Chris Sununu: ‘Texas is in trouble for Republicans’

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is predicting doom for Republicans in the Texas Senate race , even as he maintains a more optimistic picture for his party nationally.

Speaking with NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo on Thursday night, Sununu predicted that Republican Ken Paxton would lose to Democrat James Talarico in Texas next week.

“I think Texas is in trouble for Republicans,” Sununu said on “Cuomo.”

No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since the 1980s , but the party thinks it has a good shot this year due to Paxton’s weaknesses as a candidate.

Aside from the Lone Star State’s race, the former New Hampshire governor maintains a much more optimistic picture of the Senate than some in his party, as he predicted that “extremists” will lose.

Sununu said he thought reported accusations of ballot stacking against Democrats in Alaska may help Republicans hold the seat, and he predicted wins for the GOP in Maine and Michigan, citing past polling misses .

“You have conservatives or Republicans that just don’t answer polls. They just don’t come out. So we’re always massively underpolled,” Sununu said.

Polls have underestimated Republicans in those states before, but that happened mainly in presidential years when President Trump was on the ballot. An analysis by political data analyst Nate Silver found that while polls significantly overstated Democrats’ leads in 2016, 2020 and 2024, the polls were nearly perfect, with errors of less than half a point, in 2018 and 2022 — the two most recent midterms.

If polls are to be believed this year, they predict an especially bad night for Republicans. According to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, Democrats trail in the average of polls in only two competitive Senate races — Iowa and South Carolina — and lead in all the others. That includes deep-red states like Texas, Kansas and Ohio.

Sununu dismissed polls showing competitive races in some of those states, saying Republicans will “be fine.”

“The conservative states, it’ll be close. But South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, they’ll be fine,” Sununu said.

Sununu’s brother, former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.), is on the ballot this year, running for his old seat in the Granite State against Rep. Chris Pappas (D). While some polls conducted after the September primary showed a close race, Pappas has since pulled ahead and leads by 7 points, according to DDHQ.

Overall, DDHQ’s forecast gives Democrats a 60 percent chance to take back control of the Senate.