The Senate map driving Trump’s late-stage travel blitz

President Trump’s focus with two weeks to go before the midterms is squarely on the Senate, as he travels to a series of red states, some of which are threatening to turn blue.

The president’s travel schedule has included stops in states seen as deep red such as Alabama, Oklahoma and Tennessee, as well as states such as Texas and Kansas where Democratic Senate candidates are in toss-up races.

The president is often giving nods to House campaigns during his travels, but he’s avoiding swing districts for red congressional spots.

That reflects the GOP’s focus on the Senate, where the majority is seen as anyone’s game, in contrast with the House majority, which many Republicans acknowledge will be tough to save.

“That is the conventional wisdom: the House is gone. It’s: protect the Senate with a possible expanding map,” one Republican strategist said.

According to projections by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), The Hill’s partner, the GOP has just a 23 percent chance of winning the House majority. The Senate is more of a coin flip that slightly favors Democrats, who have a 56 percent chance of winning the majority compared with a 44 percent chance for Republicans, per DDHQ.

Trump on Monday embarks on his busiest campaign travel week of the election cycle yet, with stops scheduled in Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, Georgia and Michigan.

One Republican official noted that the party has placed an emphasis on Senate races, saying that much of where Trump is going is decided by where Republicans believe he can best boost statewide turnout.

The president will rally in Wichita, Kan., Monday to boost incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) before he heads to Greenville, N.C., to campaign for Republican Senate nominee Michael Whatley on Tuesday.

The North Carolina visit shows Trump hasn’t forgotten the House.

Greenville is in North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District, which is considered a safe Republican district. However, it borders the state’s highly competitive 1st Congressional district where Republican Laurie Buckhout is challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis.

On Wednesday, Trump will rally in deep-red Clemson, S.C., where Sen. Darlene Graham (R) is defending her seat from Democrat Annie Andrews. The president will visit another competitive Senate state Thursday when he rallies in Sioux City, Iowa, for Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa).

“I think the location for some of President Trump’s rallies do speak more to concerns about the Senate,” said Geoffrey Skelley, DDHQ’s chief elections analyst.

He pointed to Trump’s Sioux City stop, where Iowa’s 4th Congressional District is not considered competitive, as an example.

“That’s basically the reddest part of Iowa is the western part of the state,” Skelley said. “And so, if you’re concerned about Republican base turnout, it’s a place where President Trump could be used very strategically to try to encourage some frustrated Republican voters, or you know, maybe less attuned Republican voters, to go out and cast a ballot in a very important Senate race.”

Trump will head to Florida on Friday, which is home to a Senate race and what appears to be an increasingly competitive gubernatorial race. The city he is set to campaign in, Naples, is a Republican stronghold and home to the party’s gubernatorial nominee Rep. Byron Donalds.

On Saturday, Trump will travel to Georgia’s red-leaning 8th Congressional District to galvanize support for Senate nominee Rep. Mike Collins and gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson. The president will then head to Michigan to campaign for GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers in the state’s 9th Congressional District, which is home to House Republican Conference Chair Rep. Lisa McClain (R).

“Republicans are thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm precedent,” said Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary at the Republican National Committee. “The president is barnstorming the country in strategic areas and pouring resources into battleground races to tout his historic achievements, giving Republicans a boost to defy history in November.”

While Trump’s focus appears to be on Senate races, he has taken trips to a number of competitive House districts.

Earlier this month, Trump held a rally for New York GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman in Syracuse, N.Y., which is in the state’s 22nd Congressional District. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as “solid Democrat.”

The president also made a stop in San Antonio to rally support for Republican candidate Carlos De La Cruz in the newly redrawn district, which the Cook Political Report rates as “lean Republican.”

And while Trump’s trip to Kentucky on Saturday took place in the state’s GOP-leaning 4th Congressional District, the event was only roughly 7 miles from Cincinnati, Ohio, home to another fiercely competitive Senate race.

“I feel good,” Trump said of his midterm outlook Monday, adding that “a lot of the polls are rigged.”

“I’m the one that’s doing the rallies, that’s taking people into a winning position,” the president told reporters on the South Lawn.

“When you take a look at what’s happened since I’ve been doing these massive, totally sold-out rallies, nobody’s ever seen anything like it,” he said.

A White House official noted that Trump has also used rallies to tout the administration’s accomplishments for the regions he’s visited, as well as their proximity to neighboring media markets.

“With finite resources, he is going places where he can make the biggest impact. President Trump’s message and wins resonate everywhere, and the president wants to communicate with all voters,” the official said.

Republicans “need a major polling error to have a shot” at the House this fall, Skelley said.

Democrats are now considered likely to flip the House and win a 235-200 seat advantage over Republicans, according to the latest DDHQ forecasts. In the Senate, Democrats are narrowly favored to win a 51-49 seat majority.

Against that highly competitive backdrop, Trump’s approval rating is now roughly 20 points underwater , according to DDHQ’s tracker, amid voter frustration with his handling of the economy, the war in Iran and immigration.

Though Trump has urged Republican voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot” and boost turnout in November, the president’s problematic polling numbers have raised questions for some vulnerable Republicans about just how helpful his campaign trail stops are.

“He’s certainly not welcomed in swing states and even some of these red states. He can be problematic sometimes,” the Republican strategist said.

In audio leaked this month to The New York Times , Texas Senate hopeful Ken Paxton said Republicans’ “Trump-a-palooza” midterm convention in Dallas “dropped our numbers.”

Experts have cautioned that Trump’s recent stops in states such as Texas and ruby-red Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is battling incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), could end up energizing Democrats and independents to turn out against them.

“It took, I think, the Iran conflict to really, really juice this up to a point where Democrats could have a shot because the gas price situation just really, it just really it just exacerbates what was already a lot of economic frustration,” Skelley said.

“Democrats are in this position where they could actually pull it off.”