Senate ‘pure toss-up’ ahead of midterms: DDHQ

Fight for control of the Senate hangs in the balance with just eight weeks to go until the midterm elections, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

The nonpartisan election analyst on Monday shifted its November forecast to “a pure toss-up” for the upper chamber of Congress for the first time since the beginning of June. DDHQ said it based its rating on an average seat outcome across 1 million simulations.

The new forecast is a slight change from the end of August, which found Republicans with a 2-point average lead over Democrats in Senate races.

DDHQ predicts Democrats will retake control of the House in the November contests. The election forecaster pegs the likelihood of the outcome at 67 percent as of Tuesday.

Other election analysts and polls have also indicated it will be a tough battle between Democrats and Republicans for majority control of the Senate. The GOP currently has a 6-seat advantage in the chamber, with 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats.

The Cook Political Report rates six Senate races as a “toss up,” including five seats currently held by Republicans and the open Michigan race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

The nonpartisan election forecaster also shifted the Texas Senate race to a “toss up” after four-term Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) lost his reelection bid in the GOP primary runoff race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton earlier this year.

Paxton is up against Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) in the November race. An Emerson College Poll from last month found the two candidates are neck and neck, with the Republican polling at 47 percent support and the Democrat at 46 percent.

Republicans are traveling to the state this week for a GOP midterm convention in Dallas to drum up excitement among the party’s voters. President Trump, Vice President Vance, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) are all expected to make an appearance at this two-day event.

Thune told South Dakota’s KELOLAND News last week that he is concerned about losing the majority in the upper chamber.

“I worry about that, for sure,” he told the local outlet. “I’m a realist, and I just think you, I don’t ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it’s a competitive environment right now. I think we got the highest-quality candidates.”

Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has expressed confidence in his party’s chances of retaking the Senate this fall, saying last month that Democrats “now have multiple paths for the majority.”

“We found new states — Iowa, Texas — which people a year ago weren’t even paying attention to,” he said.