Midterms force a reckoning on Iran war

▪ Outstanding Alaska, Mississippi ballots

The Democratic sweep that stunned much of Washington on Tuesday night could drastically shorten President Trump ’s runway to end the war in Iran, which even he conceded was a driving force in the election blowout.

When Democrats take control of the House and Senate in January, they will have new leverage over Pentagon spending, and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) made clear that his party intends to use it.

“We are going to end the war,” Schumer said at a press conference.

“We have some Republicans already who have joined us in ending the war, and the Founding Fathers had the power of the purse as one of the ways of deterring a president who does war without the consent of the American people, ” he continued.

The Trump administration has asked Congress for a $1.5 trillion defense budget for next year, including additional Pentagon spending through reconciliation. It has separately requested emergency funding to cover costs tied to the Iran war.

Some Republican lawmakers have reportedly begun talking about a year-end reconciliation bill that could include funding for the Iran war and several other GOP priorities.

That process could allow Republicans to approve the money without Democratic votes, but they have only a few weeks in session to agree on a package and get it through both chambers. They also have to address the Dec. 11 government funding deadline.

It’s unclear how many Republican lawmakers are willing to vote for more war funding after Tuesday’s losses. Both Trump and Vice President Vance said the war hurt their party at the polls.

“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote on social media. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay.”

“But everyone knows why we lost,” he added. “And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

Trump did just that. He said he agreed with the vice president’s assessment but said he doesn’t regret getting involved in the war.

“I think it’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit, short term, and probably — that’s probably, it’s true,” Trump told reporters about Vance’s comments, during an event celebrating his White House ballroom. “But at the same time, if I had it to do again, I’d have to do it again because long term, it’s the only answer. You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”

Democrats could also demand accountability from the administration by bringing another war powers resolution. In June, both chambers adopted a concurrent resolution directing Trump to halt unauthorized military activity against Iran, but concurrent resolutions don’t get sent to the president’s desk, and the White House dismissed it as not having force of law.

Democrats this time could pass a joint resolution and send it to Trump for a signature. But if he vetoed the measure, it would take two-thirds of both chambers to override his decision. Even with their new majorities and growing unease over the war among some Republicans, Democrats would need substantial GOP support to override a veto.

Democrats have also indicated they intend to scrutinize the Pentagon and its chief, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth . Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, told Axios that Hegseth “will be forced to answer” for his “chaotic and incompetent leadership.”

He could face punitive measures even before Democrats take control, as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is promising an impeachment vote when Congress returns this month, unless the Pentagon chief resigns first.

The shifting winds in Washington come as Trump weighs his next step on Iran, with The Hill reporting earlier this week that the president could be leaning toward resuming military activity in Iran over efforts to renew peace talks.

Iranian officials have cast the midterm results as a rejection of the war, but they are still bracing for Trump’s next move, warning the U.S. against more strikes but saying they are prepared to respond if necessary.

“Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and ‌we endorse this message,” Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf , Iran’s chief negotiator, wrote in a post on X.

Alexander Bolton has a new piece out for The Hill Insider on how Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) are already planning to use their majorities to constrain Trump’s agenda. High on that list, he reports, is the Iran war, which voters blame for high gas, diesel and grocery prices.

▪ The Hill : Democrats signal oversight blitz.

▪ The Hill : U.S. strikes on Iran kept quiet during midterm homestretch.

▪ CNN : What Trump’s setback could mean for Iran, Israel, Ukraine.

Los Angeles City Council member Nithya Raman is projected to defeat Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass to become the next leader of the country’s second-largest city, according to Decision Desk HQ . Raman leads by a narrow 3 points. She will be the city’s first democratic socialist mayor, though she campaigned on being independent from the Democratic Socialists of America.

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said the Trump administration will continue with deportations following Democrats’ victories in the House and Senate. Mullin has pushed back on critics’ attacks on the administration’s strict crackdown while leading the department.

