What’s next for Israel as elections leave no clear winner

▪ Uncertainty prevails in Israel elections

▪ Fed’s final rate decision before midterms

As returns are steadily being reported in Israel’s critical parliamentary elections, one thing is becoming clear: there’s uncertainty ahead.

The coalition of parties led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears on track to finish ahead as of the latest results, currently projected to win 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, according to The Times of Israel.

But Netanyahu’s far-right bloc is still expected to fall short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, providing an opening for the opposition led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot .

A retired general who lost both his son and nephew fighting in Gaza against Hamas, Eisenkot is seen as the main alternative for prime minister. His bloc is projected to finish closely behind Netanyahu’s coalition, with 49 seats, as of the latest vote count.

The kingmaker in what comes next may be the two Arab parties — the Joint List and Ra’am — that outperformed expectations and are on track for their best performance ever in Israel’s elections. The parties are currently projected to win as many as 18 or 19 seats, enough to provide or deny a governing coalition.

Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen told local media that any party seeking to replace Netanyahu’s government will have to engage with his faction. He said he was ready to work to ensure Netanyahu is ousted.

“It is either continued racism, continued exclusion and continued supremacy, or genuine Jewish-Arab partnership,” Jabareen said.

Leading up to the election, Eisenkot dismissed a potential coalition with the Arab parties, but it may be his only path to power.

Voter participation was particularly high, with turnout topping 77 percent, easily surpassing the 70 percent of voters who cast ballots during Israel’s last election in 2022.

Exit polls initially indicated Eisenkot’s bloc would finish slightly ahead of Netanyahu’s, but it’s slipped as votes are counted.

The election has been largely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister who built his political brand around being the country’s best defender against its many adversaries. That reputation took a hit following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the deadliest incident in Israel’s history.

Netanyahu’s critics have denounced him for failing to stop the attack and point to reports that he was warned in advance but didn’t take action.

One of Eisenkot’s key campaign promises has been to launch an official investigation into what happened surrounding the Oct. 7 attack, which Netanyahu hasn’t allowed. Another key difference between the candidates is the ultra-Orthodox’s exclusion from military and national service, which Eisenkot has pushed to end.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot don’t differ significantly on the issue of the offensives against Hamas and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both are also hawkish on Iran. The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports that Israel’s foreign policy is likely to remain stable regardless of who comes out on top.

Once all the votes are tallied, the responsibility will fall to Israeli President Isaac Herzog to choose the party he views as having the best chance at forming a government through coalition negotiations. Even though Netanyahu’s party is on track to be the largest in the Knesset, Herzog doesn’t have to choose Likud.

The party leader chosen will have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If those negotiations fail, Herzog can turn to another party leader with the same 28-day timeline.

The final formation of Israel’s government could take weeks. And if no party is able to form a governing coalition, another election could be on Israel’s horizon.

“Change” was a common refrain among voters who spoke to Kelly, who is reporting from Israel this week. She has a breakdown here on the situation with the election too close to call.

▪ The Jerusalem Post : Party leader urges opposition to unite with Arab parties.

▪ The New York Times : Herzog faces a difficult choice.

You are going to start to see breakdowns in the coming days on how many Democrats and Republicans are turning out across the country. One thing, however, we’ve been following is how independent voters will shape this election. I spoke with Andrew Yang about Matthew McConaughey’s recent viral video , and he said this might not be the last time you hear from the actor.

“The speculation has officially been stoked, and you don’t put out that kind of video if you’re not thinking about it,” Yang said of McConaughey’s potential political future.

Here’s one reason why I bring this up: Yes, the midterms are six days away, and the attention is fully on Tuesday. However, the 2028 speculation will further hit overdrive mere hours later.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. CDT on NewsNation.

A federal grand jury has rejected the Justice Department’s (DOJ) attempt to charge former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson over her testimony to Congress about the President Trump’s conduct during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. This marks the latest incidence of a grand jury refusing to hand up an indictment that the DOJ requests, a rarity that has become more common during the second Trump administration.

Trump said he will ban the term artificial intelligence (AI) from “all relevant documents, and everything else,” in favor of the term super intelligence (SI). He signed an executive order last month directing the executive branch to use SI, instead of AI.

