5 hottest midterm battlegrounds two weeks out from Election Day

Election Day is fast approaching with voters now able to cast early ballots in many states throughout the country.

Polls are continuing to show Democrats poised for a strong performance two weeks from today, but how much they can gain is still up in the air. All eyes are on a handful of key states that are most crucial to both parties’ success next month.

Here’s the five biggest battleground states to watch down the home stretch.

The battle for the Senate could very well come down to the Lone Star State, as state Rep. James Talarico (D) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are battling in a razor-tight contest.

Talarico has narrowly led in most polls against Paxton, but it’s usually been within the margin of error. He’s trying to defy recent political history to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas in nearly 40 years.

At the same time, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa . The race was originally not expected to be particularly competitive, but it’s shown signs of tightening in these final months.

Texas Republicans are also hoping to make gains in the House following their mid-decade redistricting move last year, but that may be easier said than done .

Of all the Senate seats that Democrats are defending this year, outgoing Sen. Gary Peters ’s (D-Mich.) open seat may be the most high-profile.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed , a former Wayne County health director, and Mike Rogers , a former GOP congressman, have rallied with national figures in what’s often been a nasty fight. Those tensions were on display at the candidates’ first debate earlier this month and may be again at their next meeting Wednesday.

El-Sayed has consistently held a lead in polling over Rogers in the final months, but by no more than a few points . That’s close enough that even a small polling error — let alone a big miss like in the Democratic primary — could shift the outcome considerably.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) is favored to win the state’s open governor’s race against Rep. John James (R-Mich.). The results in these marquee contests could also have implications for a few key House races downballot.

Iowa has shifted away from Democrats in the past few election cycles, but the party is hoping to make gains in several races that could shake up the state’s leadership in D.C. and Des Moines.

State Auditor Rob Sand (D) is favored by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) to win the gubernatorial race as he faces Republican businessman Zach Lahn . Democrats haven’t won the Iowa governor’s mansion in 20 years.

The true toss-up race in the Hawkeye State is the Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D). If Democrats can win the seat, they would be in strong position to take control of the Senate.

At the same time, three out of four of the state’s congressional districts appear to be seriously competitive. Republicans swept all four in 2024.

The Buckeye State is another state that’s shifted red in the Trump era yet has competitive Senate and gubernatorial races this year.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown , perhaps Democrats’ top recruit of the cycle, is attempting a political comeback after a narrow loss two years ago. He’s a well-known brand in Ohio and is seeking to leverage that against Sen. Jon Husted (R), who was appointed to his seat just last year to fill the vacancy from Vice President Vance .

Whoever wins the race will only hold the seat for two years before they need to run again in 2028.

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton are battling in a governor’s race that appears just as competitive as the Senate contest. Acton started out as the underdog but is now narrowly favored in a toss-up race.

The most high-profile race in Pennsylvania this year may also be among the least competitive.

Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) has dominated the GOP nominee, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity , in polling and fundraising and by most analyses is expected to easily cruise to reelection. The bigger question is the length of Shapiro’s coattails.

Democrats are eyeing four congressional districts to flip this year, two of which saw Democratic incumbents lose in 2024. The Republicans are Reps. Ryan MacKenzie , Rob Bresnahan , Scott Perry and Brian Fitzpatrick .

DDHQ rates Perry as the most likely of the four to lose, while Fitzpatrick, who has developed a reputation as a moderate with cross-party appeal, is in the strongest spot. If Fitzpatrick’s race can at least get close on election night, it would be a strong sign for Democrats.

▪ NPR : What money moves suggest about the midterm outlook.

▪ The New York Times : How Pennsylvania explains the forces shaping the midterms.

SMART TAKE with NewsNation’s BLAKE BURMAN

President Trump spent Monday in Kansas trying to boost the senate campaign of Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). Overall, our partners at Decision Desk HQ give Democrats a 56 percent chance of winning the upper chamber. I asked former Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) who he believes would best be suited to control the Senate going forward. He offered this warning to his former party should they retake control.

“What they better do—hit the ground running and get the cost of living down. Get the debt down, get the cost of living down, get people’s lives in a better position if you want to lead,” Manchin told me. “If you’re going for retaliation and retribution, you’re going down a primrose path you can’t return from.”

