pro-Israel lobbying group and has argued that he doesn’t take contributions from corporations’ political groups.

Pappas’s pitch to voters has been that he has a legislative track record of getting things done in Congress and points to the coalitions supporting his campaign, including organized labor and small businesses.

2 ex-GOP senators look to gain foothold back in Congress

Two former Republican senators are duking it out for the chance to return to their old day job in Washington, D.C., even as all signs point to an easy victory for one of them.

Sununu, who’s served in the House and Senate for a combined 12 years, threw his hat in the race after his brother, former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), declined to run for Shaheen’s seat.

Meanwhile, Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate between 2010 and 2013 before later making two unsuccessful bids in both the Bay State and New Hampshire, is mounting a long-shot challenge.

John E. Sununu is backed by key members of Senate Republican leadership such as Sens. Tim Scott (S.C.), chair of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, and John Barrasso (Wyo.), the No. 2 Senate Republican. Polls have consistently shown him comfortably leading Brown by double digits.

Brown, who previously served as U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa under President Trump, has been endorsed by Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and New Hampshire House Speaker Sherman Packard.

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates Shaheen’s seat as “lean Democrat.”

The Democratic primary to replace Pappas in New Hampshire’s eastern 1st Congressional District has turned ugly and personal between front-runner candidates Stefany Shaheen and Sullivan.

Shaheen, a healthcare business owner, has attacked Sullivan, who served as a top aide in the Veterans Affairs Department during the Obama administration, for her campaign donors.

She has accused Sullivan of taking donations from AIPAC, Palantir and others. AIPAC has become a focal point in the midterms amid the party’s divided opinion over how far to support Israel; Palantir donations have also become a source of tension in some primaries given it’s a contractor for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Meanwhile, Sullivan has hit back, launching an ad that describes the younger Shaheen as a “fancy last name” and accuses her of feeling “entitled to your vote.”

Seven other candidates are also running for Pappas’s seat on Tuesday. Some polling suggests that Sullivan holds a single-digit lead over Shaheen. Cook Political Report rates the open House seat as “likely Democrat.”

A bridge threatens to topple Rhode Island governor’s reelection

The 2023 closure — and slow reconstruction — of Rhode Island’s westbound Washington Bridge has emerged as a flash point in the state’s gubernatorial rematch between Gov. Dan McKee (D) and former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, as the incumbent has received pushback for his administration’s handling of the job.

The bridge was closed nearly three years ago after engineers identified structural issues that they feared could cause the bridge to ultimately collapse, prompting state officials to close a major transit route that connected Providence to East Providence.

McKee has drawn frustration and anger from residents over the state’s slow process to demolish and replace the westbound bridge; he notably did not attend the first press conference where news of the bridge closure was revealed.

Demolition of the bridge finished in December — the governor points out it happened ahead of schedule — and completion of the next bridge is expected by 2028.

“I know there is a lot of frustration, and I accept it,” McKee told The New York Times in a recent interview. “But in the end, people are going to realize we did the right thing.”

McKee and Foulkes faced off against each other in 2022, with the governor edging out his opponent by just shy of 3 points in the primary. McKee has attacked Foulkes over her tenure at CVS and its ties to the opioid crisis. CVS reached a settlement in 2022 to pay states $5 billion for its role in the epidemic.

On the campaign trail, Foulkes has acknowledged that CVS made mistakes but argued that the retailer was “the only chain that cut off over 600 pill mill doctors,” according to The Providence Journal .

“We had an almost 40 percent reduction in opioids under my watch. … What that meant is when someone came to the pharmacy with a prescription from one of these doctors based on the DEA [Drug Enforcement Administration] number, we had to send them away, but they could go down the street and fill it,” she told an attendee at a campaign event, according to the Rhode Island news outlet.

Public polling has shown Foulkes with a healthy lead over McKee. Whoever wins the primary on Tuesday will be the heavy favorite to win in November.

Democratic socialist looks for upset in Providence mayoral primary

Rhode Island could see another incumbent ousted this week as Providence Mayor Brett Smiley (D) looks to fend off a challenge from democratic socialist state Rep. David Morales.

Morales has been likened to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, another democratic socialist, given his social media-driven campaign and focus on affordability. He also enjoys the support of key progressives such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).

Meanwhile, the mayor has leaned on his track record while hitting Morales over previous remarks he made about law enforcement, and he suggested the state lawmaker isn’t introducing new ideas.

Smiley has been endorsed by former Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) — he served as her chief of staff — former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D) and Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Neronha (D).