Trump ties big promises to GOP midterm election wins

President Trump’s growing list of promised “goodies” if Republicans win has become more niche the closer the country gets to the midterm elections.

Trump and the GOP are hoping his big promises to voters will get them out to the polls on Election Day in less than two weeks.

From payment of a $5,000 dividend to all Americans if Republicans win to dangling investments and settlements, these Trump promises have become a staple at his campaign stops.

The efforts have drawn skeptics who question if Trump’s big promises will work, are legal or will even happen.

“The problem that Trump faces right now is that no one believes him on ending the war. On lowering prices. On giving away money. None of it,” said a former White House official. “I’m not sure if it is hurting Republican candidates, but it certainly isn’t helping.”

Trump has doubled down on some promises. He wrote in a Truth Social post last month, “When I say something, I mean it!” in regard to the dividend checks.

“I think there’s a fine line with going in and promoting what you’ve done for a district or for a state or what’s on the horizon for a district or for a state versus having it appear as a quid pro quo or worse,” said one Republican strategist.

“We’ll just see if that’s enough to swing them or if they’re just going to focus back and bounce back to the economy and general corruption issues that are influencing them anyway,” the strategist said, adding, “personally for me, I don’t like it.”

Michael Kang, a law professor at the Northwestern Pritzker School of Law, said it’s not bribery or a vote buying scheme.

“There’s no vote buying problem with that,” he said. “That’s just like saying, if you vote for us, we’re going to pass tax cuts and everyone’s going to get money back.”

The White House dismissed any criticism of the promises.

“The doomers and naysayers have consistently doubted President Trump: when he pledged to create the historic Trump Accounts, lowered prescription prices with Most Favored Nations, secured the border with no crossings, cleaned up our streets, ended taxes on tips, grew real wages, renegotiated broken trade deals, and reshored key manufacturing back to the United States,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle said in a statement.

Trump promised the $5,000 “Trump dividend” check to all American adults last month during the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas. He made it contingent on the GOP winning the midterm elections and said it had to be spent in the U.S.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) said he would introduce legislation to support the $5,000 dividend.

“I will get a bill ready so that we can get the Trump Dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election … because Republicans (and America) will win!” Moreno wrote on X after Trump made the initial announcement.

On Monday in Kansas, Trump told the audience he’ll make the sale of E15 — fuel blended with 15 percent ethanol — allowed year-round instead of being restricted during the summer months for environmental reasons, but only if GOP Sen. Roger Marshall wins reelection next month.

He said more “goodies” could be coming if the Republicans in Kansas are elected.

In North Carolina on Tuesday, Trump tied Camp Lejeune toxic water settlements to the GOP winning.

“If we don’t win, there’s no money,” he said in Greenville. “If we do win, you’re getting it. It’s going to be finally over with that nightmare that’s been going on for so many years. We will never abandon the heroes who served America.”

Last week in Kentucky, he promised a major investment of $100 million in the pharmaceutical company Antheia to revitalize the facility if Republicans win.

He said Ohio would be “very strongly” considered for the Space Force Academy if Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) prevails over Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown.

Trump has also promised millions in disaster relief to states like Iowa, Kentucky and Wisconsin, all contingent on the Republican candidates winning.

Some have called Trump out for these conditional promises.

“Wisconsinites will believe it when we see it,” Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers wrote on X about Trump’s promise of disaster aid to Wisconsin if Republican candidate Tom Tiffany wins.

“Clearly, President Trump and Congressman Tiffany are continuing to play politics with emergency aid that’s meant to help communities recover in the wake of disasters like tornadoes and floods,” he wrote. “That’s Complete and Total Bulls—.”

Trump’s approval rating hit a record low in a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released over the weekend, at 33 percent. Roughly 66 percent said they disapprove of his performance.

High costs and the Iran war have hurt Republicans and made them wary of their elections.

“We’re facing an extraordinarily cynical electorate,” Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institute, said. “So it’s hard to imagine that any of this works.”

Questions of legality have arisen, especially surrounding the $5,000 dividend Trump promised to Americans if Republicans win.

“In a lot of ways, the way the Trump administration and Donald Trump himself, the way they sort of propose things and they talk about money and politics often is very crass because it’s obviously what they are trying to incentivize people to do,” Kang said. “But in other ways I think the Trump’s administration and Trump himself, they’re very clever about just saying things in a way that avoids the kind of legal problems.”

Richard Briffault, a professor at Columbia Law School, said Trump’s promises are “constitutionally protected messages…they’re constitutionally protected speech.”

“It doesn’t really amount to the level of bribe because he’s not offering anything to any one person,” Briffault said. “I think it’s the sheer implausibility of it that takes it out of any kind of legal or ethical setting and basically makes it into empty campaign rhetoric.”

And Kamarck said she doesn’t see these promises getting Republicans extra votes.

“He’s desperate and so he keeps…taking spaghetti, throwing it against the wall and see what sticks,” Kamarck said. “He’s throwing out things to see if any of them could convince Americans to vote for Republicans in the midterms. And I don’t think it’s going to work.”

“This is totally unprecedented for presidents,” she said of the promises.