Prices aren’t likely to suddenly and drastically get cheaper when we wake up on Nov. 4, no matter who wins. You can apply Manchin’s advice to either party going forward.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.

Voters in oil-rich Alberta overwhelmingly rejected a referendum that would have directed the province to take steps toward a vote on declaring independence from Canada. About three-quarters of the votes favored remaining in Canada , a win for Prime Minister Mark Carney as he pushes for national unity amid a standoff with Trump.

The Supreme Court declined to hear appeals from three men accused of plotting the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks who were seeking to reinstate plea deals they reached that the Pentagon nullified. Under the deals, the men were to plead guilty and give detailed confessions about their roles in exchange for the death penalty being taken off the table.

The Department of Justice has charged more than two dozen noncitizens in California on allegations that they have illegally voted or registered to vote . It’s the latest move in the administration’s push to eliminate noncitizen voting, an issue that is exceedingly rare .

FARM AID : The president announced an $8 billion program to provide relief for high diesel costs to farmers during a rally for Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) on Monday night.

An Agriculture Department release states that farmers will be able to receive a one-time payment from the fund.

The current cost of a gallon of diesel stands at about $6.32, according to AAA .

“Roger Marshall is the leader who fought for that to happen. Roger got it to happen,” Trump said of the program.

The announcement came as Trump sought to boost Marshall in the final weeks of what has become an unexpectedly close Senate race. Polls have shown Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton essentially tied in recent weeks, suggesting Democrats may be primed for a surprise flip.

Republicans have spent big on defending Marshall, with the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund investing millions of dollars in the race in the final month.

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in more than 90 years. DDHQ rates the race as “lean” Republican.

▪ The Hill Insider : The Senate map driving Trump’s late-stage blitz.

▪ The Hill : Trump to return to Texas for midterm rally.

RED FLAG: A new Hatch Act complaint was filed against three Trump administration officials — Federal Communication Commission (FCC) Chair Brendan Carr , Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick — for campaigning earlier this month with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).

The complaint, filed by Democracy Defenders Fund and Reporters Without Borders, alleges that after Trump introduced Burgum and Lutnick by their official titles, they did not “ correct the impression that each was speaking officially,” so they “appear to have used their official positions while engaged in political activity ,” which directly violates the Hatch Act.

Carr, meanwhile, noted that he was speaking in a personal capacity, according to the complaint, but “his short remarks were focused on past and pending work of the FCC.” After the rally, Carr addressed the upcoming FCC vote on an Alaskan broadband deal, writing on X, “I look forward to working with @SenDanSullivan to get the job done.”

“This is an absurd attempt by a leftist group, that is led by an Obama era political appointee, to push baseless claims,” an Interior Department spokesperson told The Hill when asked about the complaint, noting Burgum was speaking in his personal capacity.

▪ The Hill : Legal group files complaint over Ilhan Omar search.

FEMALE FOCUS: Trump signed an executive order to bolster federal research on women’s health, establishing the Women’s Health Division at the National Institutes of Health and creating a new task force at the White House.

The president credited first lady Melania Trump with pushing for the initiative, and he said the White House Women’s Health Task Force will be led by his chief of staff, Susie Wiles , and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The first lady introduced the order from the White House Rose Garden yesterday, saying it “establishes a new standard for women’s health in America.” She said the first task force meeting would take place later in the day.

▪ USA Today : Melania pushed Trump on women’s health overhaul.

STRONGMEN SUMMIT : Trump said he is open to participating in a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping .

“I would do it,” Trump told reporters yesterday, after The Wall Street Journal reported Putin earlier this month proposed a trilateral meeting to discuss the war in Ukraine.

But Trump suggested the topic of such a meeting would be “not so much on Ukraine” but rather, “We would have it to talk about weapons and denuclearization,” among other things.

Trump has come under fire, even from members of his own party, for his decision to waive sanctions on Russia to buy diesel from the country. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced the move by saying the U.S. “is on the wrong side of history.”

“Maybe it’s time for Zelensky to get someone else to negotiate,” Trump told reporters Monday, when asked about the Ukrainian leader’s remarks.

▪ The Hill : Mike Johnson warns of ‘unintended consequences’ from sanctions waiver.

