Cook Political Report shifts 12 more House races toward Democrats

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, on Friday shifted a dozen more House races toward Democrats in the final stretch of the midterm cycle.

The handicapper has shifted dozens of House races toward Democrats in recent weeks, and with the latest moves, it now forecasts more than 218 seats to “lean Democrat” or better, projecting a Democratic House majority of between 227 and 240 seats

Notable shifts include Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, represented by Rep. Jeff Crank (R), which moved from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up.” Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, represented by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), and the open South Carolina 1st Congressional District made the same change.

Fitzpatrick serves in one of the only districts carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

In her analysis, Cook House editor Erin Covey wrote the competitive Senate race in South Carolina between Democrat Annie Andrews and Sen. Darline Graham (R) may pull Democrats over the finish line — even in a district that Trump won by double digits two years ago.

“Currently, GOP outside groups are outspending Democrats by more than $3 million,” Covey said. “But some Republicans are still concerned it won’t be enough, particularly if Democratic Senate nominee Annie Andrews — a Charleston resident — carries this district by at least a couple of points.”

Another Pennsylvania district, the 8th Congressional District, was shifted from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) has trailed his Democratic opponent in recent polling, and Covey wrote that attacks over the lawmaker’s stock trades appear to be having an impact.

Ohio’s 9th District, represented by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), moved in the same direction. Republicans have twice redrawn Kaptur’s district in the GOP’s favor, but she has fended off challengers. The election handicapper forecasts she will once again come out on top next week.

Cook is also moving some safer Republican seats back onto the House battlefield, with Florida’s 7th and 9th congressional districts and Indiana’s 5th District moving from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

“It’s clear that Spartz, who has faced serious primary challenges, is struggling to consolidate her base,” Covey wrote of Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz (R). “Her own unpopularity, coupled with Trump’s sagging approval rating, puts this seat in contention.”

And moving from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” are North Carolina’s 5th and 9th congressional districts, New Jersey’s 2nd District and Washington’s 5th District — all districts that have GOP incumbents running for reelection.

Covey said that the wide margin in the Tar Heel State’s Senate race, where former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leads ex-Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, may hurt Republicans even in some very red seats.

“Republicans, meanwhile, are deeply concerned about low turnout in North Carolina this cycle now that national GOP groups have stopped contesting the Senate race,” Covey added.

The shifts come as Republicans have pulled spending from some key House contests. Democrats only need to flip three seats for House control, making the GOP’s margin for error more slim.

Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, is similarly bullish about Democrats in the House, giving the party an 80 percent chance of taking the majority.