Latest Texas Senate polls on Paxton vs. Talarico heading into midterms

Polls show Democratic nominee James Talarico with a slight lead over Republican nominee Ken Paxton in the race for Texas' key Senate seat heading into Election Day.

The race is one of seven battlegrounds that will be crucial to determining partisan control of the Senate in the midterm elections on Nov. 3.

Talarico leads Paxton by 4 percentage points, according to an average of polling by FiftyPlusOne , a site for political polling and elections.

Here's a look at the recent surveys in the race between Talarico, a member of the Texas House, and Paxton, Texas' attorney general.

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Three polls released Nov. 1 showed Talarico leading Paxton.

An AtlasIntel poll showed 51.3% of voters favored Talarico, while 45.4% backed Paxton. The poll, conducted from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1, surveyed more than 1,600 Texas adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Another poll, from Siena College and The New York Times , showed 50% of respondents supporting Talarico in the race, while 43% favored Paxton. The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points, surveyed 1,215 voters and was conducted from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1.

Additionally, a YouGov poll shows 51% of those surveyed had or would have voted for Talarico, while 47% had or would vote for Paxton.

An average of polls throughout the race from FiftyPlusOne showed Talarico and Paxton polling evenly until early April, when the Democrat began pulling slightly ahead.

Melina Khan is a national trending reporter for USA TODAY. Keep up with her on Instagram @bymelinakhan and TikTok @melina.khan2 .