▪ The Hill : Zelensky rolls the dice on combative Trump pressure campaign.

The president and vice president will make an announcement at 1:30 p.m. The president will participate in signing time at 4:30 p.m. and then depart for Greenville, N.C., to deliver remarks at 7 p.m. He will return to Washington after.

TEEING OFF : The Trump administration is embroiled in a tense legal fight over the president’s plan to shut down and renovate East Potomac Park to turn the sprawling piece of public land into a championship-style golf course.

Tensions reached a fever pitch last week after U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes , an appointee of former President Biden , scolded lawyers for the federal government over the removal of hundreds of trees from the park without providing the judge additional notice. Reyes also barred further tree-cutting work at East Potomac and is weighing a possible extension of the temporary restraining order.

But the Trump administration has taken aim at the judge, who is presiding over the case brought by a preservationist group and individual golfers, accusing her of bias and requesting she recuse herself from the case — a request she refused in a 13-page opinion released late Sunday.

“By any objective measure, the Government fails to meet the standard for recusal,” Reyes wrote in the opinion denying the request.

The president called Reyes “a crazed lunatic” and “insane” on social media. Minutes before a hearing began yesterday, Trump posted on Truth Social that the administration does not need approval from the court to move ahead with the controversial redevelopment, which includes a total revamp of East Potomac Golf Links and the erasure of miles of walking and biking trails on the island.

During the hearing, questions were raised surrounding what Interior Department officials knew about the renovation plans. Trump has said plans for renovation were already in place and set to begin on Nov. 15, when the existing public golf courses there would be closed.

Jessica Bowron , the acting director of the National Park Service, testified earlier Monday that she was not aware of plans to close the course in mid-November.

“I don’t know what to do when I keep getting different stories from the government,” Reyes said during the hearing.

▪ The Hill : Burgum: East Potomac will become ‘best course in America’ under Trump.

▪ The Hill : The Memo: Trump plan for golf course becomes battle over court’s power.

SEIZING THE MOVEMENT : Republicans are seizing on protests that have rocked France to point the finger at liberals and an immigration system they say has gotten out of hand.

French President Emmanuel Macron urged the public for calm as protests descended into rioting and looting over the weekend, vowing that “those who sought to bring down the Republic will be held accountable.” He blamed the “unrestrained violence” on “insurrectionist elements from radical far-left groups.”

The protests initially began at a high school in a Paris suburb, focused on teacher shortages and deteriorating building conditions. But it’s spread across the country and resulted in fringe riots that have led to clashes between police and French protesters.

Trump and Vance have both alleged mass immigration into France is to blame for the riots.

“The migrants have taken over France,” Trump wrote Monday morning on Truth Social. “They must CLOSE THE BORDERS, FAST!”

Vance tied the situation to what he said would happen if Democrats win back power in the midterms.

“I pray that France, a beautiful country of amazing people, will stop this madness before more of its landmarks burn,” he said over the weekend. “And I hope Americans are paying attention. This is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country.”

The Hill’s Helen Huiskes reports how the protests are becoming the latest pitch for embattled Republicans as they make a final effort to tie Democrats to socialism and out-of-control immigration before the midterms. Her latest edition of the newsletter The Movement will be out later this morning with the deep dive.

▪ The Hill : What to know as France is marred by rioting, looting.

Corruption charges once propelled MAGA. Now they may doom it , The Hill’s Chris Stirewalt writes .

How to stop Putin’s missiles before they even leave Russia , Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) writes in The Washington Post.

And finally … Next year will mark the end of an era as longtime CNN chief international anchor Christiane Amanpour announced Monday that she will leave the network in June.

Amanpour has worked at CNN for 43 years, first joining the network’s foreign desk in 1983. She served as its chief international correspondent for nearly 20 years and has hosted “Amanpour” on CNN International since 2009.

Amanpour said she made the decision after “many months of thought” and is looking forward to “interesting new projects down the line.” CNN noted that she had scaled back her hosting to a few days a week in January 2025 and will shift to once per week in January 2027 until the program ends in May.

Amanpour thanked the network and the teams she worked with covering a wide range of global conflicts, including the Bosnian War, Gulf War, Rwandan genocide and Afghanistan War.

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