Cook Political Report shifts 4 governors’ races toward Democrats

Cook Political Report is shifting four gubernatorial races in Democrats’ favor, the nonpartisan election handicapper said Tuesday, all in states which currently have Republican governors.

Among the most notable shifts is Alaska, which moved from a “tossup” to “lean Democrat.” Three Republicans and one Democrat are vying for the state’s governor’s mansion, which is currently held by GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy. In 2022, Dunleavy won reelection by more than 25 percentage points in a three-way race.

The rating shift in Alaska — as well as in Nebraska, Vermont and Oklahoma — come as polls show Democrats gaining ground in traditionally red areas less than a month out from November’s midterms.

Cook Political Report wrote that former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D-Alaska) is polling far ahead of the three Republican candidates in the race. Among the GOP’s nominees, conservative activist Bernadette Wilson is leading the pack.

“The concern for Republicans is that, amid a divided GOP field, Republican voters will only choose one of their candidates on their ranked-choice ballots rather than ranking multiple options, allowing Kreiss-Tomkins to consolidate a majority,” Cook editor Jessica Taylor wrote in her analysis.

In Nebraska, Cook moved the governor’s race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” as polling shows an unusually close race between Gov. Jim Pillen (R) and former state Sen. Lynne Walz (D). Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) shows the incumbent leading Walz by 5.3 points .

In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott’s (R) race against Democrat Amanda Janoo shifted from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” as recent polls have shown a closer than expected contest. The state holds gubernatorial elections every two years, and Scott won reelection in 2024 by more than 50 points.

A recent State Navigate poll of the race found Scott leading by just three points. Taylor writes in her analysis that while Cook is skeptical the race is competitive, the polls showing Scott with declining support are “worth paying attention to.”

In Oklahoma’s open gubernatorial contest, Cook changed its rating from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” GOP candidate Mike Mazzei, Oklahoma’s former budget secretary, won a primary runoff in August — likely boosted by President Trump’s endorsement. Mazzei is facing off against state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson (D).

In Taylor’s write-up, she notes that the Republican Governor’s Association recently purchased more than $2 million in ads to support Mazzei and says that private Democratic polling previously showed a competitive race.