The leaders of Finland and Norway initiated a direct call with Russian President Vladimir Putin amid broader efforts to wind down the war in Ukraine. They made clear they spoke only on behalf of their countries, but some European leaders criticized them for breaking with the rest of Europe.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, Sept. 16, 2026. (Mark Schiefelbein, Associated Press)

HOLD STEADY : The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision today, in one of the last major pieces of economic news ahead of the midterm elections Tuesday.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 3.75 percent to 4 percent, though another rate hike is expected before the end of the year. The Fed raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point last month for the first time since 2023.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is opposed to sharing any forward guidance on rate decisions, but CME FedWatch, which relies on 30-day Fed funds futures prices, puts the likelihood of a hold today at more than 90 percent and the likelihood of a rate hike at the next meeting, scheduled for Dec. 8-9, at more than 75 percent.

Affordability and cost of living concerns have been a central focus of the midterms. Annual inflation climbed to 3.7 percent in September, according to the consumer price index, with rising gas prices accounting for more than half of the monthly increase.

▪ The Hill : Fed likely to hold rates steady ahead of midterms.

▪ The Hill : Consumer sentiment ticked up in October after 10-year low last month.

ROLLBACK :The Trump administration announced a proposed rule to scrap regulations on methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Trump touted the proposal at a rally in Texas last night.

The draft rule would particularly ease regulations on “marginal wells,” which produce just 7 percent of the nation’s oil and gas but account for roughly half of its methane emissions. Methane is responsible for about 25 percent of global warming, and it’s 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide.

The administration expects the rollback to save the oil and gas sector $45 billion and allow for an additional 210 million barrels of oil production and 1.41 trillion cubic feet of natural gas from 2027 to 2050. The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports that the U.S. consumes roughly 21 million barrels of oil and 92 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, so the additional production would account for about 10 days’ worth of oil and 15 days’ worth of gas.

▪ The Hill : Dems urge Trump to restore climate funds in goodwill gesture.

QUICK STINT: Jennifer Shuford , the deputy director and chief medical officer of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), announced Tuesday that she will leave her job just four months after Trump appointed her to help steady the agency.

Shuford, a former Texas health commissioner, will stay on through Nov. 12, the CDC said. Her departure comes as the agency faces scrutiny for its handling of measles outbreaks around the country and refusal to accept Pennsylvania’s reported measles-related death count.

In a statement, Shuford said she is leaving to spend more time with family, and she thanked Trump and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for “giving me the opportunity to help lead the CDC,” saying, “It has been an amazing experience and I will be forever grateful for it.”

▪ The Hill : Senate Dems press insurers on Trump’s ObamaCare coverage cuts.

▪ The Hill Insider : Trump officials say men face testosterone crisis. Experts respond.

BAD TIMING : The Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) electronic filing system has been down for hours as the agency’s IT staff works to restore the service, a spokesperson confirmed to The Hill’s Miranda Nazzaro .

It was not immediately clear what caused the outage, but Reuters reported that the FEC website was targeted by a hacker or hackers.

The FEC’s incident update page first indicated that the agency was investigating the issue Monday night, and said “a fix is being implemented” as of this morning. The FEC’s website search function for campaign donations, recipients and political action committee information did not appear to be affected by the outage.

The FEC’s functions should not impact the electoral process next week.

▪ The Hill : CFTC sues Utah over efforts to block prediction markets.

▪ The Hill : Kalshi adds protections for users 18 to 20 years old.

The president will receive an intelligence briefing at 11 a.m. He will greet the Artemis III crew at 1:30 p.m. He will travel to Chillicothe, Ohio, to deliver remarks at 7 p.m. and then return to the White House.

President Trump points to supporters during a campaign rally, Oct. 27, 2026, in Corpus Christi, Texas. (Eric Vryn, Associated Press)

GETTING READY : Democrats are preparing for the Trump administration to attempt to interfere in the results of the midterms following a series of remarks from the president and actions targeting various states.

The Department of Justice’s (DOJ) preemptive lawsuit filed last week to challenge the results of the Alaska Senate race if Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) loses reelection spurred of post-election meddling. The DOJ argues a win by former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) could be the result of confusion with fellow candidate Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot.

