Pappas leads Sununu by 7 points in New Hampshire Senate race: Poll

New Hampshire Rep. Chris Pappas (D) is leading in the state’s open U.S. Senate race against Republican nominee John E. Sununu , according to new polling released Tuesday.

The New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIP) survey , commissioned by AARP, found the Democrat holds a 7-point advantage over his Republican opponent among likely voters in the state.

The poll, which included an oversample of people aged 50 years or older, showed Pappas had a slimmer, one-point advantage among this voting demographic.

AARP’s New Hampshire state director, Christina FitzPatrick, emphasized the importance of gaining the support of older voters in this race, saying the “candidates must address their priorities.”

“With affordability a top concern for New Hampshire residents this year, candidates should tell voters how they will protect and strengthen Social Security and ensure that everyone is able to age with dignity and purpose,” FitzPatrick said in a statement.

The candidates are competing in the November race for the open seat to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).

Pappas has represented the Granite State in the House since 2019, and he has been part of the Problem Solvers Caucus since 2023.

Sununu served in both chambers of Congress for over a decade before he lost his Senate seat to Shaheen in 2008. He is related to former New Hampshire Govs. John H. Sununu and Chris Sununu.

Both candidates handily won their primary races last month to advance to the November election. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, shifted its rating in this race from “lean D” to a “toss up” following the September election.

The state has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in over a decade, although the GOP has controlled the state’s governor mansion since 2017.

The Democratic candidate has maintained a slight lead ahead of Sununu in recent polling. Pappas posted a 5-point advantage in a New York Times/Siena University poll and an 8-point advantage in a University of New Hampshire survey last month.

The AARP/NHIP survey was conducted among 1,042 likely New Hampshire voters from Sept. 28 to 29 with a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.