Why a blue wave might miss Minnesota’s Senate race

Political headwinds are blowing in Democrats’ favor nationally, with high gas prices and President Trump’s record-low approval rating creating a difficult midterm environment for Republicans.

But in Minnesota’s open Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D), Democrats are facing an unexpectedly competitive race.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) holds a slim lead over former sports reporter Michele Tafoya (R) that’s only narrowed , according to limited public polls ahead of Election Day.

Nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report recently shifted the race in the GOP’s favor — from “likely” to “lean” Democrat, citing Flanagan’s underperformance in polling compared to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D), who is running for governor, a statewide fraud scandal and Republicans notching a strong recruit in Tafoya.

And while Tafoya has an uphill battle in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate in nearly 25 years, Flanagan’s biggest political vulnerability stems from her nearly eight years serving under Gov. Tim Walz (D).

“This is one of the races that could be so close we might have a recount,” said longtime Minnesota political analyst Blois Olson, who called Flanagan’s proximity to the fraud scandal “a little bit like ankle weights around her campaign.”

The sprawling welfare fraud scandal that has engulfed the Walz administration has become a major pain point for the progressive candidate.

Walz abandoned his reelection bid for a third term in January as the allegations of up to billions of dollars in fraud within Minnesota social service programs attracted criticism both in Minnesota and nationally. Flanagan, Walz’s running mate in 2018 and 2022, is one of few in the Walz administration facing voters this November.

Republicans are hoping voters’ frustrations over the administration’s handling of fraud and the anti-incumbency wave will extend to the lieutenant governor, with no incumbent running for governor or the Senate.

“Peggy Flanagan allowed fraudsters to plunder billions in taxpayer dollars on her watch, and now she’s facing questions about her own inflated academic record,” Bernadette Breslin, a spokeswoman for the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, said in a statement to The Hill. “Minnesotans aren’t buying the excuses Flanagan is selling, and they’re counting on Michele Tafoya to protect their hard-earned tax dollars.”

Tafoya has made the fraud scandal a central part of her campaign, arguing that Flanagan and the rest of the Walz administration should be held accountable for failures that occurred during her tenure.

“Why has no one been fired?” Tafoya said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal . “The only real consequence we’ve seen is that Tim Walz was convinced to step out of his third term gubernatorial race because there was no way he was going to survive this. But Peggy Flanagan’s asking for a promotion.”

Even aspects of Flanagan’s personal background have been more heavily scrutinized in recent weeks. The Wall Street Journal initially reported earlier this week that the Minnesota progressive had not been a member of the Phi Beta Kappa honors society, with the campaign saying that while Flanagan was nominated, she couldn’t afford the membership fee.

However, the honor society later provided The Hill and other news outlets a statement, which confirmed she had been a member. The campaign told The Hill that the newspaper’s questions over her status with the honor society prompted internal confusion, and they weren’t able to offer confirmation of her membership to the Journal in time for publication.

Flanagan’s campaign pushed back on Tafoya over her handling of the statewide fraud scandal, pointing to the distinction between the governor’s and the lieutenant governor’s responsibilities.

A campaign official said Walz oversees state agencies and programs, while Flanagan’s statutory duties are more limited.

The official acknowledged that more should have been done sooner to address the fraud and that the issue was personal for Flanagan, who relied on Medicaid and Section 8 housing at one point in her life.

The Tafoya campaign did not respond to a request for comment from The Hill.

While the widespread fraud scandal has put Flanagan on the defensive, Tafoya also faces a political liability of her own with Trump’s souring popularity in the state and as the price of items like gas and fertilizer have shot up amid an ongoing war with Iran and a tariff war with Canada.

Uproar over Trump’s federal immigration crackdown in Minnesota earlier this year, which led to two U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)-involved shootings, has also complicated Tafoya’s efforts to balance her appeal to both Trump’s steady voter base and independent voters who may be more reluctant to support Republicans in statewide elections.

“The fraud thing — that it hangs over the state of Minnesota — certainly is a bit of a drag for Democrats, but at the same time, the Trump administration, I still think, is a bigger drag on the Republicans,” said former Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DLF) Party chair Mike Erlandson.

Tafoya has taken steps in recent weeks to distance herself from the president.

When asked for a reaction to the president’s endorsement at a Monday night debate, Tafoya said, “There is one endorsement that I care about and that is the one that happens on Nov. 3.”

Tafoya criticized the president over the war in Iran during a recent interview with CBS News , saying “the war in Iran has gone on longer than I think people were ready for and we’re suffering at the gas pump.” Earlier this year, the GOP candidate caught flak for suggesting people should make “one less trip to Starbucks” to save on gas, and that the country should be supporting its military while it’s engaged in the conflict.

In a midterm environment that historically serves as a referendum on the party in power, Democrats have made no secret about tying Tafoya to Trump and the national GOP.

A Flanagan campaign official pointed out that Tafoya “earned” her endorsement from Trump by being loyal to him and his policies, noting her support of him in the past.

“In the last month before the election, she wants to try and walk away from all the positions that she’s been holding for years,” the spokesperson told The Hill, arguing that her recent stepping away from the president was inconsistent with her earlier positions.

And national Democrats feel confident about their odds of keeping the state within the fold give their recent track record. They point out, too, that national Republican groups have spent little money on the contest, which they say is an acknowledgement from within the GOP that the race isn’t in play.

“Republicans haven’t won a Minnesota Senate race in more than 20 years and that losing streak will continue in 2026 when Minnesotans elect Democrat Peggy Flanagan,” Maddy McDaniel, a spokeswoman for the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, who dubbed Tafoya as “a Trump loyalist and a wealthy Republican activist.”

Some Republicans say the anti-incumbent energy could hit the parties either way.

“We have also a large number of undecideds in these polls, and I think they’re truly undecided because I think that it depends on the day,” said former GOP Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Amy Frederiksen, who’s not working on the Senate race.

“They go and fill up their tank, and they’re ticked off about Iran and tariffs,” she said, adding that “the next news story they see is … another 10 million or another 15 million stolen, and nobody did anything about it,” referring to the statewide fraud scandal.