This Week on the Hill: Election Day is finally here

Washington is bracing for a consequential week that could potentially reshape the power balance on Capitol Hill next year.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), The Hill’s nonpartisan election forecasting partner, predicts Democrats will “likely” win back the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Its Senate majority projections also lean in the party’s favor.

Still, Republicans are doing everything they can to encourage voter turnout and boost GOP momentum in the final stretch, even as Americans are frustrated with the ongoing war in Iran and the state of the economy at home. And many conservatives say they don’t trust the polls.

President Trump plans to hold in-person campaign rallies in both Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. He had originally cancelled the appearances, opting for virtual events instead, before quickly reversing course. Both states are seen as key midterm battlegrounds where Republicans have appeared to lose ground this election cycle.

But the political firestorm won’t end once polls close Tuesday.

Republicans are already looking ahead to the next Congress, with leadership elections in the House GOP conference scheduled for Nov. 10 — just one week after Election Day. Members interested in leadership positions have until noon Friday to declare their intentions to run.

The leadership contest could become particularly consequential if Republicans lose their House majority. It will most certainly raise questions about whether Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will remain at the helm of the conference as minority leader.

All eyes on Election Day Tuesday: Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for a consequential midterm election that will determine which party controls the legislative branch during Trump’s final two years of presidency.

GOP leadership elections to heat up: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) have been floated as potential contenders for the minority leader role should Republicans lose the House.

Comer requests testimony on Alaska Senate probe: House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) launched an investigation last week into allegations that Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign sought to recruit candidates to peel away votes from incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) in the state’s Senate race.

Trump to hold rallies in Iowa, Kansas: Trump is making a last-minute push to prop up GOP strongholds.

Republicans and Democrats are making their final pitches to voters, as early voting is underway across much of the country.

Democrats have already vowed to ramp up oversight of the administration if they win one or both chambers, saying they will launch investigations into Trump and his inner circle while seeking to block key parts of the president’s agenda.

Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping to retain control of both chambers so they can continue to advance Trump’s priorities and stave off Democratic efforts to derail them.

Johnson told Fox News’s Laura Ingraham last week he believes polls showing big leads for Democrats are underestimating Republicans.

“I think it’s [polls are] even further off this time because more and more Republicans are unwilling to participate in these surveys,” Johnson said. “They don’t want to give their information to someone on the phone. … They’re calling it the partisan nonresponse bias.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told The Washington Sun , “We’ve done all we can do, and with the things that we can control.”

Though House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in an MS NOW interview last week that “what’s very interesting, as we race to the finish line, is that the American people now clearly and decisively trust Democrats on all the issues that matter.”

“We have a trust advantage on the economy, a trust advantage on combating inflation, a trust advantage on lowering the high cost of living, a trust advantage on the war, a trust advantage on the deficit, a trust advantage overwhelmingly on health care, and a trust advantage on immigration enforcement, which we believe should be fair, just, and humane,” he added.

Republicans to declare interest in leadership positions by Friday

Republicans will hold their leadership elections just a week after Election Day, two GOP staffers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told The Hill.

Johnson has already signaled his intention to keep his spot atop the party even if Republicans are knocked out of power. Trump last week also offered a glowing endorsement of Johnson’s leadership chops, sparking further speculation the Louisiana Republican might, in fact, buck historic trends and try to remain leader — even from the minority.

But some Republicans believe that , if Democrats win by a wide margin, Johnson will bear much of the blame, lose support within the conference and struggle to secure the votes needed to become minority leader, even if Trump wanted him there.

“I would imagine there to be more of a push for someone else, just given that over, you know, a billion dollars has been spent on the midterms alone,” another GOP staffer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told The Hill earlier this month.

Scalise and Jordan are both expected to launch bids for minority leader if Republicans lose control of the lower chamber.

A separate GOP staffer said that, if it’s a two-way race between Scalise and Jordan, Scalise would likely be better positioned than Jordan to step into the top spot given his current position as majority leader.

“I think for Scalise … it’d be an easy transition for him to step into that. But for Jordan, he’s really — how do I phrase this? He’s been a loyal soldier. He’s rallied people well, and he’s an effective politician. So I think both would do well in the role, but I think Scalise would have an easier transition just out of pure — his House leadership currently,” the staffer said.

Comer requests testimony in alleged ballot stacking scheme

Comer’s investigation follows a New York Times report that found Peltola’s campaign worked with national Democrats to recruit someone with the same name as her GOP opponent to run for the Senate and dilute the GOP vote. The former House lawmaker and implicated Democrats have denied any involvement.

Comer sent letters to Elisa Rios, Peltola’s former campaign manager, and Jerid Kurtz, a Democratic operative the Times reported was also involved in the alleged operation, requesting in-person, transcribed interviews. He requested Rios testify Thursday and Kurtz Friday.

Comer called the alleged scheme “dirty politics” and a “crime” on NewsNation’s “Morning in America” last week.

“We believe that the senator clearly is playing gutter politics, at best, and at worst, that crimes were committed,” the Kentucky Republican said. “So, we take this very seriously. I think the voters of Alaska should be offended, and hopefully we’ll learn more in the next two or three days about what all crimes were committed.”

He also noted Oversight Committee is “definitely going to take action” and is seeking answers to several key questions, including who knew about the scheme, what steps were taken to bring another Dan Sullivan onto the ballot and whether he was offered compensation for doing so.

House Oversight Committee Ranking Member Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) told CNN last week he thinks “what’s important is it appears that whoever was involved in this was fired by the Peltola campaign over the summer.”

He added he believes the “state of Alaska should take any lead in investigations.”

A source familiar with the matter told The Hill Friday Trump will hold rallies in Iowa and Kansas after all.

The in-person campaign events were rearranged for scheduling purposes in an effort to accommodate dozens of additional tele-rallies recently added to the president’s schedule, the source said.

In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is running a tough race against Democratic candidate Josh Turek for the Iowa Senate seat. Hinson has publicly tried to separate herself from Trump, calling for an immediate end to the Iran war.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report refers to Iowa as “ground zero for backlash to the effect of Trump’s tariffs and Iran War on the agriculture industry.”

And in Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) is facing off against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper, shifted the Kansas Senate race to a “toss-up” earlier this month amid growing voter dissatisfaction with the GOP over the economy.

The group noted in its analysis that it was “hesitant” to shift the race but that “a full-on Republican rescue operation appears underway for” Marshall.

The Hill’s Julia Manchester, Mike Lillis, Helen Huiskes and Ford McCracken contributed to this report.