Final poll sets stage for Texas Senate race before Election Day

Election Day is almost here, and a new poll is setting the stage for a nationally watched Texas U.S. Senate race , as Democrats hope to flip the Republican seat blue for the first time since 1988.

A final poll from the New York Times/Siena University , released Nov. 1, shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton , 50% to 43%.

The 7-point lead is outside the poll's 3.3 percentage-point margin of error and was conducted among 1,215 Texas voters from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1.

In the state's governor's race , Democrat challenger Gina Hinojosa and Republican Gov. Greg Abbott are statistically tied, 48% to 47%.

As Texans head to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3, here's how the polls compare to other recent polls.

Latest Talarico-Paxton Texas Senate race polls

Over the past few months, Democrat Talarico has led or tied Paxton either within the margin of error — making it a statistical tie — or just outside it.

A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll, released Oct. 22, found that 48% of likely voters support Talarico and 46% support Paxton — a 2-point lead within the poll's 3.1 percentage points margin of error.

The Cook Political Report also published a battleground poll, released Oct. 21, on the Texas Senate race showing Talarico leading Republican Paxton 49% to 44% — a 5-point lead outside the poll's 3.2 percentage points margin of error.

Here's how they compare with other recent October polls:

U of H Hobby poll (Oct. 18) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%.

Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.

UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%.

ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.

UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.

YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.

The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.

U of H Hobby poll (Oct. 18) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.

Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.

UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 48%

ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 47%

UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 44%.

YouGov poll (Oct. 6 ) — Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%.

The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%.

Fox News (Oct. 1) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 47%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com .