Texas, Alaska, Maine Senate races flip blue on DDHQ map

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) is forecasting Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Maine will flip toward Democrats on Tuesday, enough to put the party in a prime position of winning back the upper chamber.

DDHQ forecasts that Democrats James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska have a 61 percent chance of winning their Senate races, while giving Maine Democrat Troy Jackson a 63 percent chance of beating Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).

DDHQ forecasts that Democrats are likely to notch a 52-48 edge in the upper chamber, though many of the Senate contests are still polling within the margin of error, meaning they’re statistically tied.

Overall, Democrats have a 64 percent probability of winning the Senate, according to the DDHQ forecast, while Republicans have a 36 percent chance.

A year ago, it seemed unthinkable that the Democratic Party would be able to have a serious chance at flipping the upper chamber given the number of traditionally red states Republicans were defending.

But those fortunes have changed in recent months as President Trump’s approval ratings have rapidly declined while voters say the cost of living is too high. The war in Iran and the tariff war with Canada increased the price of goods like gas and fertilizer, particularly impacting agricultural states.

Recent polling has suggested there’s reason for Democratic optimism, with surveys from The New York Times and Siena University released over the weekend showing the party edging out the GOP in seven competitive Senate races. However, only Talarico and Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) were polling outside the full margin of error spread.

Many on both sides expect those races to be tighter match-ups.

Democrats did grapple with some unwelcome news on Sunday, when Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) decided to reverse her endorsement of El-Sayed and back GOP nominee Mike Rogers instead.

Members of the party were furious with Stevens , with leaders including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who backed her in the Michigan Senate primary, calling it a “despicable betrayal.”

Some Democrats and experts believe Stevens’s last-minute move is unlikely to change the overall trajectory of the race but saw it as an unwelcome distraction for the party that could needlessly cost them votes on Tuesday.