On the Ballot: The 5 key money moves in the priciest midterms yet

With less than a week left in the most expensive midterms ever, the pressure is on for this cycle’s big spending to pay off.

More than $11 billion has poured into races across the country, smashing records as Republicans scramble to keep their House and Senate majorities against a national map that’s shifted in Democrats’ favor.

The battleground Senate races in Ohio and Texas have each seen more than $500 million in ad spending, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, as Democrats put Republicans on defense in red territory.

As Democrats fight for a blue wave in the House, eight races from this midterm cycle have already entered the top-10 most expensive on record, according to AdImpact — and gubernatorial race ad spending has hit a record $2.4 billion, up by more than half a billion from the 2022 midterm cycle.

Meanwhile, tech mogul Elon Musk and key super PACs, from crypto groups to AIPAC, are pumping money into races to tip the scales in the closing days.

Here are some of the biggest takeaways from the most expensive midterms on record:

The 2025-26 cycle crossed the threshold this week to become the most expensive cycle ever — surpassing not just past midterms, but past presidential cycles.

According to data tracked by AdImpact , this cycle has seen $11.21 billion in ad spending and reservations as of Monday, edging past the $11.2 billion spent during the 2023-24 presidential cycle.

That staggering dollar figure comes from record-breaking spending on the House, Senate and governor’s races, plus a huge sum from down ballot and state Legislative contests.

Roughly $2.3 billion has been spent on House races, up from $1.6 billion in 2022 and $1.7 billion in 2024, according to AdImpact , as Democrats grow bullish about taking the lower chamber majority.

Spending on governor’s races have also surged to $2.6 billion, up from $1.9 billion in 2022 and just half a billion in 2024. A whopping $3.2 billion has been spent so far on Senate races, up from $2.3 billion in the 2022 midterms and rivaling the $3.2 billion spent on presidential campaigns in 2024.

The chart-smashing numbers signal the intensity of this year’s races as Republicans scramble to keep their hold on Washington through the end of Trump’s second term.

According to recent Federal Election Commission filings, the president’s MAGA Inc. super PAC has spent $277 million over the last six weeks. And the Republican National Committee moved $44 million into its House and Senate campaign arms between mid-August and mid-October in a last-minute fundraising surge.

With less than a week to go before votes are tallied, Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) forecast gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning the House — and a probability of just under 60 percent that they flip the Senate.

The Senate races in Texas and Ohio are a coin-toss heading into Election Day, and eye-popping expenses underscore just how desperate both parties are to influence where it falls.

Roughly $558 million had been spent in the Lone Star State as of AdImpact’s Tuesday analysis, and another $500 million had poured into ruby-red Ohio.

The governor’s race in California, where Democrat Xavier Becerra is poised to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) as leader of the state with the highest population and biggest economy in the country, and the Michigan Senate race, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is fighting Republican Mike Rogers for the battleground seat, both made the top-10 most expensive non-presidential races on record. Just under $350 million has been spent on each.

It’s the first cycle in which multiple non-presidential races have crossed the $500 million-mark, according to the data.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico raked in $64 million in the third quarter — more than any Senate candidate ever in that timeframe, his campaign said — compared to $18 million raised in the same period by rival Republican Ken Paxton as the Democrat narrowly leads in recent polls of the GOP-dominated state.

But Republicans and their supporters weren’t backing down in the home stretch: tech mogul Elon Musk poured $158 million into a key super PAC backing Paxton, according to filings ahead of the election, prompting Talarico to accuse Musk of trying to “buy his own personal U.S. senator.”

In Ohio, Democrat former Sen. Sherrod Brown raised $23.1 million to Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted’s $5 million in the third quarter.

The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, the Trump-backed MAGA Inc. and Musk’s America PAC have all poured in for a reported total of $113.5 million attacking Brown, according to the Ohio Capital Journal, compared to $69.5 million in outside groups spending to attack Husted.

Musk announced plans last spring to step back from political spending after injecting hundreds of millions into the 2024 election to boost Trump and Republicans to win their trifecta control of Washington.

Less than a year later, the world’s richest person reversed course, and he’s again become a major player in this year’s pricey midterms.

Musk, whose net worth is just under a trillion dollars, has spent more than $442 million on the midterms, according to his super PAC’s last filing before Election Day, topping the estimated $290 million he spent on 2024 contests.

He’s spent big against Talarico in Texas, including $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund that was later dispersed to a pro-Paxton super PAC.

Talarico has accused Musk of trying to “buy his own personal U.S. senator,” saying there’s “something deeply wrong” with a political system that allows it to happen.

Of the $11 billion that’s flooded this cycle, just 40 of the biggest donors gave $2.5 billion through mid-October, according to analysis from the Brennan Center. That’s up substantially from $755 million given by the top-40 donors in the 2018 midterms, and $1.2 billion given in the 2022 cycle.

And those top-40 donors have overwhelmingly backed Republicans each cycle since 2018, according to the Brennan Center, with $1.5 billion from GOP donors against less than half a billion from Democrats, and another half a billion from bipartisan sources.

As the top-40 biggest spenders shift further toward the GOP, cryptocurrency has surged as the leading special-interest sector, according to the Brennan Center’s analysis.

Crypto, which was not represented in the top 40 donors before the 2022 elections has now outpaced labor as a leading bipartisan interest.

The crypto industry has spent roughly $176 million across more than a hundred races in a push to elect candidates they expect will be legislative allies, Reuters reported this week.

