Fox News predicts Democrats will win House in midterms for first time this cycle

Fox News has predicted Democrats will win the House in the November midterm elections, the outlet’s first time predicting a Democratic win of either chamber during this election cycle.

“Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year,” Fox News contributor Rémy Numa wrote about his latest power rankings , which were released Tuesday.

The rankings showed Democrats winning 219 House seats to lock in a majority, with 20 races shifted toward Democrats. Republicans are expected to keep 198 seats, with 18 other races considered toss-ups.

“On a good night for the Democrats, the party will hold around 237 seats, or a gain of 22 from their current position,” Numa wrote. “That’s because toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party’s direction in previous elections.”

He later added that a “great night” for Democrats would be to win some of the seats that lean Republican, giving them a boost with 249 seats. But if the toss-up seats go for Republicans, the GOP could end up with 216 seats, short of a majority but leaving the Democrats “with a mere two-vote cushion in the House.”

Numa said GOP losses and potential Democratic gains would be the result of rising gas, diesel and grocery prices, writing that voters “keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them.”

The rankings show both parties are favored to win 47 seats in the Senate, with Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas named as toss-ups, any of which can determine who takes control of the upper chamber. Winning those seats gives Democrats the majority “with two seats to spare,” Numa wrote, adding that the forecast still sees a path to victory for the GOP.

The toss-ups have been locked in through the summer, but he added that some states leaning Republican could be close. Numa said Republican Senate candidate Michele Tafoya has made gains in Minnesota, but she is narrowly behind Democratic opponent Peggy Flanagan. He projects Flanagan ahead of Tafoya at 47-43, with the state shifting from likely Democrat to lean Democrat.

“Republicans are fully united behind Tafoya, while 9 in 10 Democrats say they’ll support Flanagan’s bid. Independents are much less settled: 38 percent back Tafoya, 32 percent support Flanagan and 29 percent haven’t decided,” he wrote.

Polling weeks away from the midterms has shown Democrats winning the majority in the House amid the president’s sinking popularity and rising concerns over the cost of living and energy prices. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gives Democrats a 77 percent probability of winning the House as of Wednesday, likely holding 235 seats compared with Republicans’ 200.

Democrats face a much narrower path to victory in the Senate, with DDHQ showing a 56 percent probability of winning. Republicans would hold on to 49 seats in this scenario.