An appeals court ruled in favor of New York City Zohran Mamdani’s (D) pied-à-terre tax, reversing a lower court decision . The tax would implement an annual surcharge on certain second homes worth more than $5 million and is intended to help narrow the city’s budget deficit.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) looks on as President Trump speaks with reporters, Nov. 1, 2026, at Dubuque Regional Airport in Dubuque, Iowa, en route to a campaign rally. (Jacquelyn Martin, Associated Press)

NEXT MAN UP : House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told his staff on a call Wednesday that he will not run for minority leader after the GOP lost the House, clearing the way for a potentially bitter fight over the party’s future.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) are both expected to launch bids for the role, The Hill’s Sudiksha Kochi reports. The contest seems likely to pit the establishment (Scalise) against a more conservative wing of the conference (Jordan).

Trump didn’t pick sides when asked about the race to replace Johnson on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Republican Study Committee Chair August Pfluger (R-Texas) is running against House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) for the position of minority whip. Pfluger argued in a letter to his colleagues Wednesday that “new fresh ideas” and a leadership team with a plan to win back the majority in 2028 is needed.

Kochi notes that Johnson and Emmer’s tenures in their leadership positions have been marked by deep divisions within the GOP conference, including some times when conservative hard-liners blocked legislation from advancing to the floor.

▪ The Hill : Republicans sort through election carnage for a message in new era.

▪ The Hill : GOP House incumbents swept away in blue wave.

WAITING GAME : Democrats are assured of a comfortable Senate majority in the next session of Congress, but two key states remain uncalled.

Democrat Mary Peltola narrowly leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in Alaska’s Senate race but is short of the majority she would need to avoid going to ranked-choice tabulation. Presuming that remains the case, that would mean that a couple more weeks could be needed before a winner is declared.

The true surprise nailbiter is Mississippi, where Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) trails Democrat Scott Colom by just under 2,000 votes. Ballots are still coming in, and the state allows mail-in ballots to be counted as long as they’re postmarked by Election Day and received within five business days later.

The exact number of outstanding ballots is unknown. A close final result could land the contest in court, but as The Hill’s Sophie Brams and Zach Schonfeld note , Mississippi doesn’t have any law that provides for a recount in federal elections.

That essentially leaves it up to judges to determine how to resolve disputes.

▪ The Hill : Democrats broke GOP’s grip on Texas.

▪ The Hill : Democrats’ success boosts ranks of Hispanic caucus.

MARKET RALLY : The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,569 points, or 3 percent, yesterday in its best post-midterm elections day since 1982, CNN reported, citing data from CFRA Research. Wednesday also marked the Dow’s largest gain since April 2025.

The S&P 500 rose 1.58 percent, in its second-biggest post-midterm gain since 1982. And the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.44 percent, in its biggest post-midterm gain since 2018.

A certain amount of stability that’s expected to come may be the cause.

“Wall Street loves divided government, because typically divided government doesn’t do anything, and it’s very much the case in this particular situation that it’s going to be very hard to do anything affirmative during the last two years of Trump’s administration,” Daniel Alpert , the executive chair at Westwood Capital, told The Hill’s Max Rego .

Oil prices also dropped sharply yesterday as bond yields fell, and investors weighed what the election results might mean for the future of the Iran war. Brent crude fell 8.7 percent to $94.62 a barrel, its lowest close in more than two months. Defense firms’ stocks also fell, with Lockheed Martin down nearly 7 percent.

▪ The Hill : Stocks rally after Democrats march to victory.

▪ The Hill : Stock futures soar after Democratic rout.

The president will receive an intelligence briefing at 11 a.m. He will participate in signing time at 3:30 p.m.

The Senate will meet at 10:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The House will convene at 11 a.m. for a pro forma session.

An advertisement for prediction market platform Kalshi hangs at 13th and L Streets in northwest Washington, April 1, 2026. (Allison Robbert, Associated Press)

SPOT ON: Online prediction market platforms were able to predict with remarkable accuracy the outcomes of many midterm races Tuesday, often hours before the races were called by major TV networks, The Hill’s Julia Shapero and Dominick Mastrangelo report .