Peltola asked a federal judge to dismiss the case , arguing it’s “baseless” and amounts to an illegal attempt by the federal government to wade into the election.

Trump has also directed his attention at Minnesota, writing in a post on Truth Social that his administration is “watching closely” for voter fraud in the Senate race.

That comes after the DOJ earlier this month gave California election officials 48 hours to set aside 20,000 ballots the department claimed were from noncitizens and on Monday asking officials in Washington state to review a list of more than 400 registered voters it believes could be noncitizens.

The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports that these efforts have sparked fears among Democrats that the administration might challenge the results if Republicans take big losses on Election Day.

“If and when the election deniers in the Trump administration try similar or new tactics this fall, we will be ready to fight back and ensure that the results are certified according to the will of the voters,” Rachel Jacobs, a senior partner at the Democratic-aligned Elias Law Group, told The Hill.

When asked if he would respect the midterm results , Trump said Tuesday that he would “if they’re honest elections.”

▪ The Hill : Vice President Vance responds to question about ‘insulting’ Alaska lawsuit.

▪ The Hill : What to know a week out from the election.

Opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro speaks after the presidential runoff in Brasilia, Brazil, Oct. 25, 2026. (Eraldo Peres, Associated Press)

WHERE IN THE WORLD : Following his surprise defeat in Brazil’s presidential election, right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has reportedly fled his country to travel to the U.S. as he faces an investigation into allegations he committed financial crimes.

Multiple outlets reported that Bolsonaro, who lost a hotly contested runoff election to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Sunday, left Brazil through Argentina en route to the U.S. A senior State Department official told The Hill that the department will issue visas to Bolsonaro and his family and allow them entry into the country.

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Bolsonaro to surrender his passports shortly after the election and barred him from leaving the country. The senator has been under investigation for alleged involvement in a money laundering scheme.

Bolsonaro’s brother, Eduardo , publicly urged him to leave Brazil if he lost the election. A deadline for him to surrender his regular and diplomatic passports passed at noon Tuesday.

He acknowledged the order in an Instagram video Monday as he went to meet with his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro . The younger Bolsonaro’s loss is a blow also to the former president, who is under house arrest as part of his prison sentence following his conviction for his role in the Jan. 8, 2023, attacks in the Brazilian capital Brasilia.

Jair Bolsonaro and others convicted of crimes related to the attacks were expected to receive a pardon if Flávio Bolsonaro won.

The younger Bolsonaro had seemed to be on the precipice of being elected president of South America’s largest country after he finished first in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election earlier this month. But Lula managed to pull off an impressive comeback to win another four-year term in the head-to-head runoff.

Flávio Bolsonaro rejected the results and called for the election to be annulled over a court order keeping the polls open for two hours longer on election day, which was made at both candidates’ requests. The senator’s party recognized the results Monday, even as Flávio Bolsonaro has not conceded.

▪ Axios : Brazil’s election ignites MAGA’s midterm warnings.

▪ The Associated Press : Environmentalists celebrate Lula’s reelection.

Justice for Camp Lejeune families cannot depend on an election , Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) writes in The Hill.

The ‘weapon of war’ argument has backfired on AR-15 bans , Matthew Cavedon writes in The Hill.

Sophia Bush speaks on a panel during the Global Citizen NOW summit, May 14, 2026, in New York. (Heather Khalifa, Associated Press)

And finally … The Hill’s “In the Know” columnist Judy Kurtz sat down with “One Tree Hill” actress Sophia Bush yesterday to discuss her political activism and why she doesn’t feel the need to limit herself to just entertainment.

“What would I do, silence myself? Take away one of my most important rights to be more palatable or more hirable to people I don’t know? That’s not something that I’m interested in,” Bush told Kurtz , when asked about her decision to campaign in 2008 for then-Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

Bush shared details of her life in the entertainment world and in politics in a wide-ranging conversation about her new book, “And I Will Tell You Mine.”

“You have stories you’re finally ready to tell, and I think for me, after years of advocating for other people and for community, it felt really special to turn that patient attention inward and actually decide to share some things about my own personal individual life,” she said.