Ricketts leads independent candidate Osborn by 6 points in latest Nebraska Senate poll

Just ahead of Election Day, Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) leads his independent challenger Dan Osborn, a new survey of the Nebraska Senate race shows.

The New York Times/Siena University poll shows Ricketts leading Osborn by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent, respectively, among likely Nebraska voters.

November’s election is the second cycle in a row in which no Democrat was on the Nebraska Senate ballot. In 2024 and 2026, Democrats backed Osborn instead of supporting their own candidate, hoping to have a better shot at defeating the GOP.

While Osborn has not said he would caucus with one party or the other in the U.S. Senate, most Nebraska voters see him as more aligned with Democrats, the Times poll shows. Fifty-five percent think Osborn is more similar to Democrats, while just 33 percent believe he is more of an independent. Only 4 percent said he was more of a Republican.

Being branded as a Democrat does not get you far in Nebraska, where 71 percent of voters said they were dissatisfied with the Democratic Party.

Still, Osborn is running just 6 points behind in a state President Trump carried by more than 20 points in 2024. The president’s approval is underwater in the Times poll, but just barely — 47 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove of his job performance.

Osborn came within just over 6 points from winning in 2024 as well, when he ran a surprisingly competitive race against Sen. Deb Fischer (R).

Since that campaign however, Republicans have had more time to define Osborn and paint him as a Democrat, which may have hurt his image with voters.

Democrats in South Dakota and Idaho also have no candidate on the ballot and are backing independent challengers to GOP Sens. Mike Rounds and Jim Risch, respectively. Montana Democrats attempted to do the same, backing independent Seth Bodnar against Republican Kurt Alme, but Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her party’s primary, refused to drop out of the race.

While Ricketts leads in the Senate race, Democrats in Nebraska’s House races are running surprisingly strong. The party is heavily favored to flip the open 2nd Congressional District, and is even contesting the 1st district, represented by Rep. Mike Flood (R), which Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Trump traveled to Nebraska to rally for Ricketts in early October, one of his many stops in deep-red states that his party is struggling to hold in the midterms.

The Times/Siena poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to 29 among 809 likely Nebraska voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 points.