The 2026 midterms are just 12 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.

The 2026 midterm elections are just 12 days away. So where do things stand — nationwide — in the race to control Congress? Which party has a better chance of, you know, winning? To get a sense of that, it helps to geek out over some cold, hard data.

The usual caveats apply, of course. Polls aren't predictions; they're momentary snapshots of public opinion. Big events can, and often do, change the course of elections. And polls have been wrong before .

Yet time is running out — and the stakes in November couldn't be higher, especially for President Trump, who has enjoyed complete Republican control of Congress for the first half of his second term. Flipping the House would give Democrats the power to block the president's agenda, investigate his administration and even impeach him (again); flipping the Senate would allow them to stymie his Supreme Court nominees too.

The state-by-state midterm landscape is finally firming up — and some clear polling trends are emerging. Here are the numbers to watch as Election Day nears.

Every pollster asks a version of the same question: If an election for U.S. Congress were held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district? In fact, this particular polling prompt is so pervasive, it's known as the "generic ballot" (at least among politics nerds).

You obviously can't divine the outcome of an entire midterm election from a single question that flattens 435 House contests into a binary choice between "the Democrat" and "the Republican." But the generic ballot can suggest which direction voters are heading.

At this point in 2022 — after more than a year and a half of Democratic President Joe Biden and Democratic majorities in the House and Senate — Republicans had a small but significant lead (2.9 percentage points) on the generic ballot. On Election Day, the GOP translated its final polling lead of 3 percentage points into nine seats — enough to flip the House.

At this point in 2018 — with Trump as president and Republican majorities in the House and Senate — Democrats were leading by an average of 7.3 points on the generic ballot. Two weeks later, they picked up 41 seats and flipped the House.

Polarization wasn't as extreme in 2014 and 2010, the two midterms under Democratic President Barack Obama; minds weren't made up quite so early. But by late October, voters had clearly broken against Democrats. In 2014, a final Republican polling lead of 2.4 points translated into a net gain of 13 seats in the House; in 2010, those numbers were 9.4 points and 63 seats, respectively.

So what does that mean for 2026? Historically speaking, a president's party almost always loses seats when voters return to the polls to judge his first two years in office. Sometimes, the backlash is so pervasive that the president's party loses pretty much every close-ish contest — a phenomenon known as a "wave" election.

Right now, Democrats have a wave-sized lead on the generic ballot — more than 9 percentage points , on average — and it has been steadily growing over the last month.

Democrats might not reprise 2018 and flip 41 House seats again in November, in part because red-state Republican lawmakers have recently redrawn congressional maps across the South to benefit their party in ways that blue-state Democrats have been unable to keep up with . But they only need to pick up three seats to win back the House.

National dynamics tend to define the composition of the incoming House. But Senate contests are quirkier — more state-specific and personality-driven. Democrats currently hold 47 Senate seats; they'd need 51 to control the chamber. (A 50-50 split would give Vice President JD Vance the tiebreaking vote). Polls suggest that flipping four Republican seats is very possible. In the states where Dems are playing defense — Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire — their leads are solidifying; meanwhile, red states such as Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina seem increasingly competitive. Here are the 12 races to follow:

What the latest polls say : Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner , the Democrats' previous scandal-plagued nominee, tends to lead Collins by anywhere from 2 to 4 percentage points . One recent poll shows a tie.

Republican Mike Rogers (former member of Congress)

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (public-health epidemiologist and former Wayne County, Mich. health director)

What the latest polls say : Eighteen polls have been conducted over the last month. Seventeen of them showed El-Sayed in the lead, by anywhere from 1 to 7 percentage points .

What the latest polls say : All but one poll conducted over the last month shows Brown edging Husted , with margins ranging from 1 to 8 percentage points.

Republican Mike Collins (member of Congress)

What the latest polls say : Ossoff holds a solid lead over Collins, with October polls putting him ahead by an average of 8 percentage points .

Republican Michael Whatley (former Republican National Committee chairman)

Republican John E. Sununu (former U.S. senator)

Democrat Chris Pappas (four-term U.S. representative)

What the latest polls say: Pappas and Sununu were previously trading leads in polls in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. But Pappas appears to have opened a substantial lead — average margin: 7 percentage points — over the last month.

Democrat Mary Peltola (former member of Congress)

What the latest polls say : Surveys conducted in October show Peltola leading by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points . Some September polls showed a tie, or Sullivan slightly ahead.

Republican Ashley Hinson (member of Congress)

Democrat Josh Turek (state legislator and former Paralympic athlete)

What the latest polls say : Hinson and Turek have traded small leads in surveys released since Iowa's June 2 primaries .

Republican Ken Paxton (state attorney general)

Democrat James Talarico (state legislator)

What the latest polls say : Nearly every poll conducted over the summer has shown Talarico leading Paxton, though the margins are small — between 1 and 6 points.

Republican Pete Ricketts (incumbent and former governor)

Independent Dan Osborn (veteran and former union leader with Democratic support)

What the latest polls say : Surveys are few and far between. But the most recent nonpartisan results suggest Osborn could be competitive.

Democrat Adam Hamilton (Methodist pastor who previously considered an independent run)

What the latest polls say : Marshall leads by 1 point in the latest sounding — but it's the only survey conducted over the last month that shows him ahead. The rest (save one tie) give Hamilton a slight edge (between 1 and 5 percentage points).

Republican Darline Graham (incumbent, appointed to replace her brother Lindsey Graham after his death in July)

Democrat Annie Andrews (pediatrician and former U.S. House candidate)

What the latest polls say : Graham holds a narrow lead in recent surveys . But it is small enough — between 1 and 3 percentage points — that Democrats are now targeting South Carolina as well.

Advantage? Democrats. They've been consistently gaining ground over the last month, to the point where they are now favored to flip the Senate — unless the polls are wrong.

Trump's approval rating — especially on affordability

To one degree or another, midterm elections are always referendums on how the president is performing. So Trump is the final piece of the puzzle.

At the moment, that's unfortunate news for Republicans on Capitol Hill and those looking to join them.

According to the data journalists at Silver Bulletin , 60.6% of Americans, on average, currently disapprove of how Trump is handling his job vs. 36.3% who approve. That puts the president's net approval rating at -24.3% — down two points from last week, and an all-time low.

Here's a sampling of Trump's latest net approval numbers from a few top pollsters:

Again, history can provide perspective . In mid-September 2018, Trump was about 12 points "underwater"; Republicans went on to lose 41 seats that November.

According to the New York Times , Trump has the second lowest approval rating heading into the midterms since 1946, behind only Harry Truman. George W. Bush's approval rating was higher at this point in 2006 — a year in which Democrats went on to flip the House and Senate.

Trump is earning even lower marks on voters' top 2026 issue: the cost of living . Shortly after he returned to office, roughly equal numbers of Americans approved and disapproved of how the president was handling inflation. But today, 73% disapprove and 25% approve. That's a 48-point gap.

In comparison, Biden's approval rating on inflation was rarely underwater by more than 30 points during his presidency — a period that coincided with the economic shocks of COVID-19 and ended with him choosing not to stand for reelection.