Trump faces ‘purest referendum’ in South Carolina

South Carolina’s surprisingly competitive Senate race poses one of the clearest tests of President Trump’s continued sway over Republican voters, as his popularity sinks across the political spectrum.

He’ll return to the state for the second time in two weeks Thursday, seeking to boost South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham (R), who he backed in a bruising primary fight to replace her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

A New York Times/Siena poll released Wednesday showed Graham and her Democratic opponent Annie Andrews neck and neck in the state that Trump won by 17 points two years ago.

“Trump helps a lot. More than a lot. He is everything in this race. But for him nobody outside her immediate family would know who Darline is,” said one high-ranking South Carolina Republican.

“That said, that makes this election perhaps the purest referendum on Trump we’ve seen to date. More so than even [Ken] Paxton or Herschel Walker,” the Republican added.

Trump’s upcoming visit to Rock Hill, S.C., will also put him squarely in the backyard of Graham’s chief primary rival, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).

Norman, who has broken with Trump numerous times in the past, told CNN on Tuesday that the Senate race is an attempt to “force” a candidate onto South Carolina voters.

“The voters in South Carolina are not buying the argument that everyone has to ‘settle’ for a candidate that has been propped up by special interest groups and a Republican president spending millions of dollars spreading false narratives about why Darline Graham is qualified to be elected to the U.S. Senate for the next six years,” the congressman said Tuesday.

Graham defeated Norman in the state’s Republican primary runoff in August by just under 5 points. Maggie Knox, a South Carolina GOP official, predicted that the fallout of Norman’s criticism of Graham would not impact her support with the conservative base by more than 1 percent on Election Day.

“What I see is a lot of noise from folks who are not involved, who are not in leadership positions, who are not influential anymore saying, ‘Write in Ralph,’ but I just don’t think that’s going to happen,” said Tyson Grinstead, chair of South Carolina’s Richland County Republican Party and former Sen. Lindsey Graham campaign adviser.

Knox said a bigger concern is whether Republicans feel motivated to vote at all.

“Complacency is our greatest enemy right now,” she said.

Rock Hill is also strategically located along the North Carolina border, giving Graham earned media in the expensive Charlotte media market and allowing Trump to boost North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley (R).

“It’s not really so much that he’s focusing on South Carolina super hard, but I think that [he’s] once again helping us fight complacency, but certainly making sure North Carolinians show up,” Knox said.

However, Trump’s popularity across the country, including in the Carolinas, has taken a hit as a result of the economy and the Iran war. According to a Civiqs tracking poll, Trump’s approval rating in the Palmetto State sits at 41 percent while his disapproval rating clocks in at 51 percent.

Whatley, another hand-picked Trump candidate, is widely expected to lose to the popular former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in North Carolina’s Senate race.

And as Trump’s popularity continues to decline, Senate Republicans have faced closer-than-expected races in what are normally considered reliably red states, including South Carolina.

Wednesday’s New York Times/Siena poll showed Graham and Andrews tied at 48 percent with a margin of error of 4.3 percent. Meanwhile, a poll released by The Citadel on Tuesday showed Graham with a 4-point lead over Andrews, and a South Carolina Policy Center poll released on the same day showed Graham up by 2 points.

Last week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the race toward Democrats, from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

South Carolina Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright predicted Trump’s visits to the state will be “a base motivator” — for Democrats.

“I honestly think the race is a 50-50 jump ball,” Seawright said. “For Democrats, we must get down the field every time we have the ball in our hands, and the ball is in our hands at this point.”

This week, Andrews received a joint, bipartisan endorsement from former South Carolina Govs. David Beasley (R) and Jim Hodges (D). Beasley lost his reelection bid to Hodges, the last Democratic governor of the state, in 1998.

Beasley has become an outspoken critic of the GOP and wrote in an op-ed last week that the party “is not the party that I consider myself a member of.”

Democrats also note Andrews’s recent efforts to target Republican and independent voters in red-leaning areas of the state, including Aiken County, where she held a town hall earlier this week. Andrews has also made stops in Myrtle Beach, Little River, Fort Mill, Union, Camden, Anderson, Lancaster and Lyman.

Fort Mill, Union, Camden and Lancaster are all located in Norman’s district.

Graham will also campaign in Norman’s district when Trump hits the campaign in Rock Hill. The visit comes as Norman has lashed out at Graham and Trump in the final days before the election.

In an interview with CNN on Wednesday, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) predicted that Graham will “barely” pull it off but acknowledged the impact of the resistance of some in the conservative base to Graham.

“There is an effort afoot where people are pushing back on this narrative where they’re going to be shoved a candidate down our throat to vote a certain way. I think that people feel boondoggled,” Mace said.