Despite the growing scrutiny prediction markets have faced on Capitol Hill, traders poured billions of dollars into platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of the election, gauging with striking accuracy the public’s perception of likely outcomes.

Kalshi said its markets had correctly predicted 98 percent of House, Senate, governor, attorney general, lieutenant governor and secretary of State races. Polymarket similarly said its midterm markets were accurate in 98.4 percent of resolved races, compared with the day before the election.

In many ways, the popularity of prediction markets has the potential to change the way people wait for results to come in.

“It’s now routinely hours between when prediction markets call it versus the TV networks,” Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan wrote in a post on social platform X. “The networks hold out until absolute certainty, and the suspense keeps it entertaining all night. No knock to them, but now there’s Polymarket, and many people are realizing they want to know what’s happening in real time.”

Ross Dahlke , an expert in computational social sciences and a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, noted prediction markets “seem to be highly accurate.”

“The markets just react so quickly to new information in a way that a lot of traditional media isn’t set up to do, particularly with their concern over accuracy, fact-checking — for better or for worse,” he told The Hill.

Pre-election polls similarly had a good night on Tuesday, having mostly projected Democratic gains, but they failed to capture the scale of the party’s sweeping victory. Morning Report’s Jared Gans talked to pollsters for a piece in The Hill Insider on why polls underestimated Democrats.

▪ The Hill : Voters fiercely reject data centers.

▪ The Hill : 5 takeaways on the demographic shifts behind Democrats’ wins.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) speaks at the Republican convention on Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (Alex Brandon, Associated Press)

DUMMYMANDER DOMINOES : North Carolina Republicans’ decision to redraw the state’s congressional lines has officially backfired as Democrats flipped multiple Republican-held seats that weren’t even on most observers’ radars.

Decision Desk HQ projected Wednesday that GOP Reps. Richard Hudson , Brad Knott , Addison McDowall and Tim Moore will lose their seats to Democratic challengers. That’s in addition to an open seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards that Democrats also flipped.

Hudson’s loss is particularly notable as he serves as the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm.

Rep. Virginia Foxx is trying to hang on for another term, currently trailing Democrat Chuck Hubbard by less than 100 votes as counting continues.

Republicans in the state legislature pushed through a redistricting plan earlier this year to boost their odds at ousting Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), whom they have targeted for the past few cycles. Not only did Davis manage to hold on, but the GOP’s plan also ended up backfiring by watering down the party’s majority in redder districts.

Thanks in part to what’s being called the “dummymander,” Democrats will hold a majority of the state’s House seats for the first time in more than a decade.

This effect was arguably most pronounced in North Carolina but happened to some extent in other states as well. The Hill’s Mike Lillis breaks down for Insider where else the GOP’s redistricting plan backfired.

▪ The Hill : Democrats flip legislatures, clinch trifectas in key states.

▪ The Hill : No pro-impeachment House Republicans will be in next Congress.

▪ The Hill : Who won redistricted House seats?

You’re the lame ducks now — take the hard votes while you can , Jay Rogers writes in The Hill.

CEOs, get ready: Democratic oversight is coming for corporate America , Adonis Hoffman writes in The Hill.

Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton greets supporters during an election night event, Nov. 3, 2026, in Overland Park, Kansas. (Charlie Riedel, Associated Press)

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for the weekly news quiz!

Democrats put up a historic performance in this year’s midterms, having won at least 54 Senate seats and eyeing 250 seats or more in the House. This week’s quiz will look back at some of the memorable midterm waves for both parties.

Be sure to email your responses to jgans@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line.

How many seats in the House did Democrats net gain in the 1974 midterms in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal and Richard Nixon’s resignation?

What was the name of Newt Gingrich’s policy platform that he rode to the House Speakership during the so-called Republican Revolution of 1994?

What did George W. Bush refer to the 2006 midterms as for Republicans?

After the GOP’s sweeping victories in the 2010 midterms, Republicans easily won control of the House, while Democrats were able to hold the Senate. How long had it been since an election that yielded that split?