Cook Political Report moves three Senate races in Democrats’ favor

The Cook Political Report, an election handicapper, is shifting its odds for Senate races in Kansas, North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats.

The changes show how unfavorable the political environment continues to be for Republican candidates amid the war in Iran and the state of the economy.

These races being more competitive could spell optimism for Democrats in their chances to retake the Senate majority.

BestReviews is reader-supported and may earn an affiliate commission.

“At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at Cook. “As such, we are revising our estimate of potential pickups to two to six seats for Democrats — squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net for a majority.”

The Kansas race, once thought reliably red, has picked up steam in recent weeks. Adam Hamilton, a pastor and founder of the largest United Methodist church in the country, is running as a moderate Democrat, hoping to unseat Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas).

Hamilton has attacked Marshall over his connection to Trump and the unpopular war in Iran, while Marshall has aimed to paint Hamilton as “woke,” claiming he supports a socially liberal approach to Christian theology.

Polls show Hamilton and Marshall neck and neck, significant for a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.

National Republicans have noticed: They’re pulling money out of North Carolina and putting it in Kansas to back Marshall.

North Carolina also seems more favorable to Democrats than ever. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has been polling significantly ahead of Republican political operative Michael Whatley for much of the summer . Both parties have lessened their investment in that state in recent days, a sign that its battleground status is waning.

The race rating change for New Hampshire is notable, as Cook moved it to “toss-up” in Republicans’ favor last month . Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is running for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), while former Sen. John Sununu, a Republican who served one term in the chamber 18 years ago, is looking for a comeback.

But while Sununu hails from a prominent political family and Pappas is lesser known, the Granite State is looking friendly to Democrats again. Two polls at the tail end of September, one from AARP and one from a Republican polling group, both had Pappas up by 7.