Fairshake, a major crypto super PAC, has spent millions to back more than a dozen Democrats and Republicans running for the House, The Hill reported earlier this month , including $1 million each on six candidates: Reps. Janelle Bynum (D-Ore.), Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.), French Hill (R-Ark.), Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.).

The super PAC also planned to spend at least $30 million in Ohio alone to oppose Brown’s Senate comeback bid, after the crypto industry spent heavily to oust Brown in the 2024 election.

8 House races join all-time top-10 priciest

Democrats are working in overdrive to claw back control of the House this fall, and the spending numbers underscore which close races to watch on Election Day.

Eight House general elections from this midterm cycle have now entered the 10 most expensive on record, according to AdImpact’s Tuesday numbers.

In first place is the race for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, where Republican Laurie Buckhout is challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis in a 2024 rematch after redistricting made the moderate Davis a top target for the GOP.

Roughly $30 million has been spent on the Democratic side, according to AdImpact, compared to $23 million on the GOP side.

Republicans and Democrats have spent roughly $25 million each in Florida’s 25th Congressional District, where Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) is running for the redistricted seat against former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R).

DDHQ rates both races as “lean Democrat,” while Cook Political Report still considers them toss-ups.

In New York’s purple 17th Congressional District, roughly $47 million has been spent in total as Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) fights for another term against Democrat Cait Conley.

Around $44 million total has been spent in Michigan’s 10th Congressional District, where Trump-backed Army Capt. Michael Bouchard faces Democrat former special victims prosecutor Christina Hines in a wide-open race. Another $42 million has gone into Texas’s 34th Congressional District, where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) tries for reelection against Republican Eric Flores after redistricting made his seat redder.

Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden and Democrat Rebecca Cooke are in a battleground rematch, and Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, where Democrat Manny Rutinel aims to oust incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colo.), also made the all-time top-10, according to AdImpact — with around $42 million and $41 million spent in those districts, respectively.

Voters will decide next week which of this cycle’s pricey campaigns were worth the cost.

Welcome to The Hill’s On The Ballot. We’re Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil — reach out to us on X ( @jmthewriter + @CarolineVakil) or via email ( jmueller@thehill.com + cvakil@thehill.com.)

The House and Senate forecasts less than a week out from Election Day

Democrats have a 4 in 5 shot of flipping the House and rising odds of taking the Senate with just five days to go before midterm results roll in, according to the latest forecasts from The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

The party’s 80 percent probability in the House and 58 percent chance the Senate are their highest marks for either chamber this cycle.

Democrats emerged battered and bruised from the 2024 presidential election, but a string of off-year wins emboldened the party through 2025. Now, the polls point to a real possibility of a blue wave when ballots are tallied on Tuesday.

Republicans, already up against the longtime trend of a president’s party losing ground in a midterm year, have been pummeled by voter frustration with President Trump and the GOP’s handling of the economy, the war in Iran, immigration and more.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrats are on track to win 238 seats in the House, according to DDHQ — a 41-seat advantage over Republicans.

The Senate is more of a challenge, but Democrats are narrowly favored to win a 51-seat edge in the upper chamber.

Democrats are also favored in 22 of three-dozen governor’s races on Tuesday’s ballot, on track to flip five offices while Republicans are favored to flip one.

The fight for Control of Congress is expected to come down to a handful of toss-up contests. DDHQ’s latest analysis shows 10 battlegrounds in the House, including dead-head races in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, New York’s 17th Congressional District and Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District.

There are just 4 toss-up contests in the Senate, according to DDHQ, with marquee showdowns to watch in Iowa, Ohio, Maine and Texas.

Ticket-splitting could make the difference in these 3 battleground states, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports .

Midterm results could bring brewing student loan battle to a head, The Hill’s Lexi Lonas Cochran writes.

Democrats see the battleground map expand to include South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports.

As the midterm cycle heats up, we’re asking folks in the elections space what they’re consuming on and off the campaign trail.

Adam Hamilton, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Kansas

Democrat Adam Hamilton is a Methodist pastor running for Senate in Kansas. He faces republican Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) in what Cook Political Report rates as a rare “toss up” contest in the ruby red state.

What’s the last book you read? Priced Out:The Economic and Ethical Costs of American Health Care by Uwe E. Reinhardt American Covenant: How the Constitution Unified Our Nation—and Could Again by Yuval Levin What’s your snack of choice? Dark chocolate peanut m&ms What album or podcast do you have on repeat? Adios by Glen Campbell and lots of Dolly Parton What’s your go-to caffeine source? I’m not much of a caffeine guy but on the trail I’m learning to drink sugar free RedBull What TV show are you watching right now? Most recent season of Ted Lasso What’s your go-to restaurant in Kansas? Jack’s Stack (but of course I love all Kansas BBQ)

Oct. 29: Vice President Vance rallies in Weatherford, Texas

Oct. 29: WVIA holds Pennsylvania’s 8 th District debate at 7 p.m. ET

Oct. 30: Former Vice President Harris rallies in Georgia with Sen. Jon Ossoff

Oct. 30: President Trump rallies in Daytona Beach, Fla.

Bobby Pulido’s grand old Democratic Party ( Texas Monthly )

Why a polling miss in one state tells us little about the next ( The New York Times )

Dems hope to clinch the state by flipping Collin County, Paxton’s homebase and a longtime GOP bastion ( The Texas Tribune )

What is the Cook Political Report, and why is Washington so obsessed with it ( The